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Wednesday's standout pitching performance was no doubt Ervin Santana's two-hit shutout against the Athletics. He upped his trade value with his fourth straight start allowing two earned runs or fewer and struck out eight in the process.
But we know the story with him by now. He runs hot and cold, making stretches like these little more than a tease. Only three times in his 12-year career (2008, 2011 and 2013) has he been able to sustain it for the better part of a season.
Just look at the breakdown this season. Over his first seven starts, he had a 3.13 ERA. Over his next five, a 7.71 ERA. And over his last four, a 1.63 ERA. Last year, he had a 6.05 ERA over his first 10 starts but then a 1.62 ERA over his final seven. It's his MO.
But one thing he does consistently bring to the table is innings, and on a contender, those will more often translate to wins. And rightful or not, wins are the greatest determinant of a pitcher's Fantasy output.
So in the right scenario, you might be willing to wait out those cold stretches, especially since nobody outside of my top 45 or so at the position has been anything close to reliable this year. Given the likelihood he's traded, Santana might be worth a speculative pickup if you're really hurting for pitching.
1. New high for Tulo
Avert your eyes from Wednesday's performance. Troy Tulowitzki struck out four times on a day when Royals pitcher Ian Kennedy was clearly "on." (We know the story with him by now, too.)
Looking at the bigger picture, Tulowitzki has been a different player since returning from a strained quadriceps June 18 -- and yet still a familiar one:
I believe the words you're looking for are "he's back, baby!"
That's the most plausible explanation, isn't it, for a player who suddenly went askew last year? We've tried blaming age, but usually transcendent talents like Tulowitzki don't fade in their early 30s. So leaving Coors Field must have been the problem, huh? Well, he wasn't right even before joining the Blue Jays last year, putting together a suspect .818 OPS in 87 games for the Rockies, which itself would have been his worst in seven years.
His troubles were most evidenced by his strikeout rate, which is partly why this turnaround feels legitimate. Even with Wednesday's poor showing, his 12 strikeouts to seven walks in 16 games is much more in line with his career norms.
"I really think that I went down to Florida, it gave me a chance to work on my swing, get back to some good things that I did," he told Sportsnet. "I'm really just trying to be myself. I think this is really who I am."
Maybe it's as simple as that -- he once was lost, but now he's found. I really don't see the downside to buying in, provided you don't lose sight of the fact that Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Ian Desmond are the cream of the crop at the position now. Tulowitzki's overall numbers are such that he should still be pretty affordable on the trade market, and if you already own him, you're only back where you started if he backslides.
His chances of performing like a stud the rest of the way are probably greater than what you could get for him right now.
2. Shortstopalooza
And if Tulowitzki backslides, it's not like you have a shortage of fallback options at the position. In fact, he's one of the few players capable of setting you apart.
That's because no owner, at least in a standard-size league, is falling behind at the position, not with access to the deepest crop of mixed league-caliber shortstops since as long as I can remember.
Jean Segura has his batting average up to .317 because of a 34-for-88 (.386) stretch, and he's still kind of a yawner to me given what else I'm seeing at the position.
Marcus Semien didn't homer Wednesday, which is a rarity for him these days. With six home runs in his last 14 games, he's now on a 34-homer pace, and yet he's only 65 percent owned.
And here's the crazy part: We may not have even seen his best yet. His BABIP is only .264 after settling at about .310 the previous two years, so he doesn't necessarily have to maintain this home run pace to remain the 15th-best shortstop in Head-to-Head points leagues.
Wait, did I say 15th-best? Well, no wonder he's only 65 percent owned. I mean, leagues that have an extra middle infield spot to fill are one thing, but who starts two shortstops otherwise? Just how big is your league?
Big enough that you can't find a spot for Zack Cozart, probably, even though his recent 10-for-23 (.435) stretch, which includes a home run in each of his last three games, brings his season line to this:
That's right: He's on pace to hit 26 home runs while striking out just 83 times -- an especially rare skill set in today's game that should make him invaluable in Head-to-Head points leagues. But whoops, he's only 12th at what's presumed to be the weakest position in Fantasy.
But the cream will rise to the top, right? Some of those players ahead of Semien and Cozart, like maybe Segura, are sure to regress, and we've already seen it from players like Trevor Story and Aledmys Diaz.
OK, maybe not Diaz. His 3-for-5 performance Wednesday, which included a home run, has him batting .415 (17 for 41) with four home runs in his last 11 games. His numbers are like Cozart's on steroids:
That kind of production from a shortstop would be MVP-caliber some years, but this year, he's like an also-ran at the position. Seriously, he's on my bench in two Head-to-Head leagues, and it's not like I'm running away with either.
