Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Week 22: Model that beat experts says start Willy Adames, sit Rafael Devers
Advanced computer model that has outperformed experts tells you who to sit and start
In most leagues, the trade deadline has passed, which means the only way to outmaneuver your opponents is by making savvy Fantasy baseball waiver wire additions and optimizing your lineups. We've seen prospects like Aristides Aquino and Bo Bichette make major impacts recently, so landing the next rising star and trusting them enough to put them in your lineup could be the difference between a championship and the toilet bowl this season. Stars are still continuing to shine at this time of year too, as Mets rookie Pete Alonso is now just seven RBIs away from 100, while Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Cody Bellinger have all slugged an MLB-high 41 homers. Reliable 2019 Fantasy baseball rankings like the ones you'll find at SportsLine can help ensure you're getting the most out of your lineups as you head toward the playoffs.
When it comes to ranking players, the model beat human experts in Fantasy football last season when there were big differences in ranking. And the model was closest-to-the-hole overall, meaning it best pinpointed where every player would finish each week.
Last week, the model was extremely high on Yankees third baseman Gio Urshela, saying he'd finish No. 7 at his position despite a market ranking of 17th. The result: Urshela is hitting .545 so far in Week 21, the No. 4 third baseman. Anybody who had him in their lineup was well on their way to a huge week.
Now the model, which simulates every pitch and every at-bat 10,000 times, has revealed its rankings for Week 22 (Aug. 19 to 25).
For Week 22, we can tell you Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, the fourth-best player at his position according to market value, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top 20. He's a player to consider putting on the bench this week.
Devers has a five-game week for the Red Sox, who have the Phillies at home and a difficult trip out west to play the Padres. Devers isn't familiar with either pitching staff, with just two games of experience against the Phillies and none against the Padres. He has a total of just 27 at-bats against pitchers on either roster, and two off-days make him a risky play in Week 22.
One player the model is high on this week: Rays shortstop Willy Adames. The 23-year-old is finding his rhythm at the plate, raising his OPS by 50 points since July 21. Adames has five home runs since that date and is currently riding a streak of three consecutive multi-hit games.
His overall slash line on the season is down from .278/.348/.406 a year ago to .249/.314/.412 this season, but he's actually making better contact more consistently than he did last season. His hard-hit contact rate is up from 34.7 percent to 41.9 and his BABIP is 61 points lower than it was a year ago. The peripherals indicate that Adames is due for a strong close to the season, which is why SportsLine ranks him as their No. 8 shortstop in their Week 22 Fantasy baseball rankings even though he's owned in just 27 percent of CBS Sports leagues.
The model is also calling for a surprising catcher you aren't even thinking about to finish in the top five of its Week 22 Fantasy baseball rankings. This pick could be the difference between winning big and going home with nothing.
So who should you sit and start this week? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 22 Fantasy baseball rankings for every position, plus see which catcher is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top five, all from the model that out-performed experts in football big time last season, and find out.
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