Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Examining Lucas Giolito's upside following his latest performance, and more
Nick Kurtz is clearly talented and should be rostered in every single league

How much can one start tell us? Well, when it comes to how dependable a player is going to be for Fantasy, it can't tell us a whole lot. Max Meyer and Shane Baz have put together some of the very best starts by any pitcher this season, and neither looks like someone you can trust right now. Looking at pitchers who have had starts with at least 10 strikeouts this season returns names like Bryce Elder, Lance McCullers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Taj Bradley, Tylor Megill, Luis Ortiz, and Chris Paddack, none of whom should be viewed as must-roster players, let alone must-start ones.
Which is to say, Lucas Giolito's 10-strikeout performance Monday against the Mariners shouldn't fundamentally change how you view the largely disappointing veteran. The ability to strike out 10 batters in a game in one start tells us very little except that a pitcher is capable of striking out 10 batters in one start. It tells us very little about what the next start is likely to look like.
Of course, before Monday, I wasn't sure Giolito still had the ability to do something like this, even for one start. So, while I don't think this start tells us much about how useful Giolito will be moving forward, it does tell us that he still has the high-end upside to be a difference-maker. And that's not nothing.
How'd he do it? Well, we start where we often do: The fastball velocity, which was up to 94.5 mph, the highest it's been in any start since Giolito's return from Internal Brace surgery. The fastball has generally had a good movement profile and shape and has performed decently, but it's just hard to have a truly good fastball at 93.3 mph; at 94.5 mph, it's a little easier.
But it's the other pitches that really impressed for Giolito. He generated five whiffs with his slider and four with the changeup, the best marks of the season for him. Neither pitch has been any good at all for Giolito this season, and it's worth noting that both pitches were hit hard when Mariners hitters did get the bat on them, putting up a 97.2 mph average exit velocity. That's a red flag, but since we're talking more about upside than anything else right now, it's easier to ignore that and focus on the nine combined whiffs.
It's worth noting that this start was in T-Mobile Park, the best park for pitchers in baseball – including, notably, the highest strikeout park factor for any park in baseball. That impact has been slightly muted so far this season, but over the years, this has been by far the easiest ballpark in baseball to generate strikeouts with, and that's a relevant factor when talking about Giolito's unexpected strikeout breakout.
Does it all add up to Giolito being a must-add player? Oh, certainly not. But I do think it's worth considering adding him in many of the 54% of CBS Fantasy leagues where he's available. There might be someone else more interesting out there – I would add him ahead of Quinn Priester (57%), Ben Casparius (45%), or Clayton Kershaw (66%), and I'd probably add him ahead of Michael Burrows (9%) or Brandon Walter (17%) even though I think they're interesting in their own rights – but I'd say after this start, Giolito has made himself interesting again.
I wasn't sure we'd get there this season. Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB:
Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics (72%) – A trip to the IL got in the way of Kurtz's breakout, but he's starting to show that it was for real. He homered for the second straight game Monday (a walk-off game-winner), and now has six in his past 11 games straddling the IL stint. His strikeout rate is down to 27% in that stretch and his average exit velocity is up to 94.6 mph, which is exactly what we want to see. Kurtz stumbled a bit in his first 20 or so games, but he's clearly a talented prospect who is starting to figure it out, and I do think he basically needs to be rostered in every single league at this point.
Giancarlo Stanton, DH, Yankees (57%) – I'm still not sure how much Stanton is going to play, and that's a major question when it comes to how much more rostered he should be than this. The answer to that question will come in time, but it was nice to get confirmation Monday that Stanton is still capable of Stantonian feats. He went 2 for 4 in his first game of the season, and he had three batted balls hit over 100 mph – including a single that came off the bat at 111.1 mph. That already puts him in the 73rd percentile among all hitters in max exit velo, which is pretty impressive after one game. I'm skeptical he's going to play enough to really be worth using in H2H points, but at least after one game, he showed that he is still capable of making an impact when he's in the lineup.
Jose Soriano, SP, Angels (60%) – Coming off arguably the best start of his career, Soriano followed it up with another impressive performance against the Yankees Monday, shutting them out over seven innings with six strikeouts to one walk. The control has been much better over the past two starts, and the strikeout upside has always been there for Soriano with curveball, splitter, and slider providing very strong swing and miss rates. And that sinker keeps the ball on the ground and prevents damage even though it doesn't miss many bats.
Orion Kerkering, RP, Phillies (17%) – I'm not sure Jordan Romano can get the job done consistently, and I'm not sure the Phillies want to pigeon-hole Matt Strahm into the closer's role, so there might be a path for Kerkering to get some saves in Philadelphia. I think it's pretty unlikely he'll emerge as the runaway choice with his middling strikeout rate and poor control, but Kerkering's 2.63 ERA is backed up by a 3.52 xERA thanks to his strong quality of contact prevention skills. Kerkering probably isn't a shutdown closer, but he might be good enough to work in the role if the Phillies want to give it a try.