Hopefully by now, you've read all about my Sleepers and Breakouts (as well as Al Melchior's and Heath Cummings') and know to make them a priority on Draft Day.
But those lists don't tell the whole story. They don't give you the complete picture of the teams I assemble in my drafts. And to be fair, no list can.
Still, I felt like something was missing. It's one thing to say "I like this player at his going rate." It's another to say "... and I find myself drafting him over and over again."
So these 16 players are exactly that: The ones I find myself drafting over and over again. Some are already Sleepers or Breakouts for me. Others aren't exceptional value, really; I just like what they can do for my team in the spot I can usually draft them.
Note: Average draft position, assuming a 12-team league, is shown for both Rotisserie and Head-to-Head formats above each player's name.
Only four qualifying pitchers had a better strikeout rate than Carlos Carrasco's 10.6 per nine innings last year. Only eight pitchers had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio, and if we eliminate Bartolo Colon, who's there simply because he refuses to walk anyone, they read like a Cy Young ballot: Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Carrasco took home the hardware for the AL this year. What would surprised me is if he had the same misfortune that led to his 3.63 ERA last year, so I'm thrilled to take him after all the other aces are off the board in Round 5.
At a position where it's easy to fall behind, what with all six elite and near-elite options gone after three rounds, wouldn't it be nice to get that sort of production about when most teams are drafting their third starting pitcher?
That's what you get with Pujols, who people seem to think is in steep decline at age 36.
But he still makes contact at an extraordinary rate for a power hitter and still shows that big-time power with 40 home runs last year. Sure, the batting average has fallen considerably, but it's pretty much all in the BABIP, which tells me all those infield shifts that teams started implementing against him a few years back are working. So OK, he's not particularly useful in batting average, but I don't really see him getting worse than he was last year, when he was the sixth-best first baseman in Rotisserie leagues and the eighth-best in Head-to-Head points.
I guess 40 is just a magical number for some people because apparently now we're supposed to worry that Ortiz is suddenly going to fall off a cliff even though he gave us no hints of that at 39 or 38. He was actually at his best in the second half last year, batting .325 with a 1.102 OPS and still has that exceptional strikeout-to-walk ratio that helped transformed him from another hulking slugger to a perennial MVP candidate.
There's a non-zero chance he's a waste of a pick, sure, but generally speaking, the more disciplined hitters like Ortiz age well, as he has already demonstrated. Halfway through the draft, I'll take the guy who averaged about as many Head-to-Head points per game as Miguel Cabrera last year, thank you.
Pence broke into the big leagues in 2007 and then played 154 games or more in each of the next seven seasons. He finally had some health issues last year, serving two DL stints for the same forearm injury and another for a strained oblique, and so now he's treated like damaged goods.
The Achilles injury entering spring training probably didn't help, but he's clearly fine now, trailing only Maikel Franco and Robinson Cano for the spring lead in home runs with six, and when he was healthy last year, he was as good as ever, ranking ahead of Charlie Blackmon and J.D. Martinez in Head-to-Head points per game. Anytime you can get, say, fifth-round production in the eighth or ninth round, you should make it a priority.
The reasons Fielder tends to slip in drafts are twofold: He's only eligible at DH to begin the year and he's perceived to be just a 20-homer guy after hitting 23 in his first year back from neck surgery. But, ahem, it was first year back from neck surgery. It's not unreasonable to think he could regain some power as he distances himself from it, and even if he doesn't, he's such a good contact hitter that he's still a value.
Fielder averaged more Head-to-Head points per game than all three of Eric Hosmer, Adrian Gonzalez and Freddie Freeman last year, and while he doesn't have their first base eligibility, all it takes is five games to gain it in-season.
Ramos is rarely drafted like the dominant closer he is, perhaps because he was only competing for the role at the start of spring training and the man he was competing with, Carter Capps, was even more dominant. Or it could be the team he plays for, but it's not like the Marlins are a bottom-of-the-division ballclub -- especially not that division, where the Braves and Phillies are both in full rebuilding mode.
Ramos got 32 saves last year and didn't even inherit the role until mid-May, so I'm happy to grab him and his 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings as my top closer in Round 15.
Panik is prominently featured in my Sleepers column, so I won't give you the whole spiel here, but let's just say I enter every Head-to-Head points draft intending to make him my starting second baseman and pretty much always do.
There's a good chance only 12-to-15 second basemen are getting drafted in that format, and whether it's because he missed the end of last season with as back injury or doesn't have the name value of some of the others, he's usually one of the last even though his excellent plate discipline and doubles pop made him better than Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano on a per-game basis last year.
