2020 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis 31-40: The case for and against Draft Day targets
You're going to see plenty of starting pitchers and high-upside sluggers going off the board in this range, but are they worth the risk?
The 2020 Fantasy baseball draft prep season is here, and this year's player pool might take some getting used to. Starting pitchers are going earlier than ever in early drafts, and stolen bases are more valuable than ever, which means if you haven't been paying attention, you could be surprised by how drafts are unfolding right now.
We're here to help you get acclimated. We've got our CBS Fantasy baseball expert Scott White's rankings. Scott White and Chris Towers have broken down every player in the list, giving you the case for drafting them and the case against, so you can make up your own mind on whether you want them on your team.and elsewhere, but if you really want to start your Fantasy baseball prep right, this is the place to begin: With our breakdown of the top-200 players for 2020, based on
We're going through No. 31 through 40 here, beginning with some potential high-upside aces and breakout sluggers to choose from. And you can find the rest right here: 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | 51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | 81-90 | 91-100 | 101-110 | 111-120 | 121-130 | 131-140 | 141-150 | 151-160 | 161-170 | 171-180 | 181-190 | 191-200
The Case For: Dude can still hit and in fact set a career high for homers in 2019, topping the previous mark by seven. He ended the year on a particularly high note, batting .325 with 21 homers and a .995 OPS after the All-Star break. With his high batting average, he remains one of the most reliable sources for one of the most difficult categories to fill -- and at a weak position, no less.
The Case Against: Altuve is no longer a reliable source for the absolute most difficult category to fill, swiping just six bases last year and 17 the year before after averaging 37.3 steals the previous six years. It all changed with a fractured kneecap a couple years ago and seems unlikely to go back. So now his worth is tied entirely to his bat, and while he has an impressive track record in that regard, last year's power surge was probably a one-time event. The possible impact of the sign-stealing scandal has to enter the back of your mind when drafting him, too. -Scott White
The Case For: At least as a hitter, Blackmon is as Blackmon always has been, delivering four straight seasons with at least 29 home runs and 111 runs scored. His .314 batting average last year brought the four-year mark to .315, so no red flags there. In fact, his entire batted-ball profile is mostly unchanged — if anything, he's hitting the ball harder and striking out less — and of course, the thin-air environment of Coors Field offers a nice safety net if his skills were to begin to erode. Altogether, it's hard to explain why a perennial late first-, early second-round type is going in Round 4 on average, so maybe you should just enjoy the discount.
The Case Against: Well, he is turning 34 this year, which puts him more at risk of decline, especially when you consider he hasn't rated as well defensively the past couple years. And while he hasn't been a big base-stealer for any of this four-year stretch, the decline from 12 in 2018 to two last year is noteworthy, given the premium placed on stolen bases. It's a thin case, but it exists. -Scott White
The Case For: Springer finally had the season we've been waiting for in 2019, as he established a new career-high in homers despite missing 40 games. He did it by maximizing his efficiency as a hitter, increasing his launch angle and hard-hit rate to new career-best rates. He swung at pitches outside of the strike zone less often than ever and grew more aggressive on the first pitch, which together led to better results overall. Springer has always teased this kind of potential, but for the first time he put it all together — and the underlying data pretty much backs it all up. He really was that good.
The Case Against: We can start with health, as Springer hasn't played more than 140 games in any of the last three seasons, and has only done it once overall. We also can't neglect to mention the Astros sign-stealing scheme, for which they were punished this offseason by MLB. We can't know what kind of impact that punishment and the increased scrutiny surrounding the team may have, but Fantasy players are going to be wary of any Astros player on Draft Day this year. Fair or not, we'll find out soon enough, but you'll have to decide for yourself if you want to trust them. -Chris Towers
The Case For: Marte found a new home after a trade to Arizona in late January, and it only helps his Fantasy appeal. The Diamondbacks give him a better lineup and home park than he had in Pittsburgh, though it's not like he needed much help to be a high-end Fantasy option. Marte is a rare five-category contributor, being one of just five players to hit at least 23 homers and steal 25 bases in 2019. The days of Marte running up elite stolen base numbers are probably gone, but as long as he can be around 25 steals, he should finish as a top-10 outfielder in Roto in 2020.
The Case Against: Players who rely primarily on their speed tend to not age quite as well as others. Now, Marte is no Dee Gordon or anything, but if he falls to the 15-steal range, all of a sudden the whole package looks a lot less appealing. There's no sign of Marte slowing down — his average sprint speed, per StatCast, was actually higher in 2019 than any year since 2015 — but that's the risk with stolen-base targets. -Chris Towers
The Case For: Giolito finally looked like the prospect we were promised in 2019, racking up huge strikeout numbers behind an improved changeup and a 2-mph uptick in velocity. And he might have been even better than the raw numbers indicate, as he carried a 5.30 ERA through the first month before the light flipped on. That happened during a late-April start against the Royals that saw him go on the IL with a hamstring injury. Upon returning, Giolito ran off a 25-start stretch with a 3.19 ERA and 205 strikeouts in 158 innings. The stuff looked as good as the results, and at just 25, Giolito looks like he's finally here to stay.
