Picking the 10 best over-under bets for Week 8 in college football
Robby is heavy on the unders in a look at the 10 best point total picks for Week 8.
We've crossed over the halfway point of the college football season and I still sit exactly at .500 with a 35-35 record in over-under picks after another 5-5 week.
Week 8's slate of games is widely considered one of the worst of the season, but hopefully we can find some winners in this sea of mediocrity.
Here are my 10 favorite over and under plays for Week 8 of the college football season.
Memphis at Tulsa UNDER 75: I know what you're thinking. "Robby, Memphis is the fourth-leading scoring offense in the nation at 46 points per game! You're taking the under?"
Yes, indeed I am taking the under when the Tigers stroll into Tulsa on Friday. Upsetting Ole Miss on Saturday had to have been emotionally taxing -- and certainly physically draining -- and now they have to turn around and play just six days later.
I think Memphis looks a bit sluggish early, but will eventually turn it on and cruise to victory. That said, 75 points is an awful lot to cover and I see this game finishing in the high 60s rather than the 70s.
Penn State vs. Maryland UNDER 48: Against Power Five opponents, Maryland has scored 34 points in three games. 28 of those came against Ohio State in a weird spot where the team knew its coach was about to get fired so I'm sure there was some emotion there. Other than that, they found just six points against West Virginia and got goose-egged by Michigan.
Penn State's defense, led by DE Carl Nassib, should make life very difficult for the Terps. The Nittany Lions have been in just one game that's gone over 48 this season -- against San Diego State -- so, no matter how bad Maryland's defense is, it's really hard for me to see this going over.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss UNDER 66: I whiffed badly on the Aggies under against Alabama, but I'm back again this week. Ole Miss' offense since the Alabama game is averaging 28.25 points per game -- almost half of which came against New Mexico State.
The Aggies just got battered by the Alabama running game, but that's not what Ole Miss does. The Rebels want to throw the ball and Texas A&M's pass defense is very good -- 25th in the country.
Texas A&M can't throw three pick-sixes again, right? If they can avoid a disaster like that again, I think Myles Garrett and company get after Chad Kelly and this game hangs in the mid-to-high 50s.
Missouri at Vanderbilt UNDER 35: Neither of these teams have hit an over all year -- Vanderbilt is 5-0-1 (1 push), while Missouri is 7-0 on unders.
Missouri has played in two different games this year that have finished with 9-6 final scores. I think it's far more likely that this game ends with that score again than it is that these two teams get more than 35 combined points.
Missouri hasn't played in a game that got over 34 points since Week 2 against Arkansas State. The Tigers have a great defense and a horrible offense. The Commodores have a good defense and a horrendous offense. I love this under and let's hope, for hilarity's sake, we get another 9-6 game.
Boston College at Louisville UNDER 37.5: I hopped off the Boston College under bandwagon on a hunch last week and it paid off. Clemson dropped 34 on the Eagles in a game that cruised well beyond the total. I'm back now because Louisville's offense is most certainly not Clemson's.
Prior to last week, the Eagles had allowed a grand total of 43 points in six games. Take out the Maine game and Boston College scored 48 points in five games. Watching a Boston College is demoralizing because that defense plays so hard and so well, only to see the offense flail around miserably.
Northwestern at Nebraska UNDER 48.5: Northwestern's offense is just so bad -- unfathomably bad. The defense appears to have had enough of carrying the team so the last two weeks it just kind of quit against Michigan and Iowa.
I think, against Nebraska, the Wildcats' defense finds its way again and holds the Huskers in the 20s, which should be more than enough to cover the inevitable four field goal effort from the Northwestern offense.
Toledo at UMass UNDER 62.5: Toledo had not hit an over all season until last week against Eastern Michigan -- a performance which I somehow predicted correctly. That offensive outburst has this line about a touchdown too high.
Toledo's averaging 34.7 points points per game this season, while giving up just 13.2 points per game. UMass' offense is not that great and will need a Herculean performance against a very good Rockets defense to get this to the over.
Toledo hangs 40 on the Minutemen and still keeps this thing a full touchdown under the total.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse OVER 51.5: Fun Fact: The Orange are the only team in the country that has hit the over in every game this season. Pittsburgh's defense just made Georgia Tech's offense look competent in Atlanta and the Panthers' offense should be able to find success against Syracuse.
The last time a Syracuse game finished with a total of 51 or fewer was their 30-17 win over Wake Forest. Take the over with the Orange.
Colorado at Oregon State OVER 60: In each team's last three games, Colorado has had the final point total cross 60 points and Oregon State's defense has given up 40 or more. This late night tilt in Corvallis has the feeling of a sloppy shootout that I think will have just enough juice to go over the number. Also, sometimes it's nice to have a little extra interest in the Pac-12 finale.
Fresno State at Air Force OVER 57: The Falcons' offense has looked shaky of late, and is coming off of a 38-23 loss to Colorado State. The good news for Air Force is that Fresno State and its 120th-ranked scoring defense are coming into town.
I think the Falcons' offense finds their way and the Bulldogs put just enough points on the board to push this over the total.
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