I'm gonna be honest with you: Monday was not the most exciting day in MLB history. There were only eight games on a travel day, there weren't many notable performances from widely available players we need to alert you to, and there wasn't much in the way of interesting news to cover, either. We'll get to everything you need to know from Monday's action, including some waiver-wire targets to consider, but we also need something else to talk about.
On Monday night's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, Frank Stampfl asked Scott White and I to come up with some buy-low and sell-high candidates at both pitcher and hitter to discuss, and that's what we're going to focus on to kick off today's newsletter. So, let's get to some trade targets, and if you want more, head to the YouTube channel to see who Frank and Scott are looking to get in their deals:
One hitter to buy-low: Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros
Really, I could go with any early-round hitter who is disappointing here. I made the case for Mike Trout as a buy-low candidate last week, and Rafael Devers might be an even more obvious option, given how much panic there was around him in the first couple of weeks of the season. But the slow-starter I'm most convinced will turn things around is Alvarez, who has such a strong track record in recent years that I really don't even need to look at the underlying numbers to make this call. Happily, he's also sporting a 94 mph average exit velocity and his normal strikeout rate, making Alvarez one of the biggest underperformers by expected wOBA of anyone in the league. He's going to be just fine.
One pitcher to buy low: Sandy Alcantara, SP, Marlins
Alcantara's stuff looks fine. Per FanGraphs' Stuff+ model, he's sitting at a 109 mark, compared to a 110 mark prior to his Tommy John surgery; the problem is, his Location+ metric is down from a 105 to 93, a well below-average mark. Command is often the last thing to come back after a major arm injury, so I fully expect Alcantara to keep getting better as he continues to get more reps – the fact that he had his turn in the rotation skipped after his first start of the season surely didn't help. The command will get there for Alcantara, and eventually, he's going to be pitching on a much better team, too. There's going to be a point in the season where you're very happy you kept the faith in Alcantara.
One hitter to sell high: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Yankees
You might see Goldschmidt's .361 batting average and think that's an obvious fluke, but it isn't really – sure, his .307 xBA is significantly worse, but it's still in the 92nd percentile among hitters, so I'm not sure it makes sense to call that a "fluke." He's earned most of those hits, both with a lower strikeout rate and a 33.7% line drive rate that would be his highest since 2020. The underlying data mostly backs up his hot start … I just don't believe in the underlying data. Not that it's false, or anything like that – I just don't think it's sustainable. Goldschmidt hasn't increased his bat speed, and his swing decisions mostly look the same as last year, which suggests there isn't a huge change in skill set here. I think Goldschmidt is just on a heater, and that will end sooner or later for the 37-year-old, who actually has the worst average exit velocity and hard-hit rates of his career.
One pitcher to sell high: Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks
Even going back to Pfaadt's prospect days, I've never been a big believer in him. He has to pitch in the strike zone a lot to overcome middling stuff, which leaves him vulnerable to the kind of blow-up starts he has thus far avoided this season. But, given his history, we know those blow-up starts are coming, and Pfaad is pretty lucky he hasn't been tagged for one yet – his 4.98 xERA suggests he's been exceptionally lucky. I'd be looking to sell Pfaadt right now before the worm turns.
Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB:
Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets
Gavin Lux, 2B, Reds (49%) – Lux just kind of continues to fly under the radar. To a certain extent, I get it – he doesn't have a ton of over-the-fence pop and he rarely steals bases, so there's only so much upside he can bring to the table. On the other hand, he's eligible at multiple spots in your lineup and has been terrific all season long so far, bumping his season line to .352/.438/.473 after another multi-hit game Monday, his sixth in the past nine games. It'd be nice if you could count on him for bigger run or RBI numbers, but the batting average is helpful even without everything else – and his .284 xBA suggests he should still be very useful even when he inevitably slows down.
Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies (66%) – Goodman is starting to look like he might have some staying power. The hype around him has quieted down, but Goodman has been showing some upside again. He homered for the second time in six games Monday to bring his season total to six, to go along with 14 RBI, 13 runs, and a useful .258 average. At a position where playing time is hard to come by, Goodman is an exception, becoming the seventh catcher to reach 100 PA for the season. He's kept the strikeouts manageable enough that he should be a total drag on your batting average, and his power stands out for a catcher. He's a more than viable No. 2 option.
Tony Gonsolin, SP, Dodgers (37%) – With Tyler Glasnow officially on the IL with a shoulder injury and Blake Snell receiving an injection aimed at helping his own ailing shoulder heal, there's suddenly a real path to a long-term rotation spot for Gonsolin. He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2023 after having Tommy John surgery, but that issue is well in the rearview mirror at this point – his return to the majors was derailed by a back injury this spring. Gonsolin averaged 93.2 mph on his minor-league rehab assignment, right where he was during 2022 when he had a 23.9% strikeout rate and 2.14 ERA. He'll return to the rotation for the Dodgers Wednesday and has must-start upside if he can recapture his pre-injury form.
Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Orioles (29%) – I'm not much of a believer in Sugano, but I'll admit, he looked very, very good Monday in striking out eight over five innings against the Yankees. His previous two starts might have been better, in that he finished seven innings in both, but Monday's start was more impressive and hinted at significantly more upside moving forward. The pristine control Sugano was known for in Japan was on full display in this one, as he painted the upper third of the strike with four-seamers, kept the sweeper to the bottom half of the zone on the glove side, and peppered the other side of the zone with his curveball and splitter, ultimately racking up a career-high 17 swinging strikes. It's the first time Sugano has really shown upside at the MLB level, and it's the first time I've really had any interest in adding him, as a result.
