It's now June 11, which gives us just over two months worth of data on the 2021 MLB season. At this point we should have a pretty good idea on a player's outlook -- or should we? Eduardo Rodriguez remains one of the more confounding starting pitchers to this point. On the surface, he's been awful. He put up another clunker on the Thursday and now has a 7.58 ERA over his last eight starts. That's a pretty big sample! All the while, he's still getting a good amount of strikeouts, he's limiting walks and has a 3.44 xFIP. Is he a clear drop? It depends. I would drop him for Luis Severino, Tarik Skubal or Mike Minor. I would not do it for Tucker Davidson, Logan Gilbert or Austin Gomber.

A hitter we keep getting questions about is Matt Chapman. He's now batting .201 with a .630 OPS. I'm more confident we can drop Chapman than Rodriguez. With Chapman, we don't even have underlying numbers that give us hope. Remember, he had hip surgery last offseason, which could very well be playing into this. The problem is that there are not many exciting third basemen to add right now. If you have another starting third baseman on your roster and you just want to drop Chapman for an upside play at a different position, I don't have a problem with that.

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Rogers continues to dominate


The expectation was that at some point Marlins SP Trevor Rogers would crash back down to earth, but that hasn't happened yet, and it's fair to wonder if it actually will this season. Rogers was dominant again on Thursday over seven innings, allowing just two runs, four hits and one walk. He added eight strikeouts with 18 swinging strikes on 87 pitches (eight induced on the changeup, seven on the four-seam fastball). 

This was Rogers' third straight quality start and he has allowed three earned runs or less in every single start this season. Rogers now has a 2.02 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP on the season. At this point, Rogers is performing like a bona fide SP1. Of course, the question remains when will the Marlins pull the plug and slap an innings limit on him. For now, enjoy the ride.

I think Rogers' innings limit might be something we'll have to worry about in August. In about a month, it might be time to sell high on him if he's still pitching at such a dominant level. 

The sticky situation surrounding the Yankees again

Despite all the attention being paid to Yankees SP Gerrit Cole's spin rate following allegations that he uses foreign sticky substances to increase said spin rate, it was closer Aroldis Chapman who might have some questions to answer after Thursday's blow up. Chapman was crushed, allowing two two-run homers to Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz.

However, the story surrounds the underlying numbers. The spin rate on Chapman's fastball was down 129 rpm. His fastball velocity was also down 2.3 mph overall. But that wasn't all. The spin rate on Chapman's slider was down 184 rpm. Troubling numbers worth monitoring moving forward.

More news and notes

Prospect updates

Best hitter matchups in Week 12

  1. Indians: BAL4, @PIT3
  2. Mets: CHC4, @WAS4
  3. Brewers: CIN3, @COL4
  4. Padres: @COL3, CIN4
  5. Nationals: PIT3, NYM4

Worst hitter matchups in Week 12

  1. Astros: TEX2, CHW4
  2. Rangers: @HOU2, MIN3
  3. Phillies: @LAD3, @SF3
  4. Reds: @MIL3, @SD4
  5. Diamondbacks: @SF4, LAD3

Waiver wire possibilities

  • Tigers 2B Jonathan Schoop (63% rostered) went for 3 for 4 with his 10th homer on Thursday. In his last 24 games, he's hitting .358 eight homers.
  • Brewers SS Willy Adames (39% rostered) went 2 for 5 on Thursday with two doubles, two runs, and an RBI.
  • Reds 1B Joey Votto (44% rostered) went 1 for 4 with his sixth homer on Thursday and he's hitting the ball his hardest in the Statcast era with a .262 xBA and .518 xSLG.
  • Mariners OF Jake Fraley (5% rostered) now has three stolen bases over his last seven games, if you need speed.
  • Red Sox 2B Christian Arroyo (4% rostered) went 1 for 3 with his second homer on Thursday. He also added four RBI. He's now batting .284 and has started seven of the last nine games.

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