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Ranking players for dynasty leagues is ... complicated. Prospects need to factor in somehow, but how exactly depends on your league's keeper rules and your team's contention window.

In recent years, I've tried to simplify the process by using a rudimentary rating system. Specifically, I assign each player a score (1 being the lowest, 5 the highest) across three factors:

  1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2022
  2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
  3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his present and future value

Then I add up each player's score, adjust for age and preference, and voila, rankings.  

It's imperfect -- and, yeah, to some degree the "confidence" rating is just a way of tweaking the scores to my liking -- but there is no perfect. This way at least makes it more fun to argue.

Top 150 for dynasty leagues
RankPlayerAge (on 7/1)PresentFutureConfidence
1
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Fernando Tatis SD SS
235 5 5
2 23 5 5 5
3 23 5 5 5
4 244 5 5
5 24 5 54
6 25 5 54
7 29 5 3 5
8 29 5 3 5
9 27 5 5 3
10 21454
11
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Luis Robert CHW CF
24 5 53
12 27 5 4 4
13 254 5 4
14 25445
15 29534
16 30 5 34
17 31 5 34
18 29 5 34
19 27543
20 29534
21 27543
22 2125 5
23 2235 4
24 254 5 3
25 25 4 44
26 29435
27 28 4 44
28 29435
29 26 4 5 3
30 32525
31 27 4 44
32 27 4 4 4
33 25 4 43
34
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Eloy Jimenez CHW LF
2544 3
35 242 5 4
36 222 5 4
37 2754 2
38 28 4 4 3
39 29 4 34
40 284 5 2
41 28434
42
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Brandon Lowe TB 2B
27 4 43
43 27443
44 2844 3
45
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Freddy Peralta MIL SP
26452
46
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Jack Flaherty STL SP
26442
47 32523
48 22352
49 21253
50 28433
51 3043 3
52 25442
53 21253
54 24352
55 20154
56 20154
57 21154
58 25352
59
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Shane Baz TB SP
23352
60 22253
61 3252 3
62 32433
63 32 4 2 4
64 3143 3
65 284 4 2
66 27442
67 274 4 2
68 29433
69 2844 2
70 29433
71 2125 3
72 242 4 4
73 2224 4
74
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Jacob deGrom NYM SP
34 5 22
75
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Max Scherzer NYM SP
37513
76 3043 2
77 26351
78 31522
79 33414
80 33414
81 2943 2
82 3143 2
83 2943 2
84 29432
85
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Tyler O'Neill STL LF
27 4 41
86 29432
87 31423
88 28 4 3 2
89
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Adalberto Mondesi KC 3B
26 3 51
90
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Jonathan India CIN 2B
25342
91 30432
92 29432
93 28441
94 2734 2
95
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Willy Adames MIL SS
263 4 2
96 2634 2
97 25342
98 26351
99 20153
100 23252
101 22153
102 24342
103 25342
104 24342
105 23 3 51
106 25342
107 22243
108 20153
109
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Tyler Glasnow TB SP
28144
110 28342
111 262 5 2
112
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Kris Bryant SF 3B
30 3 33
113 28 3 33
114 28333
115
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Chris Sale BOS SP
33413
116 23143
117 20143
118 22242
119 20152
120 24152
121 22152
122 28 3 41
123 29341
124 29 3 3 2
125 29 3 3 2
126 38413
127
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Lance Lynn CHW SP
35413
128 35413
129 3441 3
130 39512
131
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Giancarlo Stanton NYY DH
32323
132
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Mitch Haniger SEA RF
31323
133 24341
134 243 4 1
135 29431
136 30341
137 2833 2
138
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Max Muncy LAD 1B
31431
139 24341
140
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Austin Meadows TB LF
27332
141 26 3 41
142
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Lance McCullers HOU SP
28341
143
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Mike Clevinger SD SP
31332
144 29341
145 28332
146 27332
147
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Franmil Reyes CLE DH
26332
148 28341
149 26341
150
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Dustin May LAD SP
24143