Picks: Sun Devils will win shootout against Red Raiders

Texas Tech's Jace Amaro is one weapon Arizona State will focus on stopping. (USATSI)
Texas Tech's Jace Amaro is one weapon Arizona State will focus on stopping. (USATSI)

After a shaky weekend, I'm 7-8 against the number on bowl picks, dropping me to four over .500 against the spread on the season. Here are today's bowl guesses:

Armed Forces: Navy 20, MTSU 17: The Blue Raiders are more balanced on offense, while Navy wrecks people on the ground. QB Keenan Reynolds (29 rushing TDs) has been fantastic and in a chilly setting, I'm going with the program that is all about overcoming circumstances. Even though Ken Niumatalolo is only 1-3 in bowl games, the way Reynolds has been playing he'll be the difference this time around. | Result: Navy 24, MTSU 6

Music City: Ole Miss 28, Ga. Tech 20: Two 7-5 teams coming off losses to their arch-rivals. The young Rebels have more firepower and with the added prep time to get ready for the Ga. Tech scheme and QB Vad Lee, should be able to win a tight game. | | Result: Ole Miss 25, Georgia Tech 17

Alamo: Oregon 48, Texas 28: Lots of emotion. Mack Brown's last game. Nick Aliotti's last game. Oregon has the much better QB (Marcus Mariota) and better scheme. Expect the Ducks to run away from UT, who is No. 92 in most 20-yard rushing plays allowed on the season. | Result: Oregon 30, Texas 7

Holiday: Arizona State 41, Texas Tech 35: Even with the Sun Devils probably not having injured Marion Grice, Taylor Kelly still has even more weapons than Tech does. And he certainly has a better O-line and a better D. (In Tech's five losses, it allowed 49 ppg.) I was tempted to pick ASU by double-digits but I expect the Red Raiders to come in focused. Also is this likely standout TE Jace Amaro's last go-round with Tech. He'll be a problem for the Sun Devils.

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