The No. 14 Baylor Bears are just one win away from their first Big 12 title game appearance in program history. They can clinch a berth Saturday by beating the visiting and upset-minded Texas Longhorns in a key Big 12 showdown. Kickoff in the nationally-televised contest is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET from McLane Stadium. The Bears (9-1, 6-1) saw their undefeated season come to an end last week with a 34-31 loss to Oklahoma, but they need to win just one of their final two games to secure a likely rematch with the Sooners. The Longhorns (6-4, 4-3) reached the title game last year, but were eliminated from the possibility of a return trip with a 23-21 loss at Iowa State last week. The Bears are 4-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 58.5 in the latest Texas vs. Baylor odds. Before locking in your Texas vs. Baylor picks, make sure to see the college football predictions from SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel.

The Bears are 5.5-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 58.5 in the latest Texas vs. Baylor odds. Before finalizing your Baylor vs. Texas picks and college football predictions, listen to what SportsLine's resident Big 12 expert, Josh Nagel, has to say.

A Reno-based handicapper with more than 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in collegiate athletics and was SportsLine's top college football analyst last year. He is in the midst of another strong season for SportsLine members, hitting on better than 60 percent of his college football spread selections. What's more, he has had a sharp eye on these Big 12 programs, posting a stunning record of 23-6 on college football picks against the spread involving the Longhorns or Bears over the past two seasons.

Just last week, Nagel told SportsLine members to back Texas (+7) as an underdog against an Iowa State club that was in a potential flat spot following its near-upset of Oklahoma. The Longhorns lost on a field goal at the horn but covered easily to give Nagel's followers another winner. Anyone who consistently has followed him is way up.

Now, Nagel has zeroed in on Texas vs. Baylor from every angle and released another confident against the spread pick. Visit SportsLine now to see it. Here are several betting lines and trends for Texas vs. Baylor:

  • Texas vs. Baylor spread: Baylor -4
  • Texas vs. Baylor over-under: 58.5 points
  • Texas vs. Baylor money line: Baylor -190, Texas +161
  • Texas vs. Baylor: Road team has covered in four of the past five meetings.
  • BAY: Bears are 7-1 against the spread against teams with winning records.

Nagel knows the Bears can't afford a hangover from the loss to Oklahoma and potentially jeopardize their quest for the Big 12 title game with a second consecutive defeat. Of course, their first half against the Sooners was a masterpiece, as they shut down the nation's top-ranked offense and repeatedly capitalized on mistakes. Baylor went into the intermission with a commanding 31-10 edge.

Jalen Hurts and the Sooners then mounted a historic comeback, but Baylor proved its undefeated start wasn't a fluke. The Bears have hard-fought home wins over Iowa State, Texas Tech and West Virginia to their credit.

Even so, the Bears are far from a sure thing to cover the Texas vs. Baylor spread on Saturday. 

Relative to the sky-high expectations, most supporters of the Longhorns view this season as a disappointment. Coach Tom Herman told the media this week that he agrees, saying true fans have the right to be upset. Herman, who signed an extension through 2023 in the offseason, also noted this season has a chance to end on a high note if Texas can win its final two regular-season games followed by a bowl victory.

It's worth noting the Longhorns are just a few plays away from a much different season. All but one of their four losses have been by one score, continuing a trend of tight games that has seen 16 of the 37 games under Herman decided by a touchdown or less. Texas has won four straight meetings in this series, including a 23-17 home victory last year. 

Nagel is leaning under on the total, and he has broken down this matchup and identified the critical x-factor that has him all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which team to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Baylor vs. Texas? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Baylor vs. Texas spread you should jump on Saturday, all from the seasoned Big 12 expert who has hit 79 percent of his spread picks on these teams, and find out.