Pick Six: Georgia takes care of Mississippi State, Oklahoma State-TCU hits the under
Trust the Process as Tom Fornelli leads you toward his best bets in Week 4 of the season
We're coming off another mediocre week in Pick Six, as I went 3-3 again last week to bring my record on the season to 11-7.
Of course, the way I look at it, I'm a Hail Mary away from going 4-2 last week and being 12-6 overall. So while I don't like the results, I'm not worried about them.
The Process is doing just fine, and I'm not going to stop trusting it anytime soon.
Games of the Week
No. 6 Oklahoma State vs. No. 16 TCU (Under 71): In our expert picks this week, I took Oklahoma State -11.5, which I liked a lot at the time. However, the line has now moved to -13.5, and I'm not nearly as confident in it. Don't get me wrong, I'm still on the Cowboys here, and I'm fully onboard the orange and black bandwagon. I'm just a lot more confident in the under in this game.
The number opened at 64.5 and quickly climbed up to 71 because everyone is enamored with Oklahoma State's offense for all the obvious reasons. But here's a fun fact about this game: it's never a high-scoring affair. Since joining the Big 12 in 2012, TCU has played Oklahoma State five times. These two teams have combined for an average of 50 points per contest, and have only once scored more than 71 points (a 49-29 Oklahoma State in in 2015). I think that trend continues on Saturday. Oklahoma State 34, TCU 20
No. 11 Georgia (-4.5) vs. No. 17 Mississippi State: I can't help but believe there's some overreacting here. I was just as impressed with Mississippi State's dismantling of LSU last week as anybody, but I'm also skeptical of how good LSU is. So while I don't want to take any credit away from the Bulldogs, I don't want to give them too much, either, and I believe this line is doing that.
This line opened with Georgia as a six-point favorite and that line was bet down pretty quickly to where it is now. I liked it then, and I really like it at 4.5 points. It's going to be a low-scoring game, as I think both offenses will struggle to move the ball, but I just like the Bulldogs at home here. Georgia 24, Mississippi State 17
Lock of the Week
No. 23 Utah (-3.5) at Arizona: On the surface, Arizona looks like a fantastic running team. The Wildcats are rushing for 328 yards per game and have scored 13 rushing touchdowns, but those numbers are misleading. A full 85 percent of Arizona's rushing yards and 12 of those 13 touchdowns came against Northern Arizona and an awful UTEP team. Against Houston, the Wildcats couldn't get much going. Utah currently has a defense that's allowing 1.66 yards per carry. That's the lowest in the nation. I just have a hard time seeing the Arizona offense getting anything going in this contest on Friday night. Utah 31, Arizona 21
Underdog of the Week
Pittsburgh (+7.5) at Georgia Tech: This is another overreaction in my estimation. Pitt got torn to shreds by Oklahoma State last week, but that Oklahoma State offense was a horrible matchup for this Pitt defense. I think the Panthers are much better suited to deal with Tech's flexbone attack. I'm not confident enough to pick Pitt straight up here (though I don't think taking Pitt +255 is a bad idea), but I really like the Panthers to cover here. Georgia Tech 30, Pittsburgh 28
Over of the Week
No. 22 San Diego State at Air Force (Over 47.5): I'm playing with fire a bit here. I had San Diego State and Stanford as my Over of the Week last week, and it didn't pan out. I believe it will this week, though. San Diego State's run defense has been solid and was the reason it beat Stanford last week, but now it has to take on an option offense the week after coming off a huge upset. There could be a letdown here, but even though I expect the Aztecs to win, I believe the Falcons will give them fits for a while too. San Diego State 30, Air Force 24
Under of the Week
No. 15 Auburn at Missouri (Under 60): There has been so much attention on Missouri's defense and how bad it is that everyone's glancing past its offense. Yes, Mizzou scored 72 points against Missouri State. Good for it. In the last two weeks, however, the Tigers have managed only 16 points against South Carolina and Purdue. Auburn has a better defense than either of those two, and Mizzou looks like a team that's already waiting for the season to end. Throw in some kinks in the Auburn offense as well, and that number just seems too high to not go under here. Auburn 38, Missouri 13
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