It's been a pretty boring couple of weeks on the waiver wire at starting pitcher. The most-added pitchers in recent weeks have mostly been boring veterans like Andrew Heaney, Tyler Mahle, and Jameson Taillon, useful enough streamers, but not the kinds of pitchers worth getting excited about or who should be part of your long-term plans.
And that didn't really change in Tuesday's games. Michael Lorenzen was probably the best widely available pitcher in Tuesday's matchups, and he's … Michael Lorenzen. He's fine. But he's rarely ever more than fine, and he's usually only even fine for a few months at a time before you'll want to put him back on the wire.
But, there are a couple of pitchers who are worth keeping an eye on as they make their season debuts Wednesday – Tony Gonsolin and Lucas Giolito. My expectations are higher for Gonsolin, both because he is younger and has been good more recently, and because he gets the Marlins for a nice soft landing. But both are worth a speculative add ahead of their debuts, in case they can tap into some of the upside they showed prior to their injuries over the past couple of years.
But that's not all. We also have two young pitchers making their MLB debuts Wednesday. And while each is probably only coming up for a spot start, both are talented enough that they could pitch their way into something more than that. So, before we get into our usual Tuesday recap, let's meet Chase Petty and Noah Cameron:
Chase Petty, SP, Reds (4%) – Petty is the less heralded of the Reds' prospects named "Chase" – Chase Burns is one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the game right now – but he's still a name worth knowing. The former first-round pick, acquired in the Sonny Gray trade, has made seven starts over the past two seasons at Triple-A, striking out 34, walking 12, and allowing a 3.00 ERA in 33 innings. He hasn't been dominant – and has especially struggled with the long ball in the early going this season – but he has plus velocity, a couple of good breaking balls (the slider might be more than just "good") and will make his debut as part of a doubleheader against the Cardinals Wednesday. He will likely head back to Triple-A for some more seasoning, but the 22-year-old has a chance to put himself into position to steal a rotation spot if he pitches well. Let's hope he does.
Noah Cameron, SP, Royals (5%) – With Cole Ragans having his start skipped Wednesday due to that groin injury from his previous outing, Cameron is expected to get the call to start against the Rays, and while Cameron isn't exactly a must-add pitcher, he's an interesting one to keep an eye on. He's off to a strong start this season at Triple-A, striking out 27 over 22.2 innings, and he now has a 2.58 ERA and 29.4% strikeout rate over 14 starts at Triple-A over the past two seasons. Cameron sits around 93 mph with his four-seamer from the left side, and neither that nor the cutter really rates out all that well according to scouts. But he has a big curveball with a lot of drop and a changeup with big velocity separation from the fastball, and those two pitches have allowed him to find success at the MiLB level. It might not be enough to work at the MLB level – and he might only be up for a spot start – but his high-minors success makes him worth keeping an eye on as he makes his debut.
Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action around MLB:
Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets
Jorge Polanco, 2B, Mariners (76%) – Polanco continues to look so good. He had two more homers Tuesday, hit 108.1 and 108.9 mph, and he had another fly out to right-center that died at the wall but was hit 106.7 mph and would have been a homer in 18 of 30 MLB ballparks. He's just mashing the ball right now, to a level we've never seen before – which is a good reason to think he won't keep it up. On the other hand, we've seen Polanco be a must-start Fantasy option before, so while I don't think he is suddenly one of the 10 or so best hitters in baseball, I do think it's reasonable to assume that his hot start is indicative of a return to form – and, most importantly, a return to health. He should be 100% rostered.
Carson Kelly, C, Cubs (63%) – I don't have a good explanation for why Kelly suddenly looks like peak Mike Piazza, except to say that weird things can happen in 62-PA sample sizes and it's almost certainly a fluke. Still, there are some underlying changes to point to – Kelly has shortened his stride and is swinging 1.4 mph harder than he did last season on average. That seems like an awfully small change to take Kelly from a below-average expected wOBA to one of the best in baseball like he has now, but hey, a butterfly flaps its wings in Kansas and all that. I'm not really buying it, but if we're going to get excited about any catcher with a whiff of upside … well, there's more than a whiff with Kelly right now.
Lance McCullers, SP, Astros (23%) – My expectations for McCullers are extremely low at this point, given all the injuries that have kept him from reaching even 50 innings in any season since 2021. But I'll admit, I'm mildly intrigued by what he's showing on his rehab assignment. In four starts across Double-A and Triple-A, McCullers has struck out 30.2% of opposing hitters while allowing just four earned runs over 12.2 innings of work. His average fastball velocity is down about 2 mph from his peak, so skepticism is the right response here, but I'm interested in seeing how his return to the majors goes, and that could come some time in the next week.
Kevin Ginkel, RP, Diamondbacks (5%) – With A.J. Puk out with an elbow injury and Justin Martinez looking a bit shaky while dealing with shoulder fatigue, there could actually be a path to a significant role for Ginkel as he returns from his own shoulder injury. Obviously, that depends on him being at full strength himself which is no guarantee. But Ginkel has been a closer-caliber reliever over the past three seasons, putting up a 2.95 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and a 2.83 FIP, so if Martinez falters, Ginkel could figure into the ninth inning plans for the Diamondbacks. And, for whatever it's worth, whenever manager Torey Lovullo would always mention Ginkel as an option to close before the season, even if Fantasy players never really believed him.
