The Six Pack: Stanford-Oregon, Texas A&M-Alabama among best college football picks in Week 4

We're nearly out of the hole we dug ourselves into in Week 1. After a 1-5 start to the season, The Six Pack has gone 8-4 the last two weeks to get to 9-9 on the season, and I see nothing but winners and cash in our future. We continue to put our trust in the process for Week 4, and we'll start with a big showdown in the pacific northwest.

Games of the Week

No. 7 Stanford (-1.5) at No. 20 Oregon: Both of these teams are off to 3-0 starts to the season, but one of those 3-0 starts has been more impressive than the other. Stanford has picked up a 21-point win over San Diego State (which beat Arizona State last week) and a 14-point win over USC. Oregon, meanwhile, has beaten Bowling Green, San Jose State and Portland State. Those three are a combined 2-7 on the season.

What worries me more than anything about Oregon, though, is that in three games against inferior competition, it has won, but it hasn't looked all that impressive while doing so. The Stanford offense has averaged more yards per play against San Diego State and USC than the Ducks offense did against San Jose State and Bowling Green. So, even with this game at Autzen Stadium, I can't trust this Ducks team against somebody as good as Stanford just yet. Stanford 31, Oregon 23

No. 22 Texas A&M (+27) at No. 1 Alabama: Alabama is a danged juggernaut, OK? I'm not about to sit here and tell you otherwise. To be perfectly honest, if anybody other than Alabama wins the national title this season, I'll be shocked. It just looks that much better than everybody else out there. But I'm not going to pick it to cover this spread against Texas A&M on Saturday.

The Aggies playing so well against Clemson a couple of weeks ago certainly adds confidence to the pick. I would say the odds of A&M beating Alabama in this game are nearly non-existent, but it will be able to stick within four touchdowns. Alabama 45, Texas A&M 20

Lock of the Week

Troy (-5) at UL-Monroe: Some people might be concerned about a letdown from Troy after the Trojans knocked off Nebraska in Lincoln last week, but I am not one of them. This Trojans team is good, and there's a large gap between it and most other Sun Belt teams. That will be evident this week against UL-Monroe. Plus, it doesn't hurt that Troy is 11-5 ATS on the road in conference play since the start of the 2014 season. Troy 38, UL-Monroe 20

Under of the Week

No. 17 TCU at Texas (Under 48): When people think of the Big 12, they think of offensive shootouts, but we aren't going to get one of those in Austin on Saturday night. The under has come through in five of the last six meetings between these teams, and I expect it to hit again this weekend. If you need further convincing, the under is 13-3 in TCU's last 16 road games, and since 2008, the under has gone 56-33-1 in Texas home games. TCU 24, Texas 21

SEC Rock Fight of the Week

Florida (-4.5) at Tennessee: The last time we saw Florida in an SEC game, its billion game win streak (rough estimate) over Kentucky came to an end, but the Gators rebounded nicely last week against Colorado State. This week they're on the road against another rival they dominated for a while, and as unimpressive as I've found Florida to be this season, I've found Tennessee to be even more lackluster. Through three games, the Vols are averaging .281 points per play, which ranks 92nd in the country. Finally, Tennessee is at home, and it's always profitable to bet against the Vols at Neyland. Since the 2008 season the Vols have gone 29-45-1 ATS at home, and that includes a mark of 5-16 ATS when it's a home dog. Florida 27, Tennessee 17

Bottom 25 Bet of the Week

Miami (OH) at Bowling Green (Under 55): I'm more familiar with these two teams than most seeing as how they're regulars in my Bottom 25 rankings, and if I know anything about them it's that I wouldn't expect many points in this game. The Bowling Green offense is scoring .253 points per play and Miami is scoring .163 points per play. Those numbers rank 107th and 125th respectively. Take the under. Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20

SportsLine Bonus Pick

Kansas State at No. 12 West Virginia: West Virginia welcomes Kansas State to Morgantown on Saturday. The Mountaineers are 16-point favorites and the total for the game is set at 60.5. I have a strong lean in this game, and if you'd like to see what I'm betting, head on over to SportsLine.

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CBS Sports Writer

Tom Fornelli has been a college football writer at CBS Sports since 2010. During his time at CBS, Tom has proven time and again that he hates your favorite team and thinks your rival is a paragon of football... Full Bio

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