Pick Six: Texas can keep things close with Oklahoma, Auburn gets past LSU
Trust the Process as Tom Fornelli leads you toward his best bets for Week 7 of the season
Pick Six is finally off the run of 3-3 weeks, as I went 4-2 in my picks last week. That's not the ultimate goal here, but hey, baby steps.
Actually, you know what? Screw baby steps, let's just take a giant leap for mankind. I'm ready for a 6-0 week, so let's get to it.
Games of the Week
Texas (+7.5) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (in Dallas): It's the biggest game of the weekend, though it would have a little more appeal if Oklahoma weren't just coming off a loss to Iowa State last week. Now, while I expect Oklahoma to come correct this week for Texas, last week's loss still has me concerned. In fact, Oklahoma's win over Baylor a few weeks ago has me worried too.
After kicking butt and taking names to start the season, the Sooners have failed to cover two weeks in a row. Furthermore, the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by an average of 5.7 points, and that includes two Oklahoma wins. In fact, the last time this game had a deficit greater than seven points was four years ago when Texas beat Oklahoma 36-20.
Oh, there is one more odd trend I can't help but notice, and it is certainly affected by this annual meeting in the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Texas is 4-1 ATS in its previous five. I'll take the Horns and the points. Oklahoma 34, Texas 28
No. 10 Auburn (-6.5) at LSU: Do not be fooled by LSU's win over Florida last week. A 17-16 victory over an average team thanks to a botched extra point doesn't exactly erase the fact LSU lost at home to Troy a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Auburn is one of the three teams in the SEC this season we think we can rely on.
Auburn got off to a slow start this year, but has covered in three straight and are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games following a win. On the other side of that coin, LSU is 1-5 ATS this season (hasn't covered in its last five), 0-4-1 ATS in its previous five home games and hasn't covered in any of its last four games against a team with a winning record.
If Troy can run on LSU, Auburn can too. Give me the orange and blue tigers over the purple and yellow ones. Auburn 27, LSU 14
Lock of the Week
UCLA (-1) at Arizona: There's a part of me that's scared to rely on UCLA and Jim Mora, but I feel quite safe here. This line opened with Arizona as a two-point favorite and everybody with a brain cell immediately jumped on the Bruins, pushing the line to where we see it now. Arizona is coming off a nice win last week, but it needed 327 rushing yards from Khalil Tate to get past Colorado. Oh, and since Jim Mora and Rich Rodriguez both took over these teams in 2012, the Bruins have gone 5-0 against the Wildcats. UCLA 41, Arizona 31
Underdog of the Week
Wyoming (+3) at Utah State: I just think the wrong team is favored here. Utah State is 3-3, but its wins have come against Idaho State, San Jose State and BYU. I'm not trying to say Wyoming is stacking bodies itself; I just believe this line overestimates the Aggies a bit. Plus, Wyoming is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Mountain West games. Utah State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight conference games. Give me the Cowboys. Wyoming 28, Utah State 24
Over of the Week
Old Dominion at Marshall (Over 51.5): Old Dominion games tend to go over, particularly when it's playing in conference. In fact, 12 of the last 16 conference games the Monarchs have played have hit the over, and that 51.5 points just looks a little too low to me. Marshall 35, Old Dominion 24
Under of the Week
UConn at Temple (Under 61.5): So far this season I have picked a game with a total of 61.5 points for the Under of the Week twice. Both times the over has hit in those games, and they've been the only times I've gotten an Under of the Week wrong this season. So maybe I'm playing with fire here, or maybe the third time's the charm. Also, Temple has been a rock when it comes to pulling through on the unders since last season. Sometimes you just have to go with what you know. Temple 31, UConn 20
| ||Last Week||2017 Overall|
|Games of the week||2-0||8-4|
|Lock of the week||1-0||3-3|
|Underdog of the week||0-1||3-3|
|Over of the week||1-0||3-3|
|Under of the week||0-1||4-2|
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