Fantasy Baseball: Tuesday's DFS Advice
Why won't he use the top three aces on Tuesday night in Daily Fantasy? Heath Cummings explains this change in fading strategy.
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Monday seemed like a day when a lot of runs would be scored, and instead a lot of mediocre pitchers turned in outstanding performances. Chalk it up to another reason why bankroll management is important and move on.
Tuesday brings us a 15-game slate with a lot of mediocre pitching that could also be intriguing in tournaments. One thing you'll notice though, is that none of the three most expensive pitchers made my top three. That's not normal, so I thought I'd explain it.
Jake Arrieta and Noah Syndergaard face each other. That's one strike already as it decreases their win potential. Syndergaard also has an obviously difficult matchup and elbow concerns to worry about. While Arrieta's matchup seems better, the Mets lead baseball in ISO in the month of July and get a positive park shift factor. Not great.
As for Danny Salazar, it would be easy to cite the fact that he's making his first start off the DL. Then again, so is Jameson Taillon and he's third on my list below. Taillon has a better matchup, and the risk/expectations are lower with him because of his price. While home/road splits are wonky for teams, it's really difficult to feel confident using a pitcher against the Royals in Kauffman Stadium unless you feel great about everything else. With Salazar, I don't.
Starting Pitchers
Carlos Martinez ($9,400, $10,200)
The Padres are no longer the laughingstock of baseball with their offensive performance. In the month of July they're tied for eighth in wOBA (.338) and they're second in ISO (.225). Still, they're striking out even more often than they were earlier in the year (27.9 percent). I have believed since the start of the year that Martinez was an ace and recently he has pitched like one. He's also the biggest favorite of the day (-200) and the Padres have the second lowest implied run total.
Vincent Velasquez ($8,600, $9,700)
Velasquez has seen his upside limited by his inability to pitch deep into games, but he's been remarkably consistent in the three starts since returning from the DL. In all three starts, Velasquez has pitched between 5-6 innings, struck out between 6-7 and scored between 42-48 FanDuel points. It also helps that the opposing pitcher is Jose Urena.
Jameson Taillon ($7,200, $8,800)
Taillon returns from the DL to face a Brewers offense that strikes out more than any other team vs. RHP. They're also a team (like the Yankees) that has seen its offensive production propped up by a favorable home park. If you choose to stack Coors, Taillon is the way to go about it.
Stack Attack
Once again we have an interesting pitching matchup at Coors. Tyler Chatwood has been a surprisingly effective starter for the Rockies, and Blake Snell is a highly-touted prospect who has struggled acclimating to the bigs. Chatwood, a split-neutral pitcher for his career, has been exceptionally tough on lefties this year, but righties have killed him at Coors (.408 wOBA). Snell has also been a reverse-splits pitcher this year, but the sample size is so small it's hard to trust. Trevor Story and Ryan Raburn are still good values, but I'm not as excited about this game as I was last night.
Red Sox vs. Giants
Jake Peavy has been surprisingly good at home over the past two years. So much so that it shouldn't really be surprising anymore. On the road, it's a different story. He has given up a .373 wOBA on the road this year, which is just one percentage point better than his number allowed to LHH. This is about as bad as park shifts get for a pitcher, and he's facing arguably the best offense in baseball. David Ortiz is the obvious play, but I'm very interested in Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Travis Shaw.
Tigers vs. Twins
The Tigers stack was extremely disappointing Monday, but there's no time to pout. Tommy Milone is here to save the day! Nick Castellanos and Ian Kinsler are much better vs. LHP and Jose Iglesias is actually a respectable major league hitter against lefties.
Lineups
I'm going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
FanDuel
P Carlos Martinez $9,400
C James McCann $2,000
1B David Ortiz $4,000
2B D.J. LeMahieu $3,800
3B Nick Castellanos $3,300
SS Trea Turner $2,300
OF Nomar Mazara $2,500
OF Jackie Bradley, Jr. $3,500
OF Odubel Herrera $3,800
DraftKings
P Carlos Martinez $10,200
P Brian Flynn $4,000
C Dioner Navarro $3,100
1B Chris Davis $4,000
2B Jose Altuve $4,900
3B Nolan Arenado $5,500
SS Manny Machado $4,100
OF George Springer $4,600
OF Odubel Herrera $4,600
OF Jay Bruce $4,800
















