Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2018 & Busts: Model that beat experts warns about Yoenis Cespedes, Jon Lester

Last season, Xander Bogaerts was plucked off Fantasy Baseball draft boards extremely early, but instead of repeating his impressive 115 runs, 98 RBI and 21 home runs from 2017, Bogaerts face-planted. He finished the 2017 season with just 62 RBI and 10 homers.

The team at SportsLine was all off Bogaerts last year. Their model had the Red Sox shortstop finishing well outside the top five at his position despite Bogaerts being the consensus No. 1 SS in most drafts.

SportsLine's model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy companies. And that same group is sharing their Fantasy Baseball positional rankings for 2018.

In fact, when it came to ranking players in Fantasy Football, SportsLine's Projection Model beat human experts this season when there were big differences in ranking. And the model was the closest-to-the-hole overall, meaning it best pinpointed where every player would finish each week. That could literally be the difference between winning your league or going home empty-handed.

One huge bust SportsLine is calling for this season: Mets OF Yoenis Cespedes. He has an ADP of 53.4, but SportsLine's model has him ranked behind players like Domingo Santana (254.8 ADP) and Lorenzo Cain (137.3 ADP). Don't be fooled by Cespedes' preseason hype; dodge him on draft day.

Another player you'll want to steer clear of is Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester, who has posted an ERA of 3.34 or worse in two of his past three seasons. His ERA and WHIP percentages shot up last season to 4.33 and 1.32, respectively, his worst numbers since 2012.

Rather than reach for this Fantasy Baseball bust like many drafters are, SportsLine has pitchers like Jose Quintana (76.6 ADP), David Price (84.7 ADP), and Luis Severino (228.6 ADP) all ranked above him.

SportsLine's model is also calling for another big-name starting pitcher to bust in a major way. Rather than targeting him, their projections call for Quintana, Dallas Keuchel and Chris Archer to have similar production.

So what busts should you avoid in your Fantasy Baseball draft? And what big-name pitcher could ruin your season? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Baseball rankings for every single position from the model that called Xander Bogaerts' face-plant last season, and find out.

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