I just can't bring myself to reach at first base, a position where big bats seem to congregate even though it appears to be thinner than usual at the outset, and at least in Head-to-Head points leagues, I have one additional fallback in Santana, whose consistently high walk total actually counts for something in that format.
Adrian Gonzalez, who's drafted eight rounds earlier, outscored Santana by only 10.5 points last year, and that was in a down season for Santana. Give him just two more home runs, and he overtakes Gonzalez. Give him eight more, like he hit in 2014, and, well ...
This one is strictly a Rotisserie pick since Trumbo doesn't have the plate discipline to make a big impact in Head-to-Head points leagues, but what he does have is power, the kind that could put a serious dent in the home run category late.
I'm guessing it's overlooked because he has fallen short of 30 homers each of the last two years, but in between injuries during that time, he has improved as a hitter overall, cutting back on his strikeout rate to the point that he's no longer a surefire drain on batting average. I see him as sort of like Randal Grichuk -- who's a much clearer injury risk with his elbow, by the way -- but four rounds later.
OK, so I'm cheating on this one. The truth is I haven't actually been drafting Mesoraco all that much, but judging by his average draft position, I probably should be. This is a guy who, in his first opportunity to play regularly two years ago, hit 25 home runs in just 384 at-bats, who was quickly closing the gap on Buster Posey for the top spot at the position before losing just about all of last season to hip surgery.
He's back and swinging a hot bat this spring, so maybe he should be the ultimate fallback option at the position rather than J.T. Realmuto (you'll see -- just keep reading) if I miss out on Posey, even if it means pulling the trigger a couple rounds earlier.
Parra is probably the single player I draft more than any other, taking care to leave a spot open for him in three-outfielder leagues and grabbing him two or three rounds earlier than his average draft position just to be extra sure I get him.
I outline the reasons in longer form in my Breakouts column, but the bottom line is I don't see how he doesn't take his game to the next level at Coors Field. He makes too much contact not to see the effects of the thin air, and he's speedy enough and gap-hitty enough to deliver extra-base hits galore -- and possibly a career high in home runs
As you may have already read, Realmuto is my designated sleeper at catcher this year (or Breakout, technically, but whatever). It's mostly a matter of me liking the foundation he set as a high-contact gap hitter -- something to grow on as he enters his mid-20s -- but since he doesn't stand out in any one category yet, he tends to slip through the cracks.
That's especially true in one-catcher Head-to-Head points leagues, which just so happens to be Realmuto's stronger format. If I don't get Buster Posey late in Round 2 or early in Round 3 (which I also seem to do a lot), I'm pretty much always falling back on Realmuto.
It's not that I'm especially high on Fiers. It's just that everyone else is inexplicably low. I get that he was kind of a disappointment last year given the way he finished 2014, but he still struck out a batter per inning. Project a mid-threes ERA to go with it, and that's about the most you could hope to get from J.A. Happ, Jerad Eickhoff or any of the other "upside" picks getting drafted in that same range. Except Fiers is already doing it.
I mean, he threw a no hitter last year, for goodness' sake. Not a bad way to round out a mixed-league staff.
Of all the players highlighted in my Sleepers column, Valencia is the dearest to me just because no one else seems even remotely excited about him. Frankly, I could draft him as my starting third baseman in a standard mixed league and feel pretty good about it.
I never have to, of course -- and in Head-to-Head points league, as shallow as they are, I sometimes allow him to go undrafted -- but the 31-year-old had been steadily building up to last year's breakthrough in his long-awaited return to a starting role for the Athletics, during which he hit .284 with 11 home runs and an .886 OPS in 183 at-bats. If he's capable of maintaining that Kris Bryant-level production, I want it to be for me.
One of colleague Chris Towers' guiding principles is to like the players who we liked last year but don't today, believing he can extract value from the recency bias. I'm taking a page out of his book with this one. Marcus Semien was last year's Trevor Story, a newcomer shortstop whose strong spring performance backed an impressive minor-league track record -- only Semien's was even more impressive because, hello, he had a 98-walk season down there.
The Athletics believe he had to focus so much on his defense last season, cutting down from 28 errors in the first half to seven in the second half, that his offensive development took a back seat, and it's true he hit .283 with an .830 OPS over the final two months. Even without the big step forward, he's potentially a 15-homer, 15-steal guy, which is golden from a middle infielder in a Rotisserie league.
The guy hit 10 home runs in 101 at-bats last year, and the Rays apparently saw enough to make him their starter this year. He's no Mike Piazza in waiting or anything, but the chances of him hitting 20-plus homers make him an ideal last-round pick in two-catcher Rotisserie leagues.
