At this point in the MLB season, there are four words you'll hear more than any other among Fantasy baseball players:
"Sell high!"
"Buy low!"
Obviously, the logic is perfectly sound: A player who gets off to a good start could potentially net you more than they are actually worth -- or at least more than what they'll provide moving forward. And the same is true for slow starters -- they'll provide more value than what you give up moving forward. And the best thing is, when you sell a hot start, you've already banked what may be the best part of their season in your stats.
Of course, it's always easier said than done. Fantasy players are more savvy and sophisticated than ever, which means you can't really expect to sell someone on Ryan Zimmerman's .364 average -- everyone knows about FanGraphs now, everyone knows how to check for signs of unsustainable play. You might get lucky, but selling someone on a mirage is a lot harder to do than it used to be, certainly.
And there's another thing to consider: What if you're wrong and the player isn't a sell-high?
I'm sure many players and analysts view Byron Buxton as an obvious sell-high candidate based on his scorching hot start, and surely he won't continue to be arguably the best player in Fantasy. He's hitting .469/.528/1.094 through his first nine games and he's absolutely crushing everything he sees -- he had a broken-bat double Tuesday that still had a 95 mph exit velocity. That's just ridiculous, and he can't keep this up.
But I would argue Buxton was incredibly underrated coming into the season -- I had him ranked about 60 spots higher in the overall rankings than his 10th-round ADP. His power breakout the last few seasons was real, he's a legitimate 20-steal threat, and he's got a .253-82-28-86-22 line over his last 162 games now. As long as he's healthy, Buxton is likely to be a Fantasy stud.
At least, that's how I would view it. Which means I don't necessarily view him as a sell-high candidate. Oh, sure, if someone is going to give you, like, Marcell Ozuna or Luis Robert for him, I'd do it. However, given that enthusiasm for Buxton was pretty limited coming into the season, I'm going to bet most of the people in your league aren't buying him. He'll fall off, or he'll get hurt, and they won't give you much.
I was on a bit of an island this offseason ranking Buxton ahead of Cavan Biggio, for instance, and I'm not sure most Fantasy players wouldn't still prefer Biggio -- though I disagree rather strongly. In this case, many people would view trading Buxton for Biggio as a case of both buying low and selling high, but I'd argue you'd just be trading for an inferior player.
So, what would a sell-high for Buxton look like? I've got him as an 18 in the trade values chart, and you can definitely look around him in the chart for examples of players to swap him for who would count: I would trade Buxton for someone like Pete Alonso or Aaron Judge, sure; I doubt anyone would actually do either deal. But what about Buxton for Gleyber Torres? Or Hyun-Jin Ryu? Or maybe you could try to grab something like Liam Hendriks and Kyle Lewis for him. I think those would be pretty fair offers, and you might actually be able to pull a trade like that off.
But, given that the perception of Buxton still probably doesn't match how much I value him, my best advice would be to just hang on to him. He'll slow down, sure, and maybe he'll get hurt -- many would say it's inevitable. However, you've got a must-start, top-20 outfielder on your hands, and I wouldn't move him for anything less than that.
H2H Points Trade Values
Roto Trade Values
| Player | Value | Change From Last Week |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna, CF, ATL | 42 | |
| Mookie Betts, RF, LAD | 42 | |
| Juan Soto, LF, WAS | 41 | |
| Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM | 40 | |
| Mike Trout, CF, LAA | 40 | |
| Trea Turner, SS, WAS | 39 | |
| Shane Bieber, SP, CLE | 38 | +1 |
| Jose Ramirez, 3B, CLE | 38 | |
| Gerrit Cole, SP, NYY | 37 | |
| Christian Yelich, LF, MIL | 36 | |
| Trevor Story, SS, COL | 36 | |
| Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL | 34 | |
| Francisco Lindor, SS, NYM | 32 | |
| Bryce Harper, RF, PHI | 31 | |
| Cody Bellinger, CF, LAD | 30 | -1 |
| Manny Machado, 3B, SD | 30 | |
| Trevor Bauer, SP, LAD | 30 | |
| Yu Darvish, SP, SD | 30 | |
| Lucas Giolito, SP, CHW | 29 | |
| Tyler Glasnow, SP, TB | 29 | +5 |
| Aaron Nola, SP, PHI | 28 | |
| Fernando Tatis, SS, SD | 28 | +2 |
| Luis Castillo, SP, CIN | 28 | |
| Max Scherzer, SP, WAS | 28 | |
| Corey Seager, SS, LAD | 28 | |
| Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD | 27 | |
| DJ LeMahieu, 2B, NYY | 27 | |
| Anthony Rendon, 3B, LAA | 26 | -1 |
| Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS | 26 | |
| Kyle Tucker, LF, HOU | 26 | |
| Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU | 25 | |
| Jack Flaherty, SP, STL | 25 | |
| Walker Buehler, SP, LAD | 25 | |
| Adalberto Mondesi, SS, KC | 25 | -4 |
| Bo Bichette, SS, TOR | 25 | |
| Brandon Woodruff, SP, MIL | 25 | |
| Corbin Burnes, SP, MIL | 25 | |
| Whit Merrifield, RF, KC | 24 | |
| Tim Anderson, SS, CHW | 24 | |
| Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL | 24 | |
| Marcell Ozuna, LF, ATL | 24 | |
| Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS | 24 | |
| Luis Robert, CF, CHW | 23 | |
| Starling Marte, CF, MIA | 22 | |
| Kenta Maeda, SP, MIN | 21 | |
| Jose Abreu, 1B, CHW | 21 | |
| George Springer, CF, TOR | 21 | |
| Nolan Arenado, 3B, STL | 21 | |
| Blake Snell, SP, SD | 20 | |
| Aaron Judge, RF, NYY | 20 | |
| Lance Lynn, SP, CHW | 20 | |
| J.T. Realmuto, C, PHI | 20 | |
| Pete Alonso, 1B, NYM | 20 | |
| Ketel Marte, 2B, ARI | 19 | |
| Zac Gallen, SP, ARI | 19 | +8 |
| Vladimir Guerrero, 1B, TOR | 18 | |
| Byron Buxton, CF, MIN | 18 | +8 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, TOR | 18 | |
| Nick Castellanos, RF, CIN | 18 | |
| Austin Meadows, LF, TB | 18 | |
| Gleyber Torres, SS, NYY | 17 | |
| Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS | 17 | |
| Yordan Alvarez, DH, HOU | 17 | |
| Randy Arozarena, LF, TB | 17 | |
| Nelson Cruz, DH, MIN | 18 | +1 |
| Javier Baez, SS, CHC | 17 | |
| Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN | 16 | |
| Josh Hader, RP, MIL | 16 | |
| Liam Hendriks, RP, CHW | 16 | |
| Michael Conforto, RF, NYM | 16 | |
| Matt Olson, 1B, OAK | 16 | |
| Kyle Hendricks, SP, CHC | 16 | |
| J.D. Martinez, DH, BOS | 18 | +2 |
| Zack Greinke, SP, HOU | 16 | |
| Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU | 16 | |
| Charlie Blackmon, RF, COL | 16 | |
| Jose Berrios, SP, MIN | 16 | |
| Zack Wