SEC Week 11 odds, picks: Georgia wins at Auburn, Alabama rolls at Mississippi State

SportsLine game forecaster turned the corner and are heading for the homestretch in the SEC, and three teams still have legitimate College Football Playoff hopes -- Alabama, Georgia and Auburn. Two of those -- Auburn and Georgia -- square off on Saturday afternoon in one of the biggest games of the season.

Who will win the "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry?" How will the rest of the SEC slate shake out? Let's make some picks and try to make you some money in the process.

Record straight up: 66-17 (7-2 last week)
Record against the spread: 46-24-4 (3-5-1 last week)
*Games without lines are not counted in the ATS record.

Main Course

No. 1 Georgia at No. 10 Auburn (+2.5)

  • SportsLine game forecaster
  • Georgia's OL needs its best effort
  • Fromm will challenge Auburn's defensive backs
  • Malzahn's play-calling will be a problem

For the second straight season, Auburn enters the "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry" with College Football Playoff hopes still flickering off in the distance. Unlike last year, Georgia's hopes are as bright as the sun. Georgia's offensive line has been a big part of the Bulldogs' ascension to the top spot in the land, and will get its toughest test of the season against a Tigers defense that features freak-show defensive end Jeff Holland and a deep and versatile interior front that plays as disciplined as any front seven in the country. They'll do it, Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm will make some clutch throws against Auburn's defensive backs and Tigers coach Gus Malzahn's play-calling issues will creep up in the second half to cost the Tigers a shot at the SEC West, SEC title and a berth in the College Football Playoff. Pick: Bulldogs (-2.5)

Strong Cocktail

No. 2 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (+14)

Injuries to linebackers Shaun Dion Hamilton and Mack Wilson last week in the win over LSU should be a legitimate concern, after the bug bit the linebacker corps earlier in the season. It doesn't matter how talented a roster is -- and Alabama's is the most talented in the country -- at some point, it's going to be an issue. It will be -- to an extent -- against Mississippi State, when quarterback Nick Fitzgerald will have a little bit of success operating coach Dan Mullen's dynamic rushing attack. But Alabama has a counterpunch in the form of a terrifying rushing attack led by Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough. That duo will act as "the closers" in this contest, and Alabama will pull away in the second half against a worn down Bulldogs defense en route to a late cover. Pick: Crimson Tide (-14)

Appetizers

Arkansas at No. 24 LSU (-17)

There's a reason why LSU is such a big favorite in this game -- the Tigers will maul the Razorbacks on both lines of scrimmage. Derrius Guice, Darrel Williams and the Tigers running backs will have a field day against a defense that is giving up 5.32 yards per carry in 2017. Conversely, LSU's front seven -- which had its best game of the season last week in the loss to Alabama -- will pressure quarterbacks Austin Allen and Cole Kelley and force several mistakes. Ed Orgeron might get creative with quarterbacks Danny Etling and Myles Brennan in this one after Brennan came in late against Alabama, but it won't be enough for Arkansas to even threaten a backdoor cover. Pick: Tigers (-17)

Florida at South Carolina (-7.5)

Jim McElwain left Florida in a world of hurt based solely on the roster this season, and interim coach Randy Shannon has been left trying to put together pieces that simply don't fit. The offensive line will struggle against the Gamecocks front, South Carolina's offense will wear down a Gators defense that lacks quality depth and quarterback Jake Bentley will further prove that he's one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the SEC with a 300-yard performance against a Gators defense that feels like it's in full-on give up mode. Pick: Gamecocks (-7.5)

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-2.5)

This is a game of styles. Vanderbilt wants to play old-school, smash-mouth football, while Kentucky would prefer to sprint up and down the field. The Wildcats will dictate the tempo of this one thanks to the running of Benny Snell, quarterback Stephen Johnson's ability to stress defenses and the inability of the Commodores defense to play at a level it was once accustomed to. Kyle Shurmur is a solid quarterback for the Commodores, but he will make one too many mistakes that will lead to a Wildcats win and cover (but take the points just in case). Pick: Wildcats (+2.5)

Tennessee at Missouri (-11)

Drew Lock has been awesome under center for Missouri this year, throwing for an SEC-best 31 touchdowns -- 11 more than second place Kyle Shurmur. That will force Tennessee into a shootout, and it simply won't be able to keep up. Vols quarterback Jarrett Guarantano could be back after exiting last weekend's win over Southern Miss with an ankle injury. Even with him, though, the beat-up Vols just aren't equipped to get into a point-a-minute game for 60 full minutes. With that said, the defense will put up more of a fight than Florida's did against Missouri last week, and keep it within the number. Pick: Volunteers (+11)

Side Dishes

Louisiana at Ole Miss (-20)

Sorry Louisiana, but no amount of rage in the Ragin' Cajuns can slow down Jordan Ta'amu -- who has been one of the most entertaining surprise players of the 2017 season. In place of an injured Shea Patterson, all Ta'amu has done is complete 71.6 percent of his passes, average 10.2 yards per attempt, add two rushing touchdowns and is one of the most electric players in the nation. Sorry, Louisiana. Not this time. Pick: Rebels (-20) 

New Mexico at Texas A&M (-19)

Good news will finally come to Aggieland, because the return of a healthy Nick Starkel as the starter at quarterback will bring back some of the magic that the Aggies had early in the season-opener against UCLA before he got hurt. Nothing against Kellen Mond. The true freshman filled in nicely for Starkel before teams forced him to win with his arm. But he hit a wall. Speaking of walls, the Lobos offense will be running into one in the form of a very aggressive Aggies defense that will force several mistakes. Pick: Aggies (-19)

College Football Writer

Barrett Sallee has been a member of the sports media in various aspects since 2001. He is currently a college football writer for CBS Sports, while also hosting on ESPNU on SiriusXM Radio channel 84, the... Full Bio

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