Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2019 and Busts: Model that beat experts warns about Jose Quintana, Luis Castillo

With dozens of high-profile free agents that remain unsigned as 2019 MLB spring training begins, players are expressing their frustrations with ownership over tentativeness to extend offers at fair market value. Manny Machado was able to cut through it all to land a 10-year, $300 million deal with the Padres earlier this week, but studs like Bryce Harper and Craig Kimbrel aren't getting offers to their liking. That's forcing Fantasy baseball players to take some guesses with draft season already in full swing. Of course, one key to every season is avoiding Fantasy baseball busts. And a reliable set of 2019 Fantasy baseball rankings are the best way to identify the landmines you must navigate around. That's why you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say before your drafts. It's updated with all the latest MLB free agency news to help you steer clear of 2019 Fantasy baseball busts, while finding sleepers and breakouts in the process. 

Last year, their model warned that Orioles starting pitcher Dylan Bundy was being overvalued. Bundy was the No. 40 starting pitcher drafted on average in CBS Sports leagues, but finished at No. 68 thanks to a sky-high 5.45 ERA. The team at SportsLine was all over Bundy as one of its biggest Fantasy baseball busts from the start. Their model had him listed much lower than expert consensus Fantasy baseball rankings, and anyone who listened to their advice was well positioned for a league title. 

Their model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2019 Fantasy Baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy Baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. Any time an injury occurs or there's a change on a depth chart, the team at SportsLine updates its rankings. 

In fact, when it came to ranking players in Fantasy football, SportsLine's Projection Model beat human experts last season when there were big differences in ranking. And the model was the closest to the hole overall, meaning it best pinpointed where every player would finish each week. That could literally be the difference between winning your league or going home empty-handed. 

One of the potential 2019 Fantasy baseball busts the model is predicting: Cubs starting pitcher Jose Quintana.

After six solid seasons on the South Side with the White Sox, Quintana was traded north to the Cubs in 2017 and he hasn't been as successful since. His ERA was above 4.00 for the last two seasons in a row in total and the Cubs might be starting to feel some buyer's remorse with the prospects they gave up (Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease), both on the verge of breaking through for the White Sox.

From a Fantasy perspective, just as concerning as the inflated ERA is the fact that his K/9 plummeted from 9.87 to 8.16 from 2017 to 2018. That may have something to do with a lack of trust in his secondary offerings, as he threw fewer sinkers, changeups and cutters than at any point in the previous three seasons in 2018. At 30, Quintana is slowing down and the model is projecting that trend to continue. His current ADP is No. 46 among starting pitchers, but the model predicts he'll be the No. 57 Fantasy starting pitcher in 2019.

Another player that SportsLine's Fantasy baseball rankings 2019 are fading: Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo

Castillo is currently the No. 30 starting pitcher off the board in standard leagues. However, SportsLine's Fantasy baseball rankings 2019 project him to finish as just the No. 85 starting pitcher.

That's because there are a number of peripherals to suggest that what we saw in 2018 was more in line with who he actually is as a pitcher rather than in his impressive rookie year. In 89.1 innings in 2017, Castillo had a 3.12 ERA and struck out 9.87 batters per nine innings. He did all that while benefiting from an extraordinarily low BABIP of .247 (.300 is average). 

Last season, that BABIP rose to .282 and the effects were dramatic, as Castillo's ERA fell to 4.30. Even worse, he induced far fewer ground balls and saw his home run rate skyrocket from 1.11 per nine innings to 1.49, while striking out just 8.75 batters per full game. Anyone drafting Castillo in the top 100 picks of their Fantasy baseball draft is hoping he'll revert to his rookie season form, but there's not a lot in the numbers to suggest that will happen.

SportsLine is also predicting one of the consensus No. 1 players at his position to struggle mightily in 2019 and finish outside the top five. You'll want to avoid drafting him with an early pick, as that could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. 

So which potential Fantasy Baseball busts should you avoid in your draft? Visit SportsLine now to get 2019 Fantasy Baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Dylan Bundy's huge bust last season, and find out.

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