The SEC's elimination of divisions, following a modern trend in the 12-team College Football Playoff era, has created one of the most wide-open conference championship races this league has seen in a long time. It helps that parity seems to be increased across the board, and no team -- outside of Texas, really -- has looked significantly better than the rest of a crowded pack near the top.
Yes, the Longhorns are a heavy favorite on sports betting apps to make it to the SEC Championship Game amid a 6-0 start to the year, but almost half of the conference still has a realistic path. In fact, there's a scenario in which eight teams could end the regular season with 10 wins.
For brevity, we won't break it down in its entirety here, but it would create an absolute nightmare when deciding which teams actually get to represent on the SEC's biggest stage. Luckily, there's a thorough protocol in place for that scenario, and the stars would have to align for that to actually happen.
Here's a reminder of the SEC football tie-breaking process, in descending order:
- The tied teams will be compared on their head-to-head record.
- The tied teams will be compared on their record against all common conference opponents.
- The tied teams will be compared on their record against the highest placed common conference opponents in the final standings, proceeding through the standings as necessary.
- The tied teams will be compared based on the combined conference record of opponents.
- The representative will be chosen based on the team rating score metric provided by SportSource Analytics.
- The representative will be chosen during a random draw of the tied teams.
The fact that so many teams still have hope now speaks to the depth of the SEC. It also makes the next month well worth keeping watching.
The SEC Championship Game takes place on Dec. 7, 2024 at Atlanta, Georgia, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here's how we handicap each team's place in a loaded race just past the midway point of the 2024 season.
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Still undefeated
Texas A&M (3-0 SEC): Hello, Mike Elko. The former Aggie defensive coordinator has done an excellent job of digging this program out of the grave that Jimbo Fisher buried it in -- and in quick order. Texas A&M is the only team that's 3-0 in SEC play thus far, an impressive feat even if its overall path hasn't been that hard. Sure, the Aggies did beat the breaks off No. 19 Missouri, but that was sandwiched between games against Florida and Arkansas. It's over the last half of the schedule that we'll find out what Texas A&M is really made of. The Aggies have to play No. 8 LSU and No. 1 Texas. Both are at home, but those are huge obstacles to the postseason. Betting odds to win conference +700
LSU (2-0): Those who wrote LSU off after (yet another) season-opening loss were premature. The Tigers have surged back into the College Football Playoff conversation, and they've never been out of the SEC picture. They certainly solidified their candidacy for Atlanta with a 29-26 overtime win against Ole Miss in Week 7. This probably won't surprise you, but LSU has a great passing attack behind the arm of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and a defense that looks at least marginally improved. The biggest hurdles left are No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama, but LSU can't discount its Week 8 road trip to Arkansas. +850
Texas (2-0): As a preseason national championship favorite and a trendy pick to make the SEC Championship Game in a first-year as a league member, Texas is right where we'd thought they be midway through the year. The Longhorns are dragging their opponents through the mud and hit a highpoint in Week 7 by beating top rival Oklahoma 34-3. Now we'll see if they really belong against perennial SEC powerhouse Georgia in Week 8. After that, the schedule really opens up before the season finale against Texas A&M. +115
The contenders
Georgia (3-1): Georgia might not look like the juggernaut that we've come to expect over the past couple of years, but the Bulldogs are still a legitimate power and a threat to win it all. They brushed that chaotic loss to Alabama aside with consecutive wins against Auburn and Mississippi State. Those aren't the toughest teams to beat -- and Georgia did look a little lackluster against the maroon Bulldogs -- but in the 2024 season it's fair to give a team credit for taking care of business when it should. Now a crucial trip to Texas is staring Georgia in the face. The 'Dawgs haven't lost two regular-season conference games since 2020. In a top-heavy SEC, a potential second defeat may shove them right out of the race. +460
Alabama (2-1): We got the full Kalen DeBoer experience during Alabama's early SEC slate. For those unfamiliar, DeBoer is famous for leading his team in thrilling, down-to-the-wire games. Normally, he escapes unscathed -- as the Crimson Tide did after blowing a huge lead against Georgia -- but Vanderbilt tagged his team a week later in one of the most stunning upsets of the season. Then, South Carolina almost pulled off one of the most stunning upsets of the season Part II before fumbling a last-second opportunity and allowing Alabama to avoid its worst start to conference play since 2007. Not that it gets any easier. The Tide now have to play three straight ranked opponents, starting with Saturday's trip to No. 11 Tennessee. +460
Tennessee (2-1): Despite a (fairly) strong start, Tennessee hasn't blown anyone away. The Vols looked like an absolute machine through their nonconference slate, but SEC play has peeled the veneer away a bit. The offense isn't operating at a high level, and Tennessee has largely had to lean on breaks from the rushing attack and a stifling defense to put teams away. It's not a terrible recipe, but it certainly didn't work against Arkansas. To beat the Alabamas and Georgias of the world, Tennessee's going to have to be more consistent on offense. +2000
What are you doing here?
