There has been much debate over what sort of impact a condensed schedule might have on Fantasy Baseball, and until we know the specifics of such a schedule, that debate is sure to continue.
But if our latest mock draft — the first, in fact, for a standard 12-team Rotisserie league since we found out the season would be delayed — is any indication, starting pitching seems like less of a priority.
Relative to past seasons, yes, it still goes high, so if these are the first mock draft results you're seeing, what I'm saying now won't make any sense to you. But relative to what we were seeing in February and early March, the high-end types are spread out more.
- Stephen Strasburg went 30th overall. His ADP, according to FantasyPros, is 27th.
- Clayton Kershaw went 54th. His ADP is 33.
- Aaron Nola went 57th. His ADP is 48th.
- Chris Paddack went 62nd. His ADP is 54th.
- Mike Soroka went 123rd. His ADP is 92nd.
Of course, there were some starting pitchers that went earlier than their ADP, too, so maybe it was more a case of these specific pitchers slipping in this specific draft. But as someone who has emphasized high-end pitching as much as anyone in the industry this year, I felt it: The urgency surrounding starting pitcher was less.
The theory is that over a shorter schedule, the disparity in workload will be less. Of course, high-end pitchers stand out in more ways than just workload, but there's also the matter of them having fewer chances to normalize their stats. Decreasing opportunity increases variability, so you can't be as certain over a shorter schedule that the high-end starting pitchers will be legitimately high-end.
So the risk is reduced for the lower-end types and raised for the higher-end types. That's the theory, anyway. But while I don't doubt it's technically true, I'm not sure it's true enough to shrink the gap between the two in a meaningful way.
But of course, everyone's just guessing right now. Here's who was guessing along with me this time around:
1) Brant Chesser, Baseball HQ (@BrantChesser)
2) Adam Aizer, CBS Sports (@AdamAizer)
3) Nick Mimikos, Stack Attack podcast (@NMimi)
4) Frank Stampfl, Fantasy BFFs (@Roto_Frank)
5) Tim McLeod, Prospect361
6) R.J. White, CBS Sports (@rjwhite1)
7) Joey Mellows, Baseball Brit (@BaseballBrit)
8) Chris Towers, CBS Sports (@CTowersCBS)
9) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
10) Chris Mitchell, Fantrax (@CJMitch73)
11) George Maselli, CBS Sports
12) Dan Schneier, CBS Sports (@DanSchneierNFL)
We also broke down the draft live on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, which you can listen to here while following along to the results below: