- Draft Prep Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
- Heath's Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts
- Scott's Top 100 prospects | Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts | Dynasty Top 100
The Rays are like everybody's least favorite part of the Moneyball movie: just a little bit caught in the middle.
They haven't made the playoffs in four years, finishing right around .500 in three of them (worse than that in the other). And though they've sold off some big-name parts during that time, hoping to extend the window of their "glory years," they've mostly failed in that endeavor. It might be time for a full-blown rebuild, and in dealing off Evan Longoria and Steven Souza and designating Corey Dickerson for assignment, they're at least flirting with the idea.
And yet ... look at their starting pitching. So much promise there with purported (though not totally substantiated) ace Chris Archer, a slow-to-develop Blake Snell and a quick-to-develop Jacob Faria. Yes, you could see them all emerging at just the same time, giving the Rays a starting five to rival Cleveland's.
But that's rarely how these things play out, and anything less probably isn't enough to compete in a division once again ruled by the Yankees and Red Sox. One reason why: The Rays don't have a single hitter in my top 150 -- and that was true even before their late-February makeover.
Rays in Scott's Top 300
| Player | Roto Rank | H2H Rank | Roto Pos Rank | H2H Pos Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Archer
TB SP
| #51 | #47 | #15 | #15 |
Alex Colome
TB RP
| #136 | #141 | #13 | #13 |
Kevin Kiermaier
TB CF
| #161 | #209 | #40 | #45 |
Wilson Ramos
TB C
| #168 | #170 | #8 | #8 |
Jake Faria
TB SP
| #174 | #138 | #45 | #45 |
Blake Snell
TB SP
| #177 | #143 | #48 | #48 |
C.J. Cron
TB 1B
| #300 | NR | #34 | #35 |
Players in Scott's Top 100 Prospects
Rays prospects
| 16 | Brent Honeywell |
| A master of five pitches, including a little-used but highly effective screwball, Honeywell has a developmental advantage over other pitching prospects that's amplified by his plus command and headiness, making him something like another Zack Grienke. Unfortunately, it'll be delayed another year because of Tommy John surgery. Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact: don't count on it | |
| 22 | Willy Adames |
| A prospect whose production has never reflected the hype, Adames had made steady, if incremental, improvement before last year, when he appeared to plateau with the move from Double-A to Triple-A. He did hit .303 with an .844 OPS over the final three months, though, and could see a big jump in homers in the bigs given today's environment. Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful | |
| 45 | Brendan McKay |
| For now, the Rays are happy to let McKay play both ways, which is unlikely to last but gives him a bigger margin for error than most prospects by allowing him to pivot to whatever he's doing best. Though drafted fourth overall primarily for his hitting prowess, he fared better as a pitcher in his first professional stint. Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact: don't count on it | |
| 72 | Jake Bauers |
| Though it'll more likely be at first base than the outfield, Bauers is poised to break into the big leagues at some point this year. Whether he'll hit for enough power to measure up at either position is a lingering question, but as with Jesse Winker , I'm willing to bet on anyone with baseline hitting ability in the juiced-ball era. Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful | |
| 74 | Jesus Sanchez |
| Sanchez's first season of full-season ball confirmed what we already saw in the short-season leagues: The guy can hit. He may not walk much or offer any real potential as a base-stealer, but he puts the bat on the ball with uncommon frequency and has shown an ability to drive it out of the park even as a teenager. Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact: don't count on it | |
| 84 | Jose De Leon |
| A year of elbow woes has taken De Leon from elite pitching prospect to forgotten man in the Rays system, fading as quickly as he emerged for the Dodgers a couple years ago. He continues to impress with the strikeouts, but the stuff comes and goes and is now accompanied by durability concerns. Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful (at SP) | |
| 90 | Christian Arroyo |
| Arroyo arrived to great (probably too much) fanfare last April but struggled and wound up missing most of the season with a hand injury that ultimately required surgery. Clearly, the Giants weren't so invested in him, shipping him to the Rays in the Evan Longoria deal, and while he can hit, he doesn't elevate the ball enough to hit for power. Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring | |
Things to Know
- If the Rays decide to punt on 2018, Chris Archer would obviously be their biggest trade chip, but Alex Colome is the most likely to be traded. Shoot, it may happen before the start of the season, as much as his name comes up. Even though he led the majors in saves last year, there's no guarantee he'd be asked to close at his new stop, what with him averaging just 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings last year, so you'll want to approach him cautiously on Draft Day.
- Because of his staggering defensive metrics, Kevin Kiermaier is actually the most valuable of the Rays in terms of WAR, but the bat is beginning to make an impact as well. If not for injuries the past two seasons, he might be a 20-homer, 25-steal guy twice over, which is a pretty big deal in Rotisserie leagues. And even in points leagues, his typically respectable strikeout rate makes him a worthy starter.
- Between Brent Honeywell, shortstop Willy Adames, first baseman Jake Bauers, third baseman Christian Arroyo and even right-hander Jose De Leon (if he's able to resuscitate his top prospect standing), the Rays are at the precipice of another full-blown youth movement, which is why they may be hesitant to tear down what they've already built. All but Honeywell figure to factor at the major-league level this season, but none is expected to claim a job right out of the gate.
- After hurrying back from a torn ACL last June, Wilson Ramos' power was about the only thing that translated from his breakout 2016 season. But he made contact at a similarly impressive rate, so there's a decent chance an offseason of rest is enough to get his other numbers in line. He ranked up there with Buster Posey in 2016, making him a reasonable middle-to-late-round gamble at a thin position.
Lineup & Rotation
| Batting order | ||
| 1 | Denard Span | DH |
| 2 | Matt Duffy | 3B |
| 3 | Kevin Kiermaier | CF |
| 4 | Wilson Ramos | C |
| 5 | Brad Miller | 2B |
| 6 | C.J. Cron | 1B |
| 7 | Carlos Gomez | RF |
| 8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | SS |
| 9 | Mallex Smith | LF |
| Pitchers | ||
| SP | Chris Archer | |
| SP | Blake Snell | |
| SP | Jacob Faria | |
| SP | Nathan Eovaldi | |
| SP | Matt Andriese | |
| CL | Alex Colome | |
| RP | Sergio Romo | |
| RP | Andrew Kittredge | |
