Picking college football games against the spread is a battle we are all destined to lose at some point. Even the sharpest sharps go cold and those stone-cold locks will break the other way when you are relying on the action of 18-22 year-olds exerting themselves physically over a 3-to-4 hour weekend window. Trends, intimate knowledge of the rosters, schemes and latest news can improve your shot at making winning picks, but sometimes you just have to follow your gut with these things.

Sometimes I'm right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I'm going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.

Last week: 4-6 (40 percent) | 2016 Season: 14-16 (47 percent)

Alabama (-43.5) vs. Kent State: This one will come down to the state of Kent State, which at the moment is not good. The Golden Flashes need to hope for short fields because of Alabama turnovers. Without them, I don't see any way they are going to march all the way down the field on the Tide. Pick: Crimson Tide -43.5

Georgia (+7) at Ole Miss: Ole Miss has to be gassed from running all those plays against the Tide last week and Georgia is buzzing about its game-winning freshman quarterback Jacob Eason. The key for Georgia's defense is to bounce back from a spotty performance against Missouri and withstand the Rebels' initial push. Chad Kelly can get hot, but Nick Chubb can limit the number of times he sees the ball. Pick: Bulldogs +7

Mississippi State (-22) at UMass: Gillette Stadium will be the setting for this juggernaut of a matchup that might be low scoring and ugly. The Bulldogs are the better team but a clunky game favors the underdog against the spread. Pick: Minutemen +22

Florida (+6.5) at Tennessee: I guess you go with the healthy quarterback. This is a monster game for the Vols, and this pick says I trust them to pull it together. Continuing this streak through the rest of the monster month they're facing is a tall order, but I think with Florida down Luke Del Rio, the Vols have a chance to strike early and win comfortably (as long as Tennessee doesn't try to get too cute and test that Gators secondary). Pick: Vols -6.5

Vanderbilt (+7.5) at Western Kentucky: I love the 'Dores but this is not a good matchup for them. Western Kentucky's offensive attack will wear on Vanderbilt's defense and eventually spring a big play or two. Do I trust Vanderbilt's offense to play catchup facing a deficit? Not at the moment. Still, with the hook on the number (7.5), I'll take Vandy to keep it to a one-touchdown game. Pick: Commodores +7.5

LSU (-3.5) at Auburn: This game sounds sweaty. The temperature is expected to be in the high 80s around kickoff in Jordan-Hare and fans on both sides will likely have sweaty palms clasped desperately clinging to the chances of a victory. Gus Malzahn can't lose a seventh straight SEC home game and expect a measured reaction from Auburn fans. He told the press this week that the last two losses have hurt worse than any others in the time he's spent at Auburn as a coach or assistant and told fans that this team was "close." Les Miles has more wiggle room with the fans but an offense (even under the direction of a new quarterback) that had trouble putting Mississippi State away last week. Expecting an ugly and sweaty game, I'll take the home dog. Pick: (Auburn) Tigers +3.5

South Carolina (+2.5) at Kentucky: It's not exactly a schedule-clearing showdown, but Gamecocks-Wildcats packs a ton of punch for two fan bases hoping their team can scrape together six wins on the schedule. It's been a one-score game each of the last three years and Kentucky has won the last two meetings. Can a coaching change turn the tables for the Gamecocks? I think so. Pick: Gamecocks +2.5

Arkansas (+6) vs. Texas A&M: It's a game so big and Southwesty that it had to be held in Jerryworld. The Razorbacks are happy to make this game a low-scoring street fight, and until recently that seemed like the kind of contest Texas A&M wanted no part of. The 2016 Aggies have a different feel, at least through three weeks of play. Myles Garrett, Daeshon Hall and the defensive front should be able to eat if the Aggies can force Arkansas into third-and-long situations thanks to some inexperience on the Hogs' offensive line. I'm guessing the game goes to seven overtimes and ends on a controversial official's ruling, so I'll take the dog. Pick: Razorbacks +6