Believe it or not, we're about a quarter of the way through the 2021 season.

One reason you may not believe it because you're still waiting for your first- or second-round pick to return something on the investment. Yes, the hitters in particular have been a little slow out of the gate.

Injuries are partly to blame. The new baseball may also be having an effect, though I think it's less true for this class of hitters than for those further down the ranks. You may be wondering, though, if that early-round dud of yours is retaining his value. If, by chance, we were redrafting today, would he still go in the same spot, or would some of the early-season risers surpass him?

To answer that question, among others, I've taken it upon myself to model what the first two rounds would look if we were redrafting today for the rest of 2021. To be clear, nobody gets credit for anything a player has done already, just what he does from today forward.

As you can see, many of the names would remain the same, if drafted in a slightly different order, but there are also several newcomers, particularly in the second round.

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Round 1
Ronald Acuna Atlanta Braves RF
Of the obvious top four hitters coming into the year, he's been the only one to live up to the billing and then some, cutting his strikeout rate nearly in half from a year ago.
Juan Soto Washington Nationals RF
He's still treading water after a two-week absence for a shoulder strain, but the data likes him to bounce back in a big way. Give him a break -- he doesn't even have 100 at-bats yet.
Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers RF
The plate discipline remains as good as ever and the expected stats not out of line with much of his career. He's still one of the better bets for five-category production.
Gerrit Cole New York Yankees SP
It was such a close call between Cole, Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber coming into the season, but Cole has the fewest blemishes thus far. With only five walks through nine starts, he might be the best he's ever been.
Trea Turner Washington Nationals SS
Now that he's proven his power outburst last year wasn't a short-season fluke, it's time to regard him among the best all-around hitters. He's no longer just a first-round stolen base novelty.
Jacob deGrom New York Mets SP
His actual performance has been everything you could ask for, but he's had to leave back-to-back starts with shoulder and neck issues. Supposedly, they're no big deal, but it's reasonable to wonder if he'll need to continue to manage them.
Shane Bieber Cleveland Indians SP
He's looked a little off in his past few starts, particularly with all the walks. He still leads the majors in innings and strikeouts, so it's nothing to lose our heads over, but it's enough to slot him third among the first-round ace trifecta.
Jose Ramirez Cleveland Indians 3B
He continues to do his thing, and I can't really say anything negative about it. I guess I'm less confident in him hitting for average than the five hitters ahead of him, just going by track record, though his .316 xBA would suggest he deserves much better in that category than he's gotten so far.
Trevor Story Colorado Rockies SS
I'm expecting close to his usual production still and would point out that Coors Field wasn't playing much like Coors Field during a particularly cold April. His strikeout and walk rates are both actually the best they've ever been.
Freddie Freeman Atlanta Braves 1B
He's been putting the ball on the ground and falling victim to the shift more, but his career .338 BABIP tells you everything you need to know about his current .200 mark. MVP-caliber production remains the expectation.
Vladimir Guerrero Toronto Blue Jays 1B
The inevitable breakthrough has come. Guerrero is elevating enough to get the most out of his preternatural bat skills, and batting average should be cinch if he's putting this many balls over the fence. Honestly, it's a pretty close call between him and Freeman.
Trevor Bauer Los Angeles Dodgers SP
Is everyone ready to admit Trevor Bauer is good yet? Good.
Round 2
Fernando Tatis San Diego Padres SS
It's hard to know exactly how much to downgrade him amid the looming threat of a labral tear every time he follows through on his swing, but since that scare in early April, the production has been there, give or take some points on the batting average. A top-five talent can only slip so far.
Yu Darvish San Diego Padres SP
The early-round arms have come through better than the early-round bats, it would appear. Whatever lingering doubts people had about this one should be gone.
Max Scherzer Washington Nationals SP
The underlying numbers were still strong last year, but the rise in ERA and WHIP still convinced some it was the beginning of the end for the 36-year-old. You could make the case to move him up even more, slotting behind the big three of Cole, deGrom and Bieber.
Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies RF
He's been a little banged up lately and has seen his strikeout rate climb again this year, but the expected stats are still off the charts, with the actual ones not too far behind. If stolen bases are going to be a regular part of his game, he's not far from re-entering the first-round discussion.
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels DH
He's one who might place lower in points leagues, given the shaky plate discipline, but now that he's truly an everyday player, having gotten to bat in all but two games this year, we're seeing the impact his power/speed combo can have. The flexibility to use him at starting pitcher is just a bonus, frankly.
Tyler Glasnow Tampa Bay Rays SP
Introducing a slider this year has optimized his entire arsenal and given the Rays the confidence to use him a third time through the order. He indeed needed to work deeper into games to ascend to this level of acedom, but it could cost him later in the year if the innings pile up too fast.
Xander Bogaerts Boston Red Sox SS
This one risks being too high in the long run, but only by a round or so. And it's just so refreshing to see a hitter doing consistent damage this year that I don't think I could pass him up at this point, small markup or not.
J.D. Martinez Boston Red Sox DH
We regarded him at this level from 2018 through 2020, so I don't know why we wouldn't again now that he's back to doing the things he did from 2017 through 2019. If anything, he's more valuable now with offense being down across the league.
Manny Machado San Diego Padres 3B
The production is down, clearly, but I don't see reason for concern in the underlying numbers. If anything, I'm encouraged that he already has six stolen bases. If those are part of his game again, it'll be difficult for him not to return second-round value.
Bo Bichette Toronto Blue Jays SS
Between attrition and the stifling effect of the new baseball, shortstop isn't looking so deep anymore, which means the genuine difference-makers at the position are deserving of an upcharge. Bichette's OPS so far is pretty blah, but he's measuring up at the position thanks in part to his steals.
Brandon Woodruff Milwaukee Brewers SP
You could make the case for him to go higher, probably, but I do think in the long run his stats won't look so different from Aaron Nola's or Walker Buehler's or several of the other pitchers I've left out here. He's deserving of leading that tier, but his numbers have to regress some.
Christian Yelich Milwaukee Brewers LF
He's back from the IL, hopefully freed from the nagging back issues that have plagued him this year, so I remain hopeful he'll soon be back to MVP-caliber production. But since we haven't actually seen that sort of production since 2019, I'd classify this ranking as fairly optimistic.

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