The Six Pack: Wisconsin-Michigan, Oregon-Washington among the best college football picks in Week 7
Trust the Process with some picks from the biggest games in college football this week
It's been a frustrating season for The Process overall. After going 3-3 last week, I'm still 19-17 on the season. I have a winning record on the year, but when you factor in the vig, we're barely making any money here. Remember, though, the point of this column isn't to help you make minimal profits.
I'm confident we'll do just that this week, as I have six strong picks, and as always, we'll start with a couple of the biggest games this weekend.
Games of the Week
No. 15 Wisconsin (+8.5) at No. 12 Michigan: This game is vital to both teams, as neither can afford a second loss on the season if they want to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. I expect this to be an interesting, low-scoring game where both offenses struggle to find consistent success. Because of this, I have a strong lean toward the Badgers as they're getting more than a touchdown.
There's also the fact that, fair or not, Jim Harbaugh's Michigan teams just haven't performed as well against the Big Ten's top tier as it has the rest of the conference. And while Wisconsin hasn't looked as good as I anticipated, it's still a good team. Furthermore, the Badgers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Michigan, and the underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in those 11 games as well. Michigan 27, Wisconsin 24
No. 17 Oregon (+3.5) vs. No. 7 Washington: In gambling, just as in life, it's important to learn from your mistakes. The problem is that one of the mistakes we most often make is thinking bets we get right weren't mistakes. The truth is, sometimes they are, and I'm learning from one such mistake in this game.
A few weeks ago, I took Stanford to cover against the Ducks in Eugene, and they did. It's just ... they did so thanks to Oregon mistakes at the end of the game which resulted in a cover the Cardinal didn't deserve. In that matchup, I underestimated this Oregon team, particularly in the trenches. I've learned from that mistake. The Ducks are just as good on the lines -- and possibly better -- as Washington, and I believe Oregon has the better quarterback in this matchup as well. The fact Washington isn't nearly as good ATS on the road as it is at home only makes me more confident, as does the fact Washington is 1-6-1 ATS the last eight times it's played in Autzen Stadium. Take the Ducks. Oregon 31, Washington 27
Lock of the Week
Buffalo (-11) vs. Akron: Buffalo might be the best team in the MAC this season, and this line is off. In my estimation, the Bulls should be at least a 14-point favorite over Akron in this game, and I might be selling them a bit short. This is a team that's looked impressive against everyone but Army. Akron, meanwhile, picked up a fluky win against Northwestern thanks to a bunch of turnovers and just got crushed by a mediocre Miami (OH) team by 24 points at home last week. Buffalo 38, Akron 20
Underdog of the Week
UL-Monroe (+6.5) at Coastal Carolina: I understand why Coastal Carolina is favored in this game, as it's 3-2 with an impressive win over UAB and is at home this week. ULM, meanwhile, is 2-4, having lost four straight. While the loss to Georgia State's a head-scratcher, it's hard to hold losing to Texas A&M, Troy and Ole Miss against the Warhawks. Putting their records aside, as well as their opponents, the truth is, when you take a closer look, these two teams aren't that different. In fact, they're close enough that I'm not entirely convinced Coastal Carolina is even the best team in this matchup. Yes, the Chanticleers should be favored at home, but not by this much. Coastal Carolina 37, UL-Monroe 34
Under of the Week
Temple at Navy (Under 50.5): You may be surprised to see I only have one under play in this week's column, which goes against my typical approach. Well, there's a good reason for it: Overs are all the rage in 2018! Seriously, if you'd blindly bet $100 on the over in every college game with a total this season, you'd be 219-185-2 this season. Assuming standard juice, that's roughly a profit of $1,407.10. Still, even in the face of that trend, I find there to be plenty of value on the under in this game. These two teams have plodding offenses and don't run many plays per game. Fewer plays tend to lead to fewer points, and I don't expect all that many to be scored in this game. Temple 30, Navy 17
Late Night Game of the Week
Wyoming (+18) at Fresno State: Looking for a reason to stay up late on Saturday night? I have one for you. Fresno State's been one of the better teams in the Mountain West since Jeff Tedford came to town, but this spread is just a bit too large for my tastes, particularly with a total as low as 43. These two teams don't run many plays per game. Fresno State averages 66.2 plays per game, which ranks 112th in the country. Wyoming runs even fewer at 62.4, and that ranks 124th. So don't expect many points, and I don't think the under's a bad play here, either, but I'm more comfortable with Wyoming getting 18 points. Fresno State 24, Wyoming 10
SportsLine Pick of the Week
No. 2 Georgia at No. 13 LSU: Georgia is a 7.5-point favorite on the road against LSU this week with the total set at 50 points. I have a strong play on this game and if you'd like to see it, head over to SportsLine.
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