Tom Herman and the Texas Longhorns kick off their 2020 Big 12 slate on Saturday with an in-state battle against Matt Wells and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Both teams enter this game with a 1-0 record, after Texas dismantled UTEP and Texas Tech snuck by Houston Baptist in the season opener. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Tex.

William Hill lists the Longhorns as 17.5-point favorites in the latest Texas vs. Texas Tech odds, up a point from the opening line. The over-under for total points expected is 70.5, also up one point. Before making any Texas Tech vs. Texas picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,800 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 13-1 on top-rated picks through three weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning over $900 in profit already. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas vs. Texas Tech. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds from William Hill and trends for Texas Tech vs. Texas:

  • Texas vs. Texas Tech spread: Longhorns -17.5
  • Texas vs. Texas Tech over-under: 70.5 points
  • Texas vs. Texas Tech money line: Texas -800, Texas Tech +550
  • TEX: The Longhorns are 8-6 against the spread in the last 14 games
  • TTU: The Red Raiders were 4-4-1 against the spread in Big 12 games in 2019

Why Texas can cover

The Longhorns should have some big advantages against a porous Texas Tech defense. The Red Raiders were 127th in the country in total defense during the 2019 season, and that included a ranking of 128th in pass defense. In the opener, Texas Tech allowed 600 yards, including 572 yards through the air, against Houston Baptist, and Texas should be able to carve up its opponent in the passing game. 

The Longhorns accumulated 689 yards in their opener and, even with the caveat that the competition was not stellar against UTEP, Sam Ehlinger is one of the best returning quarterbacks in the country. The veteran signal-caller threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns in his 2020 debut, and Ehlinger contributed more than 4,000 total yards, including nearly 700 on the ground, and 39 touchdowns during the 2019 season.

Why Texas Tech can cover

Texas Tech is an explosive offensive team, and that was on display in the team's opener. The Red Raiders received 430 passing yards from quarterback Alan Bowman in their first victory, with the signal-caller averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Running back SaRodorick Thompson also had an impressive start to the season, rushing for 118 yards and two touchdowns against Houston Baptist. 

Defense is certainly a concern for Texas Tech in this matchup but, from a hidden yardage standpoint, the Red Raiders finished in the top five nationally in net punting in 2019, and special teams could be crucial as they pursue an upset victory on Saturday.

How to make Texas vs. Texas Tech picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. In fact, it says Texas' Keaontay Ingram rushes for just 53 yards, while Bowman throws a touchdown and an interception for the Red Raiders. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Texas Tech vs. Texas? And which side of the spread hits nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. Texas Tech spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up over $3,800 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.