2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Strategies for the outfield position, complete with sleepers and tiers

The problem with developing a cohesive outfield strategy is that the position is just too big. It's not a box you can check off the moment you get your guy, not when the need isn't fully met yet, and that's especially true in leagues that use standard Rotisserie lineups with five outfield openings.

A larger position makes for a broader talent pool, though, so while staring at all of those openings might compel you to feed the need, there's no reason for urgency, really. Provided you play in a mixed league of reasonable size, there will never come a point in a draft when you say "there are no outfielders left." Maybe if the position was subdivided into left field, center field and right field, it would be different, but increasing the inputs has a tendency to balance the outputs. The sheer number of eligible players in the outfield ensures that it isn't lacking in anything.

That goes for individual skills, too. Whether you need another base-stealer, more home runs or some help in batting average, outfield is equipped to meet that need, in all stages of the draft.

Perhaps, then, it's most advisable not to fill it too soon, instead prioritizing the positions that won't leave you with as many options late. Waiting allows you to tailor your outfield targets to what you still need at that point in the draft.

Of course, I'm not suggesting you never take an outfielder early, not when so many of the best players in Fantasy Baseball reside there.

The four in contention for No. 1 overall

	2021 ADP	2020 PPG	2020 BA	2020 HR
Ronald Acuna ATL CF	1	4.24	.250	14
Mookie Betts LAD RF	2	4.26	.292	16
Mike Trout LAA CF	4	4.11	.281	17
Juan Soto WAS LF	5	4.70	.351	13

You see the ADP column? On average, these are four of the first five players off the board, at least in Rotisserie leagues, and you could make the case for any of them to go No. 1 overall. I'm with the consensus that it should be Ronald Acuna since he's the best stolen base source of the four, but I'd take the other three over him in a Head-to-Head points league.

The other player with a top-five ADP is a shortstop, Fernando Tatis, who statistically rates as a slightly less proven Acuna. One way I might depart from this top five is by grabbing a pitcher, but since these hitters all have the potential to contribute in the all-too-scarce stolen base category, perhaps it's better just to take what you're given. For what it's worth, Trout and Soto are the least likely of the four (or five, if you want to include Tatis) to deliver a considerable steals total.

The Studs

	2021 ADP	2020 PPG	2020 BA	2020 HR
Christian Yelich MIL LF	11	2.79	.205	12
Cody Bellinger LAD CF	14	3.21	.239	12
Bryce Harper PHI RF	19	3.80	.268	13
Kyle Tucker HOU LF	34	3.31	.268	9
Eloy Jimenez CHW LF	37	3.09	.296	14
Luis Robert CHW CF	38	2.72	.233	11
Whit Merrifield KC RF	39	3.29	.282	9
Marcell Ozuna ATL DH	45	4.12	.338	18
George Springer TOR CF	49	3.55	.265	14
Starling Marte MIA CF	50	2.94	.281	6
Aaron Judge NYY RF	52	3.43	.257	9

There are of course studs beyond the top four at a position so deep, and every one in this second group has shown the capacity to deliver numbers at least on the level of a second-rounder. Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger were two who rated alongside Trout and Acuna just a year ago and are certainly talented enough to return to that level of production after sputtering during a wacky season. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper looks like he's back on an MVP track after cutting way down on his strikeouts. The numbers he put up in 2020 were terrific in their own right, but even so, he was one of the players who most underperformed his expected stats, according to Statcast.

Position Strategy: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

Generally, I'm too focused on starting pitcher in Rounds 3-5 to make a play for any of the others here, but Kyle Tucker looks like an emerging power-speed source and Eloy Jimenez like sort of a Nolan Arenado of the outfield. Of course, Aaron Judge comes with the usual injury concerns and has the lowest ADP of this group as a result, but the ones I'd be most reluctant to draft are actually Luis Robert and Starling Marte.

Neither would rank with this group in a points league. Both are elevated for categories leagues because of their steals potential, which is fine. If you want steals, you have to pay for them -- that's just the way it is. But in Robert's case, there needs to be a legitimate step forward to justify the ADP. He hit .136 with a .409 OPS in September and struck out 32.2 percent of the time for the season, both of which are cause for concern. Of course, I acknowledge he has the potential to make a Fernando Tatis-like leap in his second season, emerging as a top-five pick himself, but the downside also needs to be addressed.

Other Deserving Starters

	2021 ADP	2020 PPG	2020 BA	2020 HR
Cavan Biggio TOR 2B	57	3.21	.250	8
Trent Grisham SD CF	62	3.17	.251	10
Randy Arozarena TB LF	63	3.26	.281	7
Brandon Lowe TB 2B	68	3.32	.269	14
Michael Conforto NYM RF	71	3.34	.322	9
Teoscar Hernandez TOR RF	72	3.43	.289	16
Charlie Blackmon COL RF	75	2.95	.303	6
Nick Castellanos CIN RF	86	2.73	.225	14
Lourdes Gurriel TOR LF	90	2.93	.308	11
Austin Meadows TB LF	93	2.14	.204	4
Jeff McNeil NYM 2B	101	2.58	.311	4
Dominic Smith NYM 1B	106	3.49	.316	10
Mike Yastrzemski SF RF	115	3.55	.297	10
Eddie Rosario MIN LF	123	3.16	.257	13
Wil Myers SD RF	132	3.44	.288	15
Michael Brantley HOU DH	147	2.91	.300	5
Joey Gallo TEX RF	152	2.10	.181	10
Max Kepler MIN RF	187	2.85	.228	9

It's not at all uncommon for my first outfielder to come from this group, particularly if I'm not in a spot to grab one of the Big Four in Round 1, and it's not at all uncommon for that first outfielder to be Nick Castellanos. Yup, I'm doubling down on him as a breakout pick despite an uneven first season with the Reds. While he had a curiously high strikeout rate and some horrendous BABIP luck, the power production skyrocketed as hoped in his new home environment. If he puts it all together, he's a stud.

There are so many interesting cases here, from October standout Randy Arozarena, who hit .333 with 17 homers if you combine his regular and postseason stats, to unexpected breakout Teoscar Hernandez, who emerged from his fourth-outfielder pigeonhole with some top-of-the-scale exit velocity, to COVID decliner Austin Meadows, who maybe deserves a pass because of his bout with the illness. I'm finding it difficult to pull the trigger on any of the three -- on Arozarena and Hernandez because of the price tag and on Meadows because of the Rays' unpredictable lineup choices -- but I see the appeal for each.

I gravitate more toward frugal choices like Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski and Eddie Rosario. Or even Max Kepler -- what's going on with his ADP? Is everyone forgetting he hit 36 homers two years ago?

The DH-onlys

	2021 ADP	2020 PPG	2020 BA	2020 HR
Nelson Cruz MIN DH	81	3.32	.303	16
Yordan Alvarez HOU DH	84	4.00^	.313^	27^
J.D. Martinez BOS DH	88	2.36	.213	7
Giancarlo Stanton NYY DH	109	2.85	.250	4
Franmil Reyes CLE DH	140	2.48	.275	9
Jorge Soler KC DH	144	2.30	.228	8
Shohei Ohtani LAA DH	195	2.46	.190	7
Willie Calhoun TEX DH	349	1.36	.190	1
Khris Davis OAK DH	489	1.57	.200	2

^2019, majors

One of the oddities of 2020 is that few of the hitters who played primarily DH had a chance to pick up eligibility at some other position. The position where they most likely would have gotten that chance -- and perhaps still will shortly into 2021 -- is the outfield, so I've represented them here.

Frankly, I wouldn't dream of overlooking them because the value for the top three especially is just too great. Nelson Cruz, Yordan Alvarez and J.D. Martinez all performed like second-rounders as recently as 2019, and two of them were drafted that high just last year. The one who wasn't, Cruz, is perennially underrated because he's ancient but still shows no signs of slowing down. Alvarez is coming off a lost season in which he had work done on both knees, but he's still only 23 and can seemingly do no wrong at the plate. Martinez was one of the first to point out that the limited video access because of the pandemic would disrupt his routines, and it seems like a viable explanation for his struggles.

I'll be thrilled to take whichever of those three lasts the longest. In fact, it's one of my top priorities going into every draft. It's not the worst thing in the world if I have to settle for Giancarlo Stanton either. He remains the preeminent power hitter in the game today and is bound to stay healthy one of these years. Even for Jorge Soler and Franmil Reyes, the price tag looks too good to be true. Let's not forget that in 2019, they hit 48 and 37 homers, respectively.

I guess they all slide because nobody has use for more than one, but the point is that you should absolutely devote your utility spot to one, whichever presents the most value.