If, as a Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Liriano, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa or Ian Desmond owner, you see one of these shortstops sitting on the waiver wire (more likely Semien or Cozart), it's your golden opportunity to market your stud shortstop for a stud at some other, presumed-to-be-deeper position.
Of those six, Desmond probably has the most regression coming.
3. Solarte par-tay
And shortstop isn't the only position abounding in depth. The truth is no one in a standard mixed league should be hurting anywhere on the infield, which is how a player like Yangervis Solarte can slip through the cracks. He's triple-eligible, batting .308 with a .909 OPS and yet owned in only 43 percent of CBSSports.com leagues.
Oh, and he also happens to be scalding hot:
I've always liked the guy for his high contact rate. It has direct value in points leagues, of course, and it gives him a high ceiling in batting average. And here at age 29, he's also packing in the power. His seven home runs in 156 at-bats are just a continuation of the seven he hit in his final 156 at-bats last year (not a typo!), so we can only imagine what his numbers would look like if he hadn't missed six weeks this year with a strained hamstring.
In terms of Head-to-Head points per game, he currently rates better than Eric Hosmer among first basemen, Dustin Pedroia among second basemen and Todd Frazier among third basemen, so even if you feel like you're set at those positions, you shouldn't be sleeping on Solarte. One little injury could make him the player who saves your season.
4. A Ful tank
How good is Michael Fulmer? Since introducing his changeup to an already scintillating fastball-slider pairing, he has been near impenetrable, allowing no more than one earned run in any of his last nine starts to bring his season ERA to just north of 2.00:
Yeah, he's at a little less than a strikeout per inning, but come on. In a year when half the aces have fallen flat on their faces and presumed breakout candidates like Carlos Rodon, Yordano Ventura and Matt Moore have been on and off the waiver wire, Fulmer has become a stabilizing force.
And yet I get the feeling his Fantasy owners don't quite perceive him that way.
Yeah, he's a rookie pitcher which makes for some workload concerns, and the Tigers have voiced them recently, mapping out a conservative usage plan leading up to the All-Star break that they've since had to scrap because of injuries to Jordan Zimmermann and Daniel Norris. So he's useful now, sure, but come to depend on him too much, and you'll liable to get the rug pulled out from under you.
Or maybe not. See, while Julio Urias threw only 80 1/3 innings last year and Lucas Giolito threw only 117, Fulmer threw 124 2/3 between high Class A and Double-A. He's on pace for fewer than that this season, and normally teams permit an increase of at least 30 for their developing pitchers. With the way he's going now, they'll probably set the limit at about 160. He's at 92 now. Say he averages six innings a start going forward, which is actually better than he has done so far, and he's looking at 11 more starts or about 2-3 fewer than the average pitcher will get.
Which should cast Fulmer in a different light. You're not going to feel the effects of that limit for a while yet. He's not just a nice find off a waiver wire, then. He's a mainstay in your starting rotation, and I suspect he'll remain that as he runs away with AL Rookie of the Year honors.
5. To drop or not to drop?
The clunkers were easy to spot Wednesday. Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda are two of those aforementioned breakout candidates who've been on and off the waiver wire all season, and well, they didn't exactly clear things up with their latest outings:
Or did they?
Smyly may well have. It was just a couple weeks ago I was admitting defeat with him, one of my preferred breakout candidates coming into the year, having come to realize that his extreme fly-ball tendencies, some of the most extreme in the league, leave him too vulnerable to home runs.
And six home runs later, here he sits with a 5.47 ERA and only one quality start to show in his last eight.
Granted, he had 12 strikeouts in that quality start -- a 6 2/3-inning effort against the Mariners June 15 -- which is what is keeping us transfixed, but how much misery has come with it? And how much hope does he have to turn it around, being so home run-prone. His FIP, which tells us what ERA should be according to strikeout, walk and home run rates, sits at 4.48.
His numbers being what they are, you'll probably have another shot at him even if he turns things around, as Pineda himself has shown. Yes, I had given up on the Yankees right-hander earlier this season -- about the point when he boasted a 6.00 ERA dating back to the final two months last season -- but in his most recent seven starts, including Wednesday's disaster, he has a 3.43 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
His FIP stands at a more respectable 3.79 (and improving), which leads me to believe his meltdown Wednesday was the sort of blip every pitcher has from time to time and no real cause for alarm. Each of his previous six starts was excellent, so it's not like you never know what you're going to get from him.
Pineda strikes me as undroppable still, but Smyly I don't think should prevent you from picking up Anthony DeSclafani, Tyler Glasnow, Junior Guerra or any other flavor of the week. Those players are more likely to be claimed by someone else right now, and sometimes they pan out. It's what Michael Fulmer was once upon a time.