The Case Against: It's not like Giolito took a small step forward in 2019; he became an entirely different pitcher. He was going undrafted in nearly all leagues, and most analysts had given up all hope he would ever figure it out. That's a reminder that progress for young pitchers is rarely linear, but also a reminder of how tenuous Giolito's grasp on Fantasy relevance could be. If the fastball velocity ticks back down, we've seen how bad he can be. It's a lot of risk to take on at this cost. -Chris Towers
The Case For: When Castillo is on, he looks like one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he was on a lot more often in 2019 than ever before. The surface numbers are impressive enough, but Castillo started his 2019 with a 20-start stretch where he posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. It's stretches like those that will push someone to grab Castillo on Draft Day with the hopes that he puts it all together for a full season.
The Case Against: Unfortunately, Castillo ran out of gas after that stretch, putting up a 5.08 ERA over his final 12 starts, and that has been the issue for him in his career. Castillo will go through stretches where he looks like one of the half-dozen best pitchers in baseball, and then he'll follow it up with stretches where he isn't nearly as good. He is primarily a two-pitch pitcher and has struggled against lefties and with runners on base in his career. Those things are solvable, and the upside is clearly sky high, but the inconsistency can be maddening. Let someone else convince themselves this is the year he puts it all together. -Chris Towers
The Case For: Though he has underwhelmed on multiple occasions in his career, never has the enthusiasm for drafting Harper been lower than it is right now, and that's kind of surprising considering how strong he finished, batting .270 with 19 homers, 10 steals and a .941 OPS in the second half. The strikeouts, which had gotten out of control over the first two months, more or less corrected, and he never stopped crushing the ball, his xBA and xwOBA both suggesting even better times are in store. The way he ran in the second half, going a perfect 10 for 10 on steal attempts, should go a long way to restoring interest at a time when steals are scarce.
The Case Against: Harper has had some trouble staying on the field over the years and has also experienced some decline as a hitter. While he did bring the strikeouts back under control after an embarrassing start, the fact is they've been a part of his profile the past two years, limiting his batting average ceiling. As such, it'll take a fairly significant steals contribution for him to be a truly elite player again. -Scott White
The Case For: Arguably the best power hitter in the minors came up to the majors and did exactly what he was supposed to do: Hit a ton of homers. He doesn't have Aaron Judge's raw power, but Alonso does about as good a job as anyone of maximizing his power, ranking in the 89th percentile in expected slugging despite a lower ranking in exit velocity. He elevates the ball and doesn't strike out at an especially alarming rate, which helped Alonso hit a rookie record 53 homers. And he's just getting started.
The Case Against: Of course, just ask Judge how hard it is to repeat that kind of rookie season. Judge has struggled to stay healthy, but he also hasn't been able to come close to his rookie season homer pace. It's more likely Alonso had a season where pretty much everything came together in a perfect way than it is that he's hitting 50 homers again. He probably overperformed his baseline skill set, and while the homers were consistent all season, the strikeout rate jumped in the second half and his overall production fell — he hit .235 after the All-Star break compared to .280 before. The risk here is that the average bottoms out and he's a one-trick pony, and those power guys aren't hard to find these days. -Chris Towers
The Case For: If Judge stays healthy, he's got as good a chance as anyone to lead the majors in home runs. He hasn't been able to replicate his incredible 2017 in the two seasons since, but his per-162 game pace over those two seasons is still pretty incredible: a .276 average, 116 runs, 41 homers, 93 RBI and seven steals. If that's all you get from him, he's going to represent a nice return on your investment, but we also know there is even more upside beyond that. Just stay healthy.
The Case Against: Um ... what was that about staying healthy? He's already contending with a stress fracture in his rib cage that wasn't addressed in the offseason, and he won't be swinging a bat until he's pain-free. With the Coronavirus outbreak extending the offseason, maybe he still makes it back for opening day, but it's a murky timeline for sure. Then, of course, there's the fact he lost significant portions of 2018 and 2019 to injury. That could all be bad luck, but Judge is the biggest dude in the majors, and it's fair to wonder if his size might be an impediment to staying healthy. -Chris Towers and Scott White
The Case For: The list of players with more homers than Torres' as a 22-year-old includes just seven names, in case you're wondering how unlikely what he did last season was. Write it off as a product of the juiced ball or his home park if you want, but as far as we know, neither of those things is going to change for 2020. Torres has a swing geared for hitting fly balls and a home park that makes it likely more of those will go over the fence than just about any other in the game. Oh, and he's second base eligible for 2020, the weakest non-catcher position in the game these days. It's a good spot to be in.
The Case Against: What Torres did last year probably wasn't sustainable, even with his home park and the juiced ball. He hit 13 homers in 18 games against the Orioles alone, making him one of just 11 players in the last 50 seasons to hit 11 homers against the same team in one season; on average, those other 11 players hit just 76.8% as many homers the following season. Torres isn't a strong contributor outside his homers yet, so if he's more like a 30-32 homer guy like history suggests he might be, he might not stand out much even at second base. -Chris Towers
So which sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Kenta Maeda's huge breakout last season, and find out.
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