Good news, everyone! Turns out the stifling offensive environment we saw in April and even the first couple weeks of May was exaggerated, an unfortunate byproduct of waterlogged baseballs meeting wintery weather.
Now I'm the one exaggerating, but that's the gist of it.
Don't get me wrong. Offense is down, particularly with regard to home runs. But it isn't down to such a comical degree that the game is no longer recognizable. The turning point -- i.e., when playing conditions went from generally unfavorable to generally favorable -- was about May 15, in my estimation, and you can see the effect it's had on hitters league-wide:
| | BA | BABIP | HR/FB | K% |
Through May 15 | .234 | .282 | 10.4% | 22.6 |
After May 15 | .250 | .295 | 12.0% | 21.7 |
Some increase was to be expected in each of these categories. It fits the historic pattern of offense improving as the weather warms up. The extent of the increase is notable, though, particularly with regard to home run-to-fly ball rate. The change there lends credence to the idea that humidified baseballs will actually carry more as humidity increases. Is the ball deader? Yes, it's manufactured to be that way. But if the theory shared by myself and others is correct, then the introduction of a humidor to all 30 parks also makes it more responsive to the elements, for better or worse.
Right now, it's for the better, at least as far as hitters are concerned, and it should remain so over the rest of the season, potentially with even more room for improvement.
What I'm saying is you can throw out any numbers a hitter put up prior to May 16, or at least interpret them with great skepticism. They were compiled in an unfair environment that no hitter will be subjected to anymore (at least not until *gulp* next year). Some hitters thrived regardless, and more power to them, but it's fair to say that whatever was happening through mid-May went beyond the typical ups and downs of a typical baseball season. Any hitter who we feared was "ruined," then, by the new environment may still be salvaged, particularly if he's already showing signs of a turnaround.
I'd like to highlight a few of those hitters, ones whose production has been markedly better since May 15 but whose overall production may still be lagging because of a dreadful start. You could think of them as buy-low candidates, at least in some cases, though that's less the objective here than simply to inform you that things are looking up. And surely, even more underachievers will begin achieving soon.
| pre BA | pre OPS | post BA | post OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Abreu
CHW 1B
| .197 | .584 | .364 | 1.111 |
Randy Arozarena
TB LF
| .227 | .612 | .329 | .977 |
Bo Bichette
TOR SS
| .234 | .619 | .284 | .926 |
Matt Chapman
TOR 3B
| .182 | .606 | .295 | .845 |
Garrett Cooper
MIA 1B
| .255 | .727 | .381 | 1.018 |
Nelson Cruz
WAS DH
| .194 | .577 | .365 | .937 |
Eduardo Escobar
NYM 3B
| .202 | .626 | .298 | .866 |
Kyle Farmer
CIN SS
| .193 | .552 | .438 | 1.241 |
Mitch Garver
TEX DH
| .205 | .638 | .241 | .837 |
Ian Happ
CHC LF
| .260 | .745 | .282 | .920 |
Alejandro Kirk
TOR C
| .255 | .646 | .400 | 1.240 |
Brendan Rodgers
COL 2B
| .216 | .600 | .329 | .925 |
Frank Schwindel
CHC 1B
| .218 | .561 | .267 | .876 |
Trey Mancini
BAL DH
| .289 | .745 | .329 | .921 |
Ketel Marte
ARI 2B
| .210 | .664 | .349 | .894 |
Whit Merrifield
KC RF
| .191 | .479 | .264 | .707 |
Marcell Ozuna
ATL LF
| .206 | .605 | .280 | .823 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT CF
| .209 | .667 | .239 | .772 |
Julio Rodriguez
SEA CF
| .264 | .696 | .296 | .868 |
Marcus Semien
TEX 2B
| .157 | .428 | .256 | .733 |
Jorge Soler
MIA LF
| .188 | .673 | .276 | .942 |
Trevor Story
BOS 2B
| .196 | .561 | .267 | 1.038 |
Dansby Swanson
ATL SS
| .229 | .710 | .342 | .865 |
Jared Walsh
LAA 1B
| .240 | .714 | .281 | .880 |
Bobby Witt
KC 3B
| .217 | .629 | .224 | .786 |
Joey Votto
CIN 1B
| .122 | .413 | .283 | 1.086 |
Mike Yastrzemski
SF RF
| .259 | .728 | .303 | .990 |
