Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2018 and Busts: Model that beat experts warns about Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado

Last season, Xander Bogaerts was plucked off Fantasy Baseball draft boards extremely early, but instead of repeating his impressive 115 runs, 98 RBI and 21 home runs from 2017, Bogaerts face-planted. He finished the 2017 season with just 62 RBI and 10 homers.

The team at SportsLine was all off Bogaerts last year. Their model had the Red Sox shortstop finishing well outside the top five at his position despite Bogaerts being the consensus No. 1 SS in most drafts.

SportsLine's model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy companies. And that same group is sharing their Fantasy Baseball positional rankings for 2018.

In fact, when it came to ranking players in Fantasy Football, SportsLine's Projection Model beat human experts last season when there were big differences in ranking. And the model was the closest-to-the-hole overall, meaning it best pinpointed where every player would finish each week. That could literally be the difference between winning your league or going home empty-handed.

One huge bust SportsLine is calling this season: Orioles 3B Manny Machado. He has an ADP of 16, but SportsLine's model has him ranked behind players like Anthony Rendon (41 ADP) and Josh Donaldson (29 ADP). Don't be fooled by Machado's preseason hype.

Machado's production has declined since his career season in 2015. His runs have fallen from 102 to 81, his batting average has dipped from .286 to .259, and his stolen bases have dropped from 20 to nine, costing your fantasy baseball team plenty of points.

Another player you'll want to steer clear of is Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw is currently the No. 1 starting pitcher being drafted, but SportsLine's projections point towards the Dodgers' ace being overvalued at an ADP of 10. Rather than reach for this Fantasy Baseball bust, SportsLine has Chris Sale (14 ADP), Corey Kluber (15 ADP) and Max Scherzer (12 ADP) all ranked above him.

SportsLine's model is also calling for a starting pitcher to bust in a major way. Rather than targeting him, their projections call for Alex Wood, Gio Gonzalez and Masahiro Tanaka to have similar production.

So what busts should you avoid in your Fantasy Baseball draft? And what big-name pitcher could ruin your season? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Baseball rankings for every single position from the model that called Xander Bogaerts' face-plant last season, and find out.

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