The 15th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones will try to defy their history and get a signature win when they face the No. 20 Texas Longhorns in a Big 12 battle Friday afternoon in Austin. The Cyclones (6-2, 5-1) have beaten the Longhorns (5-2, 4-2) just three times in 17 meetings and ISU has won just once in six road games as a ranked team. Still, the last matchup between the teams was a 23-21 Cyclones victory in Ames, and they have the nation's leading rusher in Breece Hall

Kickoff from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is set for noon ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Cyclones as one-point favorites in the latest Texas vs. Iowa State odds and has set the over-under for total points scored at 56.5. Before making any Iowa State vs. Texas picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also a sizzling 44-23 on all top-rated picks through 12 weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning over $1,200 in profit already. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas vs. Iowa State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Iowa State vs. Texas:

  • Texas vs. Iowa State: Cyclones -1
  • Texas vs. Iowa State over-under: 56.5
  • Texas vs. Iowa State money line: Cyclones -110, Longhorns -110
  • ISU: RB Breece Hall has scored at least two TDs in six of the eight games.
  • TEX: RB Bijan Robinson has 227 yards (6.1 per carry) over the last three games. 

Why Iowa State can cover

Iowa State is 20-10 against the spread as an underdog since coach Matt Campbell was hired in 2016, and Hall has found room to run against every team he has faced. He has topped 100 yards in every game, with 130 in each one since he went for 103 in the opener. Hall averages 6.5 yards per carry and takes pressure off quarterback Brock Purdy, who has passed for more than 1,700 yards with 13 TD passes. Purdy also is second on the team with 253 rushing yards.   

The Cyclones are 13-7 ATS against ranked opponents under Campbell, and Purdy has a pair of reliable options in receiver Xavier Hutchinson (team-high 41 receptions) and tight end Charlie Kolar (25). Both have four TDs, with one each in a 45-0 rout of Kansas State last week. ISU allowed just 149 total yards and had three sacks and forced three turnovers in that game. Will McDonald has a team-high 6.5 sacks and top tackler Mike Rose (63) has four interceptions.  

Why Texas can cover

Texas is 3-1-1 against the spread in its last five after scoring fewer than 20 in its previous game, and the Longhorns have scored 27 or more in every other game. They average 40.4 points, and Sam Ehlinger has thrown for 1,834 yards and 22 touchdowns. He also is the team's leading rusher with 323 yards and seven scores. The Cyclones are 1-5 on the road as a ranked team, and Ehlinger should find some holes in a defense that allows almost 230 passing yards per game.   

The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in the previous game. They face a tall task against Hall, but they rank 28th against the run, allowing 118.6 yards per game. They have playmakers at linebacker with top tacklers Joseph Ossai (48) and Juwan Mitchell (46), and 350-pound tackle Keondre Coburn should be back from an ankle injury to hold down the middle. Ossai has four sacks and has forced three fumbles.  

How to make Texas vs. Iowa State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the model suggesting Hall won't crack 100 yards and Ehlinger will face pressure from the Cyclones defense. It also says one side of the spread is hitting over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Iowa State vs. Texas? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. Iowa State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $3,600 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.