Spring Training is in full swing and things are happening! We've had big injuries, impressive performances, and Fantasy Baseball drafts taking place. All three of those will continue to shape our opinion for the upcoming season. Hopefully, I'm not overreacting to spring games but we're learning new and valuable information. Pitchers are working on new pitches, we have velocity readings and we get to find out who's in the best shape of their life!
- Sleepers 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
We're also doing a ton of drafts. It's a huge help for me this time of year as I actually get to put my rankings to the test. I also get to learn more about roster construction, scarcities, and my own personal tendencies. As you'll see with my first sleeper, I've learned that late-round power is hard to find. I also really like getting four of my top-40 starting pitchers, waiting, and then loading up on upside arms later on in the draft. Without further ado, here are five more sleepers I like this season. For this exercise, I used NFBC ADP for drafts only done in March up to this point.
Get the Fantasy Baseball Today 2025 Draft Guide Here!
Jorge Soler, OF, Angels
Let's start with an oldie but a goodie. I've long been a fan of Jorge Soler and his light-tower power. That's especially true entering 2025 when it seems harder to find power later on in drafts. Soler got off to a slow start last season, perhaps due to playing in San Francisco, a pretty rough-hitting environment. In 49 games at Oracle Park last season, Soler hit just four home runs with a .421 slugging percentage. It's no surprise but he took off after getting traded back to the Braves midseason. In 49 games post-trade, Soler hit nine home runs with a .493 slugging percentage and an .849 OPS. What helps Soler's chances of succeeding is that he was traded to the Angels this offseason.
That might sound confusing because the Angels aren't a very good team. Angel Stadium, however, is a good ballpark for a power hitter. According to Statcast, Angel Stadium ranks seventh in home run park factor over the past three years. Oracle Park ranks dead last during that span. Soler still hit the ball hard last season and displayed strong plate discipline, too. He posted a 90.5 MPH average exit velocity with a 12.3% barrel rate. He also walked in 12% of his plate appearances and posted a .338 on-base percentage. Soler is just two years removed from hitting 36 home runs with the Marlins. When he's looked in, he can mash with the best of 'em. I don't think Soler will get all the way back to that level but I could see him swatting 30 homers this upcoming season, which is a big help outside the top-200 picks. I'll leave you with one of the most aesthetically pleasing home runs so far this spring.
This Jorge Soler blast reached the trees beyond the left field fence 🤯 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/TQLAahe5nl
— MLB (@MLB) February 24, 2025
Gavin Williams, SP, Guardians
Gavin Williams is coming off a weird season that was highlighted by right elbow inflammation he dealt with during spring training last year. As a result, he didn't make his season debut until the end of June. Once back, Williams didn't look right. His whiffs were down, he gave up more hard contact and didn't throw his signature slider as much. Perhaps he used the slider less since it puts so much torque on the elbow. Well, he had all offseason to rest up and appears to be back on track. I encourage everybody not to overreact to spring training, but it's hard to ignore what Williams has done thus far.
Gavin Williams struck out 7 in 3.2 IP as his strong Spring continues
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 9, 2025
His revamped slider looked good, but it was his fastball that did most of the damage. He registered an absurd 53.6 Whiff% overall today pic.twitter.com/vEJsj5Cezf
As of writing this, Williams has made three spring starts. He's allowed just one earned run over eight innings of work with 16 strikeouts to just two walks. His fastball has been utterly ridiculous. On Sunday Williams registered 16 swing-and-misses with 11 of those coming on his fastball. Williams is still just 25 years old and comes with a lot of prospect pedigree. He was a first-round pick in 2021 and was rated as a consensus top-50 overall prospect entering 2023. Back in 2023, Williams displayed his upside at the major league level. He posted two double-digit strikeout efforts in a six-day span. That's the player I thought we were getting last season but it appears the elbow injury robbed us of that upside. With Williams healthy and dominating again this spring, he's a name you should draft later in drafts with confidence.
Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals
If you've followed my work the past couple of years, this name won't surprise you. Everybody has their guys. Lars Nootbaar is one of my guys. I just can't quit. I am convinced Nootbaar is legitimately a good hitter. He just hasn't been able to show us his final form due to injuries. Nootbaar has yet to play more than 117 games in a season for various reasons. The first part of Nootbaar's game that stands out is his plate discipline. He rarely chases pitches out of the zone, rarely whiffs, and makes a ton of in-zone contact. Nootbaar has a career 13.6% walk rate, which has led to a .348 on-base percentage and a 116 wRC+.
Next up, Nootbaar hits the ball hard. His 49.5% hard-hit rate ranked in the 91st percentile last season. The next step in Nootbaar's progression is to raise the launch angle. One issue is that he hits too many ground balls. He posted a 52% ground ball rate last season, which makes it hard to turn that hard contact into home runs. Back in 2021 and 2022, Nootbaar did hit fewer ground balls so we know he has that ability. Lastly, Nootbaar has been incredibly consistent against both-handed pitching in his career, posting a .751 OPS against lefties and a .781 mark against righties. What that tells me is that he should be an everyday player, assuming he's healthy. If we can finally get 140-plus games from Nootbaar, I think he can provide 20-25 homers with 10-15 steals and a .350ish on-base percentage. That's a player that could work in both Roto and H2H points leagues.
Max Scherzer, SP, Blue Jays
Here's another oldie but a goodie. At 40 years old, how much does Max Scherzer have left? I think he has quite a bit. Last year he posted a 3.95 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. Those numbers are just okay but let's dig deeper. Scherzer still had a 14.6% swinging strike rate, an elite mark. To put that in perspective, that was the same as Tarik Skubal, the American League Cy Young award winner. While Scherzer has lost some velocity, his secondary pitches still appear to be elite. Both his curveball and slider each had 40% whiff rates. Whiffs are not the problem. Health is.
Scherzer was limited to just nine starts last season and it's fair to wonder if his body can still hold up. Last offseason he had surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back. He didn't return until late June but went on the IL two more times with right shoulder fatigue and a strained left hamstring. I can't predict injuries but I'm fairly certain Scherzer is an elevated health risk given his age and injury history. The good news is that's already baked into his draft cost, with the ADP outside of the top-250 picks. Lastly, Scherzer's looked awfully good during spring training (see below). I know we've been duped by spring training and small samples before but he's allowed just two earned runs over nine innings with 14 strikeouts to zero walks. I think he's still got it and will perform well on a per-game basis. The biggest question remains, how many starts will Scherzer actually make this year?
Max Scherzer racks up six strikeouts in a scoreless outing 😤 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/ujIyMFMNKF
— MLB (@MLB) March 8, 2025
Max Meyer, SP, Marlins
Max Meyer is a former top prospect who's certainly had his ups and downs. He's a former first-round pick and consensus top-50 overall prospect. Meyer had Tommy John surgery back in 2022 and is still looking to regain his form. Well, so far he's done exactly that during spring training. Meyer's velocity has been up this spring and he's added some new pitches. He made his most recent start this weekend and averaged 95.8 MPH on his fastball. The velocity on all of his pitches was up between 1.2 and 1.7 MPH on all of his pitches compared to last season. It sounds like something he consciously worked on this offseason, too.
Max Meyer on the velo uptick;
— Peter Pratt 🍷 (@MiamiMarlins_UK) February 26, 2025
‘Had a big offseason in the weight room’ pic.twitter.com/37KSE00TfA
Meyer added a sinker and sweeper this offseason, too. He threw nine sweepers in Saturday's start, and the results were pretty good. Meyer generated one whiff on the sweeper with a 33% CSW rate on the pitch. I'm not sure how much he'll use all of his pitches, but as of now, Meyer has a five-pitch mix entering the season. Last year, he leaned on just three pitches, and the slider was the only good one. Meyer does need to improve his fastball, as it got clobbered last season. Hopefully, the increased velocity will help the fastball play better this upcoming season. Wins will be hard to come by for all Marlins pitchers, but I think there's a decent chance Meyer provides solid ratios and strikeouts this upcoming season.