Arkansas (2-1): This isn't meant in a derogatory sense, but in admiration for a couple of teams who have blown away preseason expectations. Arkansas beat (then No. 4) Tennessee in Week 6, earning its first home win against a top-five opponent since 1999 ... against No. 3 Tennessee. The Razorbacks also went 1-1 vs. Auburn and Texas A&M. They do play four ranked teams over the last half of the year, so that's quite a gauntlet. Good work so far, though. +4500
Vanderbilt (2-1): Vanderbilt's win against Alabama wasn't a fluke. The Commodores are a missed overtime field goal away from potentially being 3-0 in the conference, with two ranked wins -- and they just beat Kentucky on the road to stay above .500. Who knows what will happen when Texas rolls to town in a couple weeks? +39000
So you're telling me there's a chance ...
Missouri (1-1): Missouri certainly isn't eliminated from the SEC race by any means. Many just thought the Tigers would be better off at this point. They're helped by an easy schedule, but so far this doesn't look like a team capable of beating Alabama. +10000
Ole Miss (1-2): Perhaps the SEC's biggest disappointment thus far, Ole Miss entered the year as a dark horse to make it to Atlanta after yet another loaded transfer haul. It took approximately one SEC game for the Rebels to fall flat on their face. A loss, at home, as double-digit favorites against Kentucky was inexcusable. That loss to LSU may have put Ole Miss in a hole it can't climb out of, especially with Georgia looming on the schedule. +7500
Oklahoma (1-2): Oklahoma wasn't necessarily expected to compete for a title during its inaugural SEC season. That said, the Sooners have been a hard watch. They benched former five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold early on. That didn't really spark the offense. Losing their top-five receivers to injury certainly doesn't help, but averaging just 13 points per game in SEC play is bad business. It's certainly a letdown for a team with such a good defense. +24000
You'll get 'em next year
Florida (1-2): The Gators have had a nightmarish start to the season, but they've stayed on par. Losing quarterback Graham Mertz is a huge blow for the rest of the path. At least fans will get an extensive look at highly touted freshman DJ Lagway. +49000
South Carolina (1-3): South Carolina looked like a world-beater in a 31-6 win against Kentucky to open SEC play. The Gamecocks have since lost three straight SEC games -- all to ranked opponents -- two of which came by just one score. Good, but not good enough. Maybe that means South Carolina is close to a breakthrough. It will certainly get a chance to spoil some seasons against the likes of Texas A&M, Missouri and even Clemson down the stretch. +50000
Auburn (0-3): The quarterback situation is the story here. Payton Thorne has actually put together a couple solid games, but back-breaking mistakes against the likes of Oklahoma have characterized the Tigers' poor start. Auburn has to play three top-25 teams and Vanderbilt to close the year. +50000
Mississippi State (0-3): Jeff Lebby has a long rebuild ahead of him. The Bulldogs are showing some encouraging signs in Year 1, though. They kept it respectable in a 41-31 loss to Georgia and battled with Florida before that game got away late. Maybe they can pull the rug out from under a team this year to avoid getting skunked. +50000
Kentucky (1-3): At some point, Kentucky will hit big on a transfer quarterback. This is not that year. Brock Vandagriff's ineffective play has hampered a passing attack that currently ranks 15th in the SEC (168.3 yards per game). As such, the Wildcats rank dead last in scoring (20.5 points per game) and they have yet to put more than 20 points on the board against a league opponent. +50000