Haven't we learned by now?
Haven't we learned that no matter how good Justin Verlander is for some limited stretch of time, he's not back, never will be back, and to cling to that hope despite mounting evidence to the contrary is the definition of lunacy?
Apparently not.
But hear me out! This time, that stretch lasted a full 14 starts, and during it, Verlander compiled a 2.27 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
It wasn't just some lights-out postseason performance like the one that had us believing again in 2013. It wasn't even those eight starts at the beginning of 2014, when a 2.67 ERA was offset by an unusually low strikeout rate. Verlander didn't succeed with smoke and mirrors; he dominated for what amounts to half a season. Any pitcher who ends a season with those numbers over that length of time enters the next as a sleeper.
And Verlander, of course, isn't just any pitcher. He's one who had four top-five Cy Young finishes in a six-year span, who became just the second since the 1980s to win a league MVP award and who used to fill Clayton Kershaw's role as the one and only selected in the first round of Fantasy drafts.
He's a sleeper with a track record, which would normally be mutually exclusive, but based on the way his last few seasons have gone, he has to regain our trust again.
So let's look back and see if we can get to the bottom of the question that has nagged me since Verlander first met his demise: What went wrong?
Normally for a longtime ace who suddenly "loses it," it's pretty cut-and-dried: The accumulation of innings compromised his command, reduced his stuff or both, with Tim Lincecum being a prime example. But Verlander's walk rate has held steady over the years, and while his average fastball velocity has dropped some, it's not to an alarming degree for a pitcher entering the latter half of his career. He still peaks at 99 mph, and according to FanGraphs.com, his average fastball velocity would have ranked among the top 25 starting pitchers if he had the innings to qualify.
... If what, now?
Oh, that's right. All that talk about Verlander's excellent half-season conveniently overlooked the fact that, for him, it was more than that. His 2015 didn't begin until June 13 because his body -- specifically, his triceps -- didn't allow him to begin it before then. And it wasn't exactly an isolated incident.
You remember the narrative surrounding Verlander at this time a year ago? He was at last a full year removed from core muscle surgery -- the same procedure that wrecked Denard Span's 2015 after he tried to come back from it too early. Verlander tried to do the same in 2014, and though he lasted from start to finish, he clearly wasn't right.
"I couldn't generate the power I needed from my hips and lower body," he told the Detroit Free Press last spring. "I was a twisted mess."
That explanation was enough for me to declare him a sleeper and buy into the bounce-back for a second straight year. But then his triceps flared up, and well, that was that.
Except it wasn't, because once he overcame the triceps strain, the narrative was validated by his 2.27 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 14 starts. Sure, he had those six starts where he wasn't so great, but he had, after all, just missed 2 1/2 months with a strained triceps. Healthy pitchers get more slack than that for a bad April.
Factoring in all the variables, doesn't it seem likely that Verlander is simply a victim of bad timing, that his struggles in 2013 really were corrected with that incredible postseason run but nobody knew it because he was injured thereafter?
If it sounds all too convenient (and all too familiar) to you, here's the kicker: You can actually draft him later now than you could coming off that mess of a 2014 season, which was by far the worst of this three-year skid. With the depth at the top at starting pitcher, I see no reason to rank him higher than a No. 3 option in mixed leagues, and even there I'm among the highest in the industry.
According to FantasyPros.com, Verlander is going in the 13th round on average, ahead of Jake Odorizzi and Shelby Miller. Just taking last year's numbers at face value -- the 20 starts, not the 14 -- he's better than that.
