2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Dynasty top 150 rankings, complete with value ratings

How do you weigh present value against future value?

When people hear mention of dynasty leagues, oftentimes their first association is prospects. That's the fun of them, right? What's a bird in the hand when you can have one in the bush?

Well ... not exactly. True, a steady trickle of prospects is what sustains a dynasty, first supplementing the core before eventually overtaking it, but the winning never happens if the core is never established. And so often in the breathless pursuit of the Next Big Thing, the last big thing already doing the thing gets passed over.

Still, it can be tricky to balance present and future in a dynasty league, whether in speculating how many prime years an established player has left, estimating how many years before a top prospect comes through (presuming he ever does), or wondering when exactly to seize upon a 30-something who could put you over the top. Fair to say it's an inexact science.

To that end, I've devised a rank list using an inexact process that considers these three factors for prospects and established players alike:

1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2021
   
2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
   
3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his present and future value
   

Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player's ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.

Top 150 for dynasty leagues

Rank	Player	Age (on 7/1)	Present	Future	Confidence
1	Ronald Acuna ATL CF	23	5	5	5
2	Juan Soto WAS LF	22	5	5	5
3	Fernando Tatis SD SS	22	5	5	5
4	Shane Bieber CLE SP	26	5	5	5
5	Mike Trout LAA CF	29	5	4	5
6	Mookie Betts LAD RF	28	5	4	5
7	Trea Turner WAS SS	28	5	4	5
8	Trevor Story COL SS	28	5	4	5
9	Cody Bellinger LAD CF	25	5	5	4
10	Alex Bregman HOU 3B	27	5	5	4
11	Christian Yelich MIL LF	29	5	4	4
12	Jose Ramirez CLE 3B	28	5	4	4
13	Gerrit Cole NYY SP	30	5	3	5
14	Francisco Lindor CLE SS	27	5	4	4
15	Jacob deGrom NYM SP	33	5	3	5
16	Aaron Nola PHI SP	28	5	4	4
17	Lucas Giolito CHW SP	26	5	5	3
18	Corey Seager LAD SS	27	5	5	3
19	Freddie Freeman ATL 1B	31	5	3	5
20	Bryce Harper PHI RF	28	4	4	5
21	Manny Machado SD 3B	28	4	4	5
22	Ozzie Albies ATL 2B	24	4	4	5
23	Jack Flaherty STL SP	25	4	5	4
24	Walker Buehler LAD SP	26	4	5	4
25	Bo Bichette TOR SS	23	4	5	3
26	Wander Franco TB SS	20	2	5	5
27	Luis Castillo CIN SP	28	4	4	4
28	Xander Bogaerts BOS SS	28	4	4	4
29	Zac Gallen ARI SP	25	4	4	4
30	Rafael Devers BOS 3B	24	4	5	3
31	Kyle Tucker HOU LF	24	4	5	3
32	Eloy Jimenez CHW LF	24	4	5	3
33	Anthony Rendon LAA 3B	31	4	3	5
34	Trevor Bauer CIN SP	30	5	3	3
35	Nolan Arenado COL 3B	30	5	3	3
36	Luis Robert CHW CF	23	3	5	3
37	Adalberto Mondesi KC SS	25	4	5	2
38	Pete Alonso NYM 1B	26	4	4	3
39	Yordan Alvarez HOU DH	24	4	5	2
40	Keston Hiura MIL 2B	24	3	5	3
41	Vladimir Guerrero TOR 1B	22	3	5	3
42	Gleyber Torres NYY SS	24	3	4	4
43	DJ LeMahieu NYY 2B	32	5	2	4
44	Tim Anderson CHW SS	28	4	4	3
45	Brandon Woodruff MIL SP	28	4	4	3
46	MacKenzie Gore SD SP	22	2	5	4
47	Tyler Glasnow TB SP	27	4	5	2
48	Corbin Burnes MIL SP	26	4	5	2
49	Yu Darvish CHC SP	34	5	1	4
50	Jarred Kelenic SEA CF	21	2	5	3
51	Andrew Vaughn CHW 1B	23	2	5	3
52	Spencer Torkelson DET 3B	21	1	5	4
53	Dinelson Lamet SD SP	28	4	4	2
54	Blake Snell TB SP	28	4	4	2
55	Matt Olson OAK 1B	27	3	4	3
56	Zach Plesac CLE SP	26	4	4	2
57	Trent Grisham SD CF	24	3	4	3
58	Chris Paddack SD SP	25	3	5	2
59	Carlos Correa HOU SS	26	3	5	2
60	Marcell Ozuna ATL LF	30	5	3	2
61	Luke Voit NYY 1B	30	4	3	3
62	Aaron Judge NYY RF	29	5	3	2
63	J.T. Realmuto PHI C	30	4	3	3
64	George Springer HOU CF	31	4	2	4
65	Whit Merrifield KC 2B	32	4	2	4
66	Max Fried ATL SP	27	3	4	3
67	Ian Anderson ATL SP	23	3	4	3
68	Sixto Sanchez MIA RP	22	3	4	3
69	Jesus Luzardo OAK RP	23	3	4	3
70	Adley Rutschman BAL C	23	2	5	3
71	Framber Valdez HOU SP	27	4	4	2
72	Jose Berrios MIN SP	27	3	4	3
73	Javier Baez CHC SS	28	3	4	3
74	Michael Conforto NYM RF	28	3	3	4
75	Max Scherzer WAS SP	36	5	1	3
76	Clayton Kershaw LAD SP	33	5	1	3
77	Kenta Maeda MIN SP	33	5	2	2
78	Julio Rodriguez SEA RF	20	1	5	3
79	Luis Severino NYY SP	27	2	5	2
80	Ketel Marte ARI 2B	27	3	4	2
81	Cavan Biggio TOR 2B	26	3	3	3
82	Brandon Lowe TB 2B	26	3	4	2
83	Dominic Smith NYM LF	26	3	4	2
84	Jo Adell LAA CF	22	2	5	2
85	Carlos Carrasco CLE SP	34	4	1	4
86	Jose Abreu CHW 1B	34	4	1	4
87	Lance Lynn TEX SP	34	5	1	3
88	Nick Castellanos CIN RF	29	4	3	2
89	Dylan Bundy LAA SP	28	4	3	2
90	Josh Hader MIL RP	27	4	3	2
91	Dansby Swanson ATL SS	27	3	3	3
92	Stephen Strasburg WAS SP	32	4	2	3
93	Starling Marte MIA CF	32	3	2	4
94	J.D. Martinez BOS DH	33	4	2	3
95	Hyun-Jin Ryu TOR SP	34	4	1	4
96	Jose Altuve HOU 2B	31	4	3	2
97	Kyle Hendricks CHC SP	31	4	2	3
98	Zack Wheeler PHI SP	31	3	2	4
99	Sonny Gray CIN SP	31	4	2	3
100	Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B	31	4	3	2
101	Randy Arozarena TB CF	26	3	4	2
102	Yoan Moncada CHW 3B	26	3	4	2
103	Austin Meadows TB RF	26	3	4	2
104	Lourdes Gurriel TOR LF	27	3	3	3
105	Lance McCullers HOU SP	27	3	4	2
106	Mike Soroka ATL SP	23	3	4	2
107	Ke'Bryan Hayes PIT LF	24	3	4	2
108	Julio Urias LAD SP	24	3	4	2
109	Alec Bohm PHI 3B	24	3	4	2
110	Dylan Carlson STL 1B	22	3	5	1
111	Michael Kopech CHW SP	25	2	5	2
112	Nate Pearson TOR SP	24	2	5	2
113	Alex Kirilloff MIN RF	23	2	5	2
114	Mike Yastrzemski SF CF	30	4	3	2
115	Matt Chapman OAK 3B	28	3	4	2
116	Joey Gallo TEX RF	27	3	4	2
117	Jeff McNeil NYM 2B	29	3	3	3
118	Tarik Skubal DET SP	24	3	5	1
119	Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B	24	3	4	2
120	Dustin May LAD SP	23	3	4	2
121	Triston McKenzie CLE RP	23	3	4	2
122	Nick Madrigal CHW 2B	24	3	4	2
123	Sandy Alcantara MIA SP	25	3	3	3
124	Will Smith LAD C	26	3	4	2
125	Franmil Reyes CLE DH	25	3	4	2
126	German Marquez COL SP	26	3	4	2
127	Tony Gonsolin LAD SP	27	3	4	2
128	Teoscar Hernandez TOR CF	28	3	4	1
129	Zack Greinke HOU SP	37	4	1	3
130	Chris Sale BOS SP	32	2	5	1
131	Noah Syndergaard NYM SP	28	2	4	2
132	C.J. Abrams SD SS	20	1	5	2
133	Austin Martin TOR SS	22	1	5	2
134	Marco Luciano SF SS	19	1	5	2
135	Charlie Blackmon COL RF	34	4	1	3
136	Giancarlo Stanton NYY DH	31	4	2	2
137	Liam Hendriks OAK RP	32	4	2	2
138	James Karinchak CLE RP	25	4	3	1
139	Edwin Diaz NYM RP	27	4	3	1
140	Gavin Lux LAD 2B	23	2	5	1
141	Joey Bart SF C	24	2	5	1
142	Casey Mize DET SP	24	2	5	1
143	Spencer Howard PHI RP	24	2	5	1
144	Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B	29	3	3	2
145	Max Muncy LAD 1B	30	3	2	3
146	Willson Contreras CHC C	29	3	2	3
147	Salvador Perez KC C	31	3	1	4
148	Matt Manning DET SP	23	1	5	2
149	Logan Gilbert SEA RP	24	1	5	2
150	Jasson Dominguez NYY CF	18	1	5	2