2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Five players moving up in the rankings early this spring
You might want to start moving these players up your cheat sheet

You shouldn't change your mind on a player's Fantasy value based solely on spring training performance, but that isn't the same thing as saying a player can't gain value during spring training. The primary way players gain value in spring training is from playing time and position battles being sorted out. As roles come into focus values become more clear, and those speculative late-rounders can become safe mid-round picks, and that's just one way a player's value can increase in spring training. Here are five players who have moved up in my rankings since the start of spring:
1. Shohei Ohtani -- From No. 180 to 155 overall
I'm very excited about what we've seen from Ohtani so far in spring training -- you could maybe argue I'm too excited, but I think you have to be incredibly impressed by what he's done so far, especially on the pitching side. Ohtani had a lot to prove in that regard after he looked like a mess in his return from Tommy John surgery last season, walking eight of the 16 batters he faced and averaged just 93.8 mph with his fastball. I moved Ohtani down from my original rank early in camp, when he reportedly threw in the low-90s during a bullpen session, but I started to re-think that when he hit 100 in a separate session. And I moved him up again after his spring debut, during which he touched triple digits with his fastball yet again and had all of his secondary pitches working.
So, Ohtani answered the question of whether he still has the stuff that made him one of the most hyped international prospects ever without even considering his two-way skills. He'll still have to answer the question of whether he can sustain his stuff deeper into outings, and the question of whether he'll be able to stay healthy will be an open one all season. However, Ohtani looked like the guy who posted a 3.31 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 51.2 innings back in 2018, and it's not hard to see him making an impact similar to the likes of Julio Urias, Sixto Sanchez, or Dinelson Lamet, all of whom have plenty of upside as well as questions about their workload. He'll stay a bit behind the lowest of them in the ranks, but he's got upside with any of them.
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2. Victor Robles -- From No. 171 to 121 overall
I'm not ready to move Trea Turner down in my ranks for fear that he'll move from the leadoff spot to third in the order this season, but I did move Robles up when I saw him hitting at the top of the lineup to open spring. Robles will need to hit to stay at the top of the order -- he's at a .182/.400/.182 line so far in five spring games -- but if he can, it would be huge for his value. Robles primarily batted ninth in 2020, and he was seventh or eighth for most of 2019, too. If he is in the leadoff spot, that could be worth 100 extra plate appearances over the course of the season, and would likely make Robles a more aggressive base stealer as well -- he has 17 steal attempts in 52 games batting either first or second, compared to 29 in 170 games batting seventh or lower.
If Robles can get back to hitting like he did in 2019, that might be enough to keep him at the top of the lineup, though the Nationals would surely like to see more than a .326 average from him. It feels like Robles has been around forever, but he won't even turn 24 until May 19, so there's room for him to improve his game, too. In a Fantasy economy where steals are valued the way they are these days, Robles' potential is hard to ignore.
3. Gavin Lux -- From No. 219 to 177 overall
I was iffy on Lux's breakout potential last season, but even I expected him to play in more than one-third of the Dodgers' games. For whatever reason, they didn't see the need to force him into the lineup, which was confusing because we thought Lux should have been called up and playing everyday mid-way through the 2019 season. The Dodgers surely know more than we do about Lux's skills and readiness, and the fact that they've been hesitant to push him into the lineup has to make you question how good Lux is.
On the other hand, the Dodgers have the luxury of waiting for players to be ready in a way very few franchises do, and they're talking about him like he's ready now: "Every day he's going to go out there and keep getting better. I do think giving him a runway to play second base, I think is a good thing for him, and a good thing for the Dodgers," manager Dave Roberts said. Lux struggled last spring, and acknowledged his timing was thrown off when the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the season until July, but he's 5 for 11 through his first four games this year.
It's still early, and the Dodgers are more willing to platoon young players, even top prospects, than most other franchises, so Lux could start the season sitting against some lefties. However, if he hits like he did in the minors -- .305/.383/.483, including a massive .343/.428/.586 line in Double-A and Triple-A primarily as a 20- and 21-year-old -- he'll force their hand eventually. Lux is still solidly in MI or bench range in my ranks, but I'm willing to reach on him well ahead of his 255.8 ADP now.
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4. Aaron Hicks -- From No. 296 to 227 overall
Hicks hasn't been as good over the last two seasons as he was between 2017 and 2018, but he was dealing with an elbow injury in 2019 and then recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2020, so you can give him something of a pass. When Hicks is right, he's a good source of power and can steal some bases while sporting a plus on-base percentage, and Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters he thinks Hicks will be the team's primary No. 3 hitter in 2021. That's where 32 of his 49 starts came in 2020, but it didn't lead to huge numbers then -- just 14 RBI in those 32 starts. That helps explain why someone with 25-homer, 15-steal potential is going just 266.8 in ADP right now. Hicks could realistically score 100 runs and drive in 90-plus in this lineup, with batting average being the only category he won't have much upside in.
5. Trey Mancini -- From No. 185 to 140 overall
Mancini missed the entire 2020 season recovering from colon cancer, and though he appeared to have gone through that process without many issues, it was fair to wonder whether he would have a chance to return as an everyday player at the major-league level. However, he was cleared to participate in spring training and games without any restrictions and even got a hit in his first game. He is six months removed from chemotherapy treatments and has told reporters he feels physically close to where he was before 2019. Obviously, we don't know how true that is or how Mancini will hold up to a full season, but we did see Carlos Carrasco pitch well in his return from a cancer diagnosis in 2019, and it's been all good signs for Mancini so far. Baltimore is a great park to hit in, and that lineup has more help than you might think. Mancini hit .291/.364/.535 with 35 homers, 106 runs and 97 RBI in 2019, and if he's feeling like his usual self, that upside is hard to ignore.
















