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"Momma said there'd be days like this"
-- The Shirelles
In many facets of life I am firmly "Team Chaos." DFS is not one of them. That doesn't make an eight-game slate where Steven Wright is the most expensive pitcher very fun. I could have written 1,500 words about the best stacks of the day and included an argument for all 16 clubs, but that's not the way this works. We're going to have to choose a pitcher.
I'll avoid cash games on Wednesday, but I suppose the lack of good pitchers does add a layer of intrigue to the slate in tournaments. One contrarian play would be to stack the hottest offenses (Red Sox) and look for struggling hitters against bad pitchers. Here are a couple of suggestions if you choose that route.
Paul Goldschmidt has improved his average recently with six hits in his last 14 at bats but he still has just one extra base hit since May 11. Goldschmidt's ownership will be held down by the presence of David Ortiz and Edwin Encarnacion, but his matchup is just as good. Jeff Locke has given up a .384 wOBA and an .892 OPS to RHH this season.
Since returning from the disabled list, Scooter Gennett has a .195 average and an OPS of .428. Those are atrocious, but his matchup today could get him going. Mike Foltynewicz has faced 272 left-handed hitters in his career and has surrendered a .421 wOBA and an OPS of .998. He's been even worse against lefties in 2016, with more extra base hits allowed than strikeouts. Also, his status as the top bargain pitcher may lead people to skip over Brewers.
The one caveat I'd add is that I wouldn't get so caught up in the craziness that I try to get totally contrarian. Pitcher ownership will be split enough that one or two good contrarian hitters will go a long way.
Hisashi Iwakuma ($8,600, $7,500)
Iwakuma is the closest thing to a good pitcher we get on tonight's slate. He's the second biggest favorite of the day and the Athletics implied run total of 3.4 is the second lowest of the evening. Iwakuma has not been good this season, but he has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts and six of his last eight. I'd expect right around 35-40 FanDuel points, which would be the highest expected total of the night.
Junior Guerra ($7,200, $7,400)
If you can't have a good pitcher, you might as well go with a good matchup. The Braves are 2-18 at home this season, averaging 2.95 runs per game. Guerra has flashed upside in his last two starts with 11 Ks against the Cubs and six shutout innings against the Padres. I wouldn't expect either of those things against the Braves, but a quality start with 30+ Fantasy points seems likely.
Mike Foltynewicz ($6,300, $6,400)
If you don't like Guerra, you might consider the other side of this game. Fotynewicz is not a good pitcher, but the Brewers outside of Miller Park aren't much of an offense either, especially against righties. The main argument for this play is that there are no good pitchers, so you're loading up on expensive hitters. I don't hate it.
Red Sox vs. Rockies
I have this thing I do where I just assume you're going to stack Coors whenever there is a game there. Should I start treating the Red Sox the same no matter where they're playing? They're averaging nearly six runs per game (6.7 at home), which has led to deservedly high prices. Those prices aren't quite as intimidating when the pitching is this bad. Over his career (and this year), Chad Bettis has been a reverse splits guy, so I wouldn't shy away from the Red Sox RHH.
Rays vs. Marlins
The Rays have built a team full of lefty killers, and they face a very bad one today. Amongst pitchers to throw at least 100 innings, Nicolino is one of only four to have a K/9 below 2.6 and a BB/9 above 2.6. Brandon Guyer and Steven Souza are my two favorite plays, but I'd consider any RHH in this lineup. If you want to stack Red Sox and need a few cheap hitters, this is a good place to find them.
Blue Jays @ Yankees
Normally for our podcast, I put together a lineup of BvP All Stars, or players who have had great success against the opposing pitcher. There aren't enough tonight, but the lineup would look a lot like a Yankees/Blue Jays double stack. I could see stacking either side of this game, but Estrada is a better pitcher than Nova, so that's the direction I'd lean.
I'm going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
P Hisashi Iwakuma $8,600
C Welington Castillo $3,100
1B Edwin Encarnacion $3,700
2B Scooter Gennett $2,700
3B Josh Donaldson $3,800
SS Xander Bogaerts $4,400
OF Steven Souza $3,200
OF Brandon Guyer $3,400
OF Mikie Mahtook $2,000
P Hisashi Iwakuma $7,500
P Junior Guerra $7,400
C Welington Castillo $3,600
1B Chris Davis $4,100
2B Dustin Pedroia $4,100
3B Manny Machado $4,500
SS Xander Bogaerts $4,700
OF Jose Bautista $5,400
OF Mikie Mahtook $3,200
OF Mookie Betts $5,500