The Sleepers

	2021 ADP	2020 PPG	2020 BA	2020 OPS
Byron Buxton MIN CF	118	2.80	.254	.844
Kyle Lewis SEA CF	119	2.80	.262	.801
Alex Verdugo BOS CF	126	2.86	.308	.844
Tommy Pham SD LF	131	2.37	.211	.624
Dylan Moore SEA SS	134	3.43	.256	.855
Ramon Laureano OAK CF	146	2.39	.213	.704
Ryan Mountcastle BAL LF	151	2.66	.333	.878
Anthony Santander BAL RF	156	3.85	.261	.890
Dylan Carlson STL CF	159	1.67	.200	.616
Ian Happ CHC CF	160	2.71	.258	.866
A.J. Pollock LAD LF	177	3.03	.276	.881
Clint Frazier NYY RF	179	3.31	.267	.905
Trey Mancini BAL RF	186	3.42^	.291^	.899^
Jesse Winker CIN DH	212	2.65	.255	.932
Mark Canha OAK DH	246	2.90	.246	.795

^2019, majors

You see what I mean about the outfield having no shortage of quality options? I don't even know where to begin with this group. I guess I'll point out that a number of viable base-stealers remain -- and with the potential to contribute in other categories as well. There's a reason Byron Buxton, Kyle Lewis, Tommy Pham, Dylan Moore, Ramon Laureano and Dylan Carlson last this long -- they're not exactly proven or reliable -- but having them to fall back on if you still need help in that category is a luxury not found at most other positions.

My personal favorites from this group are Trey Mancini, who seems to have made a full recovery from colon cancer and is well worth the gamble after the numbers he put up in 2019, and Clint Frazier, who doesn't seem to be getting enough credit for his long-awaited breakout in 2020. Mark Canha's on-base skills still give him a leg up in points leagues, but the power he showed in 2019 didn't carry over to last year.

And the sleepers don't end there. Outfield has so many to offer that I had to split them into two tables:

The Deep Sleepers

	2021 ADP	2020 PPG	2020 BA	2020 OPS
Tommy Edman STL 3B	142	2.31	.250	.685
Victor Robles WAS CF	175	1.66	.220	.608
Daulton Varsho ARI CF	182	1.74	.188	.653
Nick Solak TEX LF	185	2.31	.268	.671
Andrew McCutchen PHI LF	200	2.93	.254	.757
Jarred Kelenic SEA CF	216	-----	.291*	.904*
Andrew Benintendi BOS LF	227	0.96	.103	.442
Brandon Nimmo NYM CF	245	2.88	.280	.888
Aaron Hicks NYY CF	254	2.76	.225	.793
Garrett Hampson COL 2B	255	1.77	.234	.671
Nick Senzel CIN CF	260	1.85	.186	.604
Lorenzo Cain MIL CF	266	2.45^	.260^	.697^
Jo Adell LAA RF	274	0.75	.161	.478
Alex Kirilloff MIN RF	276	-----	.283*	.756*
Mitch Haniger SEA RF	287	3.09^	.220^	.778^
David Dahl TEX CF	299	1.42	.183	.470
Cristian Pache ATL LF	306	0.00	.277*	.802*
Yasiel Puig CLE RF	329	2.89^	.267^	.785^
Bryan Reynolds PIT LF	338	1.88	.189	.632
Sam Hilliard COL LF	441	1.75	.209	.710

*2019, minors
^2019, majors

This group has upside, clearly, but at least in three-outfielder leagues, you'll have your starting lineup filled out by the time you dip into them. The five-outfielder leagues are more often Rotisserie scoring, which is where base-stealers like Tommy Edman, Victor Robles and Garrett Hampson have the most value.

These players fit into a wide variety of subcategories, from reclamation projects like Mitch Haniger and David Dahl to post-hype sleepers like Nick Senzel and Sam Hilliard to bounce-back candidates like Andrew Benintendi and Bryan Reynolds to draft-and-stash prospects like Jarred Kelenic and Jo Adell. The player I most want to highlight, though, is Alex Kirilloff, who got a chance to start the Twins' lone postseason game last year after reportedly dominating at the alternate training site. They like him so much that they cut Eddie Rosario loose this offseason to make sure they had an opening for him. Kirilloff's most recent minor-league numbers are misleading because he was playing through a wrist injury in 2019, but the .348 batting average and .970 OPS he delivered in 2018 point to a high ceiling he has offensively.

The Base-Stealers

Here, I'd normally feature all of the viable stolen base sources at the position, but for outfield, there's just too many. The table would stretch so far down the page that you'd get tired of looking at it, which is a losing situation for everyone. So I'll consolidate by quickly listing off the stolen base sources already covered in earlier sections of this piece, denoting how many stolen bases each had in 2020:

*Studs*		*Starters*		*Sleepers*
Ronald Acuna	8	Cavan Biggio	6	Byron Buxton	2
Mookie Betts	10	Trent Grisham	10	Kyle Lewis	5
Mike Trout	1	Randy Arozarena	4	Tommy Pham	6
Juan Soto	6	Teoscar Hernandez	6	Dylan Moore	12
Christian Yelich	4	Wil Myers	2	Tommy Edman	2
Cody Bellinger	6			Ramon Laureano	2
Bryce Harper	8			Dylan Carlson	20*
Kyle Tucker	8			Victor Robles	4
Luis Robert	9			Nick Solak	7
Whit Merrifield	12			Jarred Kelenic	20*
Starling Marte	10			Garrett Hampson	6
				Nick Senzel	2
				Lorenzo Cain	18^
				Jo Adell	7*
				Yasiel Puig	19^

*2019, minors
^2019, majors

Wil Myers, Byron Buxton, Tommy Edman and Victor Robles were all off their usual steals pace last year, which is understandable since steals generally aren't so evenly distributed over the course of a 162-game season. You shouldn't let their modest totals over a 60-game season discourage you.

OK, so who haven't I covered yet?

Other Stolen Base Specialists

	2021 ADP	2020 SB	2021 hope	Also eligible
Victor Reyes DET CF	208	8	15-20	----
Leody Taveras TEX CF	236	8	25-30	----
Jurickson Profar SD LF	247	7	10-15	2B
Jon Berti MIA 2B	249	9	25-30	2B
Manuel Margot BOS OF	261	12	25-30	-----
Jackie Bradley BOS CF	298	5	10-15	-----
Raimel Tapia COL LF	330	8	20-25	-----
Adam Eaton CHW RF	366	3	10-15	-----
Robbie Grossman DET LF	379	8	15-20	-----
Myles Straw HOU CF	401	6	25-30	-----
Austin Slater SF DH	428	8	15-20	-----
Kevin Pillar COL CF	431	5	10-15	-----
Shogo Akiyama CIN LF	453	7	15-20	-----
Gregory Polanco PIT RF	466	3	10-15	-----
Kevin Kiermaier TB CF	496	8	15-20	-----
Roman Quinn PHI CF	508	12	20-25	-----
Magneuris Sierra MIA CF	661	4	20-25	----

We're kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point, but with steals sources in such short supply in Rotisserie leagues, it's possible you'll need to make a play for one of these guys late in drafts. My favorite is probably Raimel Tapia, who could bat at the top of the Rockies lineup and has a pretty good hit tool as well.

Victor Reyes figures to play every day for the Tigers and isn't a total zero in the other categories. Jon Berti has a chance to be eligible all over the diamond and has proven twice over that he likes to run. Leody Taveras is only just getting started, and we still don't know the extent of his potential offensively. Myles Straw, meanwhile, had a 70-steal season in the minors and has a knack for getting on base. As the Astros roster currently stands, he's in line for more playing time than ever.

Other Home Run Specialists

	2021 ADP	2020 PPG	2020 BA	2020 HR
Randal Grichuk TOR CF	190	3.03	.273	12
Kyle Schwarber WAS LF	204	2.22	.189	11
Kole Calhoun ARI RF	232	3.43	.226	16
Justin Upton LAA LF	296	2.35	.204	9
Alex Dickerson SF LF	300	2.79	.298	10
Adam Duvall ATL LF	310	2.79	.237	16
Joc Pederson LAD LF	365	2.00	.190	7
Hunter Renfroe BOS RF	472	2.13	.156	8

By the end of last season, Randal Grichuk, Kole Calhoun and Adam Duvall were more or less must-start in five-outfielder Rotisserie leagues, but they all have shaky track records and, at least in the case of Grichuk and Duvall, playing-time concerns. Kyle Schwarber, Joc Pederson and Hunter Renfroe have better track records, but they all crashed pretty hard last year. None is a bad choice if you're looking to make up ground in the most plentiful category late in drafts, but there are clear limits to each players' ceiling.

So which 2021 Fantasy baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Will Smith's huge breakout last season, and find out.