We're through the warm-up period of bowl season. No more of this one game a day stuff. We're approaching the full-blown "ignore your responsibilities and family" portion of bowl season. The time when there are multiple games on just about every day.

It's the best time of year, and it's made even better when you're making money during it. Luckily for you, I'm here to help make sure that happens, so let's get to it.

Games of the Week

Bahamas Bowl: Ohio vs. UAB (Under 59) -- Dec. 22: They say a man would have to be insane to take an under in the Bahamas Bowl. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm that whack job. I assure you that there's a method to my madness, however. You see, Ohio has an efficient offense, but it's not one I'd consider explosive. Plus, it's strength is running the ball, and that always helps to chew up precious seconds when you need an under.

As for the UAB offense, it's not great. Sure, it's terrific that the Blazers are going to a bowl game in their first year back as a program, but UAB's offense doesn't light the world on fire. Using S&P+, its rushing offense ranks 82nd in the country while its passing attack is 107th. When it comes to explosiveness, UAB ranks 114th. So I can't help but believe that total is a wee bit too high here. You know, as long as we can avoid a triple-overtime mind-melter, and since it's the Bahamas Bowl, it's a real possibility. Ohio 27, UAB 20

Birmingham Bowl: Texas Tech vs. South Florida (Over 66.5) -- Dec. 23: Listen, I might be crazy enough to take an under in the Bahamas Bowl, but I'm not foolish enough to take one in this game. Instead, I'm going to go with the obvious answer in a game that's likely going to come down to whichever team has the ball last.

South Florida leads the AAC in points allowed this year, giving up only 22.5 points per game. That number is very misleading, though. Against teams with winning records, the Bulls defense has allowed 38.5 points per game while Texas Tech is allowing 31.8 points per game. There are going to be touchdowns, and a lot of them. South Florida 41, Texas Tech 38

Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State (-6.5) vs. Army -- Dec. 23: Fun fact for you about San Diego State coach Rocky Long. Since he took over the program, the Aztecs have played 12 games against teams that run an option attack. Long has gone 11-1 in those games, winning by an average of 12.8 points per game. The one loss -- which came to Navy in the 2014 Poinsettia Bowl -- came by a point.

San Diego State has played two options teams this season, beating Air Force 28-24 and New Mexico 35-10. The Falcons and Lobos averaged 3.21 yards per carry against an Aztecs defense that ranks 37th against the run using S&P+ this season, and Army cannot throw the football. Do you get what I'm saying yet? San Diego State 31, Army 14

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. Houston (Under 49) -- Dec. 24: I can picture it now. It's Christmas Eve, and you're surrounded by family and friends, growing frustrated because they keep trying to talk to you while you're watching the Hawaii Bowl. Can't they see you're sweating an under? Don't they realize that this third-and-three at midfield is the most crucial play of the game?

Well, fear not, because I'm quite confident about the under here. Neither team has what I'd consider to be a potent offense, and current forecasts show that there will be 14+mph winds during this game. If you've read this column before, then you know how high winds and unders go together like Christmas and capitalism. Fresno State 24, Houston 17

Cactus Bowl: UCLA (+6.5) vs. Kansas State -- Dec. 26: I do fear that this could be a scenario in which Bill Snyder tells his team before the game that he's retiring, and then they go out and play the game of their lives for their coach. I just can't rely on that happening. What I can count on is that UCLA is the far more talented team in this matchup and that I believe the Bruins are being undervalued here. Now, I also know that I'm betting on UCLA, but I don't think it's a stupid decision now that Jim Mora is no longer coaching the team.

And, yes, I would like this even if Josh Rosen isn't playing in the game. It's equal parts roster talent and fading the public. UCLA 24, Kansas State 21

Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa (-2.5) vs. Boston College -- Dec. 27: I bet you're surprised to see that I didn't take the under in this game. Now, if that's the direction you want to go here, I don't blame you, but it's just too popular an option for me. Instead, I'd rather take advantage of an Iowa team that's being underestimated.

I'm not saying the Hawkeyes are much better than Boston College, but 2.5 points just seems small. Neither team has a great offense, but Iowa's better defensively. So I expect a lower-scoring affair, but one the Hawkeyes will win. Iowa 27, Boston College 20


Last Week 2017 Overall
Pick Six4-2

54-35-1