Purdue vs. Northwestern odds: 2018 college football picks by proven model that nailed last year's meeting

Our advanced computer model simulated Thursday's Northwestern vs. Purdue game 10,000 times

The Purdue Boilermakers host the Northwestern Wildcats to open the season, and Big Ten play, in a nationally-televised college football game on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET. Northwestern beat Nevada by 11 in its season-opener last season, while Purdue fell by a touchdown to Lamar Jackson and Louisville. Purdue is favored by one point at home, down from an open of 2.5. The over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, has risen from 48.5 all the way to 53. Before locking in any Northwestern vs. Purdue picks, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The computer model absolutely nailed the Wildcats' 23-13 victory over the Boilermakers last season, picking Northwestern (-6.5) and the under (50). And it finished in the money for its picks involving either of these teams. That was just a small part of a huge year for the advanced computer, which has now generated a stunning $4,210 profit for $100 bettors over the past three seasons, in addition to closing the bowl season on a perfect 7-0 run. Anyone who has followed it is way, way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Northwestern vs. Purdue 10,000 times to produce strong college football picks against the spread and on the over-under. We can tell you it's leaning heavily toward the under, saying it hits in a whopping 73 percent of simulations. Its bold point-spread pick, which hits in a strong 60 percent of simulations, can be found only at SportsLine. 

The model knows the Wildcats return 14 starters from last year's stellar 10-3 season that ended with a bowl win and top-20 ranking. Included among those back is three-year starting QB Clayton Thorson, who ranks No. 2 on the all-time passing list at the school with 7,548 yards.

Northwestern will need to replace Justin Jackson, who ended last year as the all-time leading rusher at Northwestern. He'll be replaced by Jeremy Larkin, who showed his promise by gaining 112 yards as a freshman last season in a 24-23 Music City Bowl win over Kentucky. LB Paddy Fisher, who had 113 tackles, second-most in the Big 10 including 22 in a win over Michigan State, leads a stout front seven.

But just because Northwestern comes in hot doesn't mean it'll win. Purdue has won 14 straight home openers, and looks to use the momentum from last year's 7-6 campaign under first-year coach Jeff Brohm. It was the program's first winning season since going 7-6 in 2012.

Elijah Sindelar and David Blough are back at QB after Brohm utilized both. Sindelar threw for 376 yards, 37 for 60, with two TDs and one INT against Northwestern last year. Brohm is keeping his QB plans under wraps -- the starter for Thursday won't be known until shortly before kickoff.

So which side of the Northwestern vs. Purdue spread hits in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the proven computer model that has returned over $4,000 for $100 bettors and absolutely nailed this game last year.