Fantasy Baseball Spring Notebook: On Sonny Gray's injury, Craig Kimbrel's delivery, Alek Manoah and Bobby Witt

Injuries were the story of the weekend, including a pair for a Reds starting rotation with some noteworthy arms in waiting.

Sonny Gray is expected to begin the year on the IL because of back spasms that are preventing him from throwing. It was back soreness that sidelined him for a stretch in the middle of last season as well and may have compromised his effectiveness. It sounds like the Reds are trying to prevent it from becoming a lingering issue, but at this point, you have to consider it a recurring one.

"It's just the way it kind of breaks down and the way we've all kind of thought about it was, 'Do we take five or six days right now and completely try to knock it out so you're a week behind to start the season or eight days or whatever it ends up being?'" Gray said. "'Or do you just keep going and maybe it turns into a larger issue and then maybe you miss 10 starts? Maybe you miss 12 starts? Maybe you miss 15 starts?' Maybe you miss zero, I don't know."

Gray drops out of the top 35 starting pitchers with this news, but his absence will create an opportunity for a young pitcher who deserves one. Of course, whether Tejay Antone himself is healthy enough to claim the job is a question unto itself after he left Sunday's game with a groin strain. The 27-year-old with the swing-and-miss slider expects to make his next spring start, however. He has struck out 13 in 7 2/3 innings this spring, allowing just one earned run.

If Antone himself were to miss time or veteran Wade Miley (hamstring) isn't ready for the start of the season, then another spot potentially opens up for Jose De Leon, the former Dodgers prospect who has been sidetracked by injuries the past few years. Throwing harder and with more confidence in his slider, the 28-year-old struck out eight over three innings in his last appearance Wednesday, though he also issued three walks.

We analyze the Sonny Gray injury and boom or bust players on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast embedded below, and make sure you subscribe at Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you get your podcasts for more of our comprehensive draft prep coverage:

Other injury updates

Stephen Strasburg, who's already recovering from carpal tunnel surgery, left Sunday's start after 45 pitches with a calf injury, though he downplayed it afterward, saying "grabbed [him] a little bit" but "it's not something that's going to require any sort of long-term recovery." He also called it "sort of a precautionary thing." The bigger development is that he looked to be in midseason form, striking out four in 2 1/3 scoreless innings.
Padres catcher Austin Nola fractured the middle finger on left hand Sunday, and though the team isn't saying so yet, an IL stint seems likely. A.J. Cassavell of MLB.com says rookie Luis Campusano is a candidate to make the roster if Nola isn't recovered in time, though if Nola isn't looking at an extended absence, Campusano might play more of a backup role to Victor Caratini before returning to the minors.
Brendan Rodgers, the Rockies projected starter at second base and one of my post-hype sleepers, suffered a strained hamstring on a stolen base attempt Saturday. He pulled up before even reaching the base but was able to walk off the field under his own power. The severity isn't known yet. Speedster Garrett Hampson would likely get a chance to play more if Rodgers misses time.
Yordan Alvarez made his spring debut Sunday and went 0 for 3, but the way his knees are feeling sounds like a night-and-day difference from a year ago. "I told you guys before that I feel a lot better than people must think," he said. "I feel healthy." Though he's eligible only at DH, we may see his draft stock skyrocket depending in the weeks ahead.
Carlos Carrasco, who was shut down earlier in the week with elbow soreness that isn't unfamiliar to him this time of year, threw from 75 feet Sunday and "felt pretty good." He plans to throw a bullpen session Tuesday and still expects to be ready for the start of the season. "I know my body, I know my routine, I know everything," Carrasco said. "I'm going to be ready for the season."
Though the Athletics plan to be cautious with left-hander A.J. Puk's innings this year given his injuries of the past couple years, the top prospect is looking more likely to begin the year in the starting rotation with veteran right-hander Mike Fiers contending with back and hip issues. Right-hander Daulton Jefferies, another prospect, is also a candidate.
We learned earlier this week that Yankees right-hander Luis Severino, who's working his way back from Tommy John surgery, is already throwing off a mound and earning glowing reviews for it. He may only be a couple months from returning if he's already progressed to that point, so it's time to think of him as a priority stash in leagues that offer an IL spot.
White Sox catcher Yasmani Grandal, who twisted his knee early and camp, returned to the lineup as a DH Saturday but didn't sound confident he'd be ready for opening day.
Reds left-hander Amir Garrett, who's contending with a sore forearm, threw a bullpen session Thursday and seemed fine. Manager David Bell expects him back in a game soon, so it sounds like he's still the leading contender for the closer gig.

Other developments

Royals shortstop Bobby Witt, who was the second pick in the 2019 draft, has been turning heads this spring, connecting for a home run off Dodgers lefty Julio Urias Sunday. He had a 484-foot shot earlier in the week and has three home runs this spring. Though he's only 20 and has yet to play a game above rookie ball, it's not outside the realm of possibility he could get called up later this year, particularly if the Royals are in contention.
Mariners second baseman Shed Long, who has yet to appear in a Cactus League game because of inflammation in his surgically repaired shin, isn't any closer to returning. "We're probably going to pull him back a little bit," manager Scott Servais said. "It's just not responding great." It means Dylan Moore is a near lock to open as the starting second baseman, with Moore also battling Mitch Haniger for the leadoff spot. Though Moore still has to prove his out-of-nowhere breakthrough last year was no fluke, the added job security helps his chances.
Indians manager Terry Francona seemed to suggest Saturday that Andres Gimenez is the shortstop, according to Zack Meisel of The Athletic, giving Amed Rosario a chance to play some in center field. "Part of the reason we felt comfortable enough to move Amed is because of what we see in Gimenez," said Francona. "This kid is a really bright spot for us." Gimenez, who came over with Rosario in the Francisco Lindor deal this offseason, is 7 for 21 with two homers, a triple, a stolen base and only two strikeouts so far.
Tyler O'Neill is competing for the left field job with Lane Thomas, but unlike when he was competing in past years, he's the one with the advantage. He furthered it with a 3-for-3 performance Sunday, making him 9 for 19 (.474) with two homers this spring. The 25-year-old slugger is one of my post-hype sleepers for this season.
After initially saying the leadoff spot would come down to speedy outfielder Myles Straw and shortstop Carlos Correa, Astros manager Dusty Baker later added second baseman Jose Altuve's name to the list. Straw is the one whose Fantasy value most hangs in the balance, though either way, he'll get some late-round looks as a stolen base specialist.
The Cardinals have a plan for former top prospect Alex Reyes to throw 100 innings this year, though they'll come entirely in relief. The goal is to put the talented 26-year-old in a position to return to the starting rotation in 2022. Since he will be throwing multiple-inning stints, it's still possible he's a relevant Fantasy contributor in 2021.
Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro said earlier this week that Ross Stripling has the inside track on a rotation spot with rookie Nate Pearson sidelined by a groin injury. Stripling had a 3.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 for the Dodgers in 2018 and 2019, splitting his time between the rotation and bullpen, but struggled last year while trying out a new fastball grip. He started a new long toss program this offseason with a hope of developing more velocity.
Blue Jays pitching prospect Alek Manoah might be positioning himself for a midseason call-up. He struck out seven over three perfect innings Sunday, dominating the Yankees lineup for a second straight outing. He has 11 strikeouts to no walks in five innings this spring. "If you want to give a first impression, he's done a great job of that," said manager Charlie Montoyo. "His first two outings have been outstanding. He seems in control, he's not nervous, he's ready to attack the hitters. His line shows what he did. It wasn't luck. He just dominated today."
After some concerns about his velocity early, John Means' fastball was back up to 94 mph Friday. That's where it was last year, when he seemed to find a new gear in his final four starts, making him one of my breakout picks for this year. The performance was better, too. He allowed one run on two hits in four innings, striking out four. "That was probably the best I've felt," the left-hander said. "The fastball was definitely there."
Athletics left-hander Sean Manaea, whose fastball velocity has hovered around 90 mph the past couple years, went retro in his Cactus League debut Saturday, hitting 93-94 with regularity. "That was exciting," he said. "I don't think I've hit that in a long time. Everything that I've been working on has been coming out and my body feels great." He worked to improve his mobility and durability this offseason, which may have made his delivery more efficient, according to Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. "I did well without throwing hard for a couple of years and that really made me learn how to pitch," Manaea said. "Having some more velo now and having learned how to pitch I think will take me a long way."
Giants right-hander Logan Webb has been killing it this spring, striking out six in three one-hit innings Saturday. "That's as good as I've ever seen his changeup look," said manager Gabe Kapler, who thinks it has the potential to be an elite pitch. "I don't want to overdo it here, but he's been really impressive in this camp. He's been really impressive because he's doing exactly what we had hoped and kind of prompted him to do, which is to use his secondary pitches with the same level of confidence that he uses his fastball." The 24-year-old has a chance to make the starting rotation with Aaron Sanchez (shoulder) having yet to make his Cactus League debut and should start to earn some looks in deeper leagues.
Rays shortstop Wander Franco, widely considered the top prospect in the game, got a start at third base Sunday. It may be the 20-year-old's quickest path to the majors with Willy Adames holding down the shortstop job. "He looks very comfortable, basically, with a glove or a bat in his hand," manager Kevin Cash said.
Craig Kimbrel, who seemed to get back on track late last year after struggling to begin his Cubs tenure, has been dealing with delivery issues early this spring, allowing nine earned runs in 2 2/3 innings. "We need to get him in the lab," manager David Ross said on Saturday. "The ball just wasn't coming out like it normally could [Friday]. It didn't look like it had much behind it in general. Even though the radar gun said 94-95 [mph], it wasn't as explosive as it normally is." The issues are similar to the ones that cost Kimbrel the closer gig early last year, according to MLB.com. Though he still has big strikeout potential and the upside of a top-10 relief pitcher, you'll want to see signs of a turnaround before investing too much in him.