SEC picks, games, odds for Week 12: Georgia vs. Auburn, Florida vs. Missouri leads busy slate

No. 4 Georgia will head to The Plains to take on No. 12 Auburn in a rivalry game that has massive division, conference and College Football Playoff ramifications. The Bulldogs can wrap up the SEC East and maintain CFP hopes, while will throw the entire college football world into chaos if it able to spring the home upset.

No. 11 Florida will visit Missouri in a must-win game for the Gators, and No. 5 Alabama will look to get back on track in front of the cowbell-clanging crowd at Mississippi State

Let's break down and pick each SEC game this week.

2019 record straight up: 65-22 (74.7%)
2019 record against the spread 47-39-1 (54.6%)

No. 4 Georgia at No. 12 Auburn (+2.5): The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry will come down to defense. The Bulldogs haven't allowed a rushing touchdown all season and the Tigers' defensive front is one of the deepest and most experienced in the country. Defense travels, and Georgia's will show up in a big way at Jordan-Hare Stadium. It will shut down running backs D.J. Williams and JaTarvious Whitlow on the ground, force Bo Nix to win with his arm and force multiple mistakes from the true freshman quarterback. The home-and-away splits from Nix suggest otherwise, but that's only because he's played cupcake defenses at home and more athletic units on the road. Trust Georgia and quarterback Jake Fromm to pull away late. Pick: Georgia (-2.5)

No. 11 Florida at Missouri (+7): This line shot up two points almost immediately after it came out, but should have shot up even higher. The Tigers have scored 21 total points over the last three games -- losses to Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia. Are they suddenly going to get right against one of the best defenses in the country? Even if quarterback Kelly Bryant plays at 100 percent, the answer is a resounding "no." Kyle Trask and a rejuvenated offense that racked up 8.12 yards per play the last time out will roll. Pick: Florida (-7)

No. 5 Alabama at Mississippi State (+17.5): Usually when oddsmakers come out with a bizarre spread, "somebody knows something." That's not the case here. Even if the Crimson Tide hold quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back -- or hold him out completely -- there's nobody in the Bulldogs' secondary that can keep up with those receivers. What's more, running back Najee Harris will have a big day after nearly taking over the second half of the loss to LSU last week. Pick: Alabama (-17.5)

No. 1 LSU at Ole Miss (+21): Is there a concern that the Tigers could suffer a let down after the emotional win over Alabama? Sure. Is Ole Miss in position to take advantage? Nope. The Rebels have the worst pass defense in the SEC (274.2 yards per game), and will get destroyed by quarterback Joe Burrow, wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, and the dynamic Tiger passing attack. Pick: LSU (-21)

South Carolina at Texas A&M (-11): The Gamecocks were stunned by Appalachian State last week, but their defense still played reasonably well. That will continue this week against an Aggies team that has given up over seven yards per play to Mississippi State and UT-San Antonio over the last two games. Gamecocks quarterback Ryan Hilinski and wide receiver Bryan Edwards will have enough in the tank to keep them in it, but the Aggies running game will help Jimbo Fisher's crew ice it away late. Pick: South Carolina (+11)

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (+10.5): Both of these offenses have massive quarterback issues, but at least the Wildcats have pieced it together with former/future wide receiver Lynn Bowden taking the snaps and running what amounts to a modified triple option. He forces opposing defenses to play smart, disciplined football, and will take advantage of a Commodores unit that has been exploited in that department this season. Pick: Kentucky (-10.5)

So which picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? And which line is way off? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,000 in profit over the past four seasons.

College Football Writer

Barrett Sallee has been a member of the sports media in various aspects since 2001. He is currently a college football writer for CBS Sports, analyst for CBS Sports HQ and host for the SiriusXM college... Full Bio

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