Projections: Francois injury scrambles ACC win probability for FSU, Clemson, Louisville

News broke on Sunday evening that Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois will miss the rest of the season after suffering a patella tendon injury in a loss to Alabama on Saturday night. It's a huge loss for the Seminoles; Francois had the potential to be one of the top quarterbacks in the country this year.

But how much of an impact will it have on the rest of the Seminoles' season?

According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, a major impact.

Before Francois' injury, and before the start of the season, Oh's projections had Florida State as the most likely team to win the ACC this season, winning the conference in over 39 percent of simulations.

TeamWinsLossesChances to win ACC

Florida State

9.2

2.8

39.4 percent

Clemson

9.1

2.9

23.4 percent

Louisville

9.2

2.8

15.0 percent

Virginia Tech

8.4

3.6

8.0 percent

Pittsburgh

8.1

3.9

6.4 percent

Miami

8.3

3.7

5.5 percent

Following the injury, Florida State's chances are down to 7.8 percent, according to the projections. There are four teams in the ACC winning the league more often in the simulations now: Clemson, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Miami, which jumped into the top five after its season-opening victory and Pitt's surprisingly close victory against Youngstown State, an FCS program.

TeamWinsLossesChances to win ACCChange

Clemson

9.3

2.7

36.7 percent

+13.3 percent

Louisville

9.5

2.5

29.0 percent

+14.0 percent

Virginia Tech

8.4

3.6

8.3 percent

+0.3 percent

Miami

8.5

3.5

7.9 percent

+2.4 percent

Florida State

7.2

4.8

7.8 percent

-31.6 percent

None of this is to say that Florida State's season is over or that its hopes of winning the ACC and maybe playing in the College Football Playoff are crushed. It's just a lot less likely to happen than it was on Saturday afternoon.

CBS Sports Writer

Tom Fornelli has been a college football writer at CBS Sports since 2010. During his time at CBS, Tom has proven time and again that he hates your favorite team and thinks your rival is a paragon of football... Full Bio

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