PODCAST: PredictionMachine.com GM Paul Bessire on Home Field Advantage, Week 4 Picks

According to PredictionMachine.com, Oklahoma has nearly a two-score advantage in Norman. (US Presswire)

Time to toss out the narratives and emotion, and get down to the hard numbers. Paul Bessire, General Manager of PredictionMachine.com and creator of the Predictalator, joins me to look at the impact of the first three weeks on the machine's simulations. Paul identifies the Pac-12 as the most machine-defying conference, providing the most surprises in the early season.

The Predictalator simulates every outcome of every game 50,000 times, using information based on the players they believe will be on the field. This helps the machine ignore statistics from garbage time, which is an important factor in predicting Florida State and Clemson. The simulation also takes home field advantage into consideration, and Paul reveals exactly how many points Oklahoma's advantage in Norman is worth statistically.

We also look at future props, and how the machine has adjusted since the preseason. We break down the Heisman race, and discuss the likelihood of teams being able to challenge Alabama and LSU for the top spots in the BCS standings. We also reference the PredictionMachine.com Power Rankings, which feature three SEC teams in the top three spots.

You can follow Paul and get live in-game simulation results on Twitter (@PredictMachine)

Got questions you want answered on a future podcast? Send them to podcast@cbsinteractive.com. Feedback - both love and hate - is encouraged as well.

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CBS Sports Writer

Chip Patterson has spent his young career covering college sports from the Old North State. He's been writing and talking about football and basketball for CBS Sports since 2010. You may have heard him... Full Bio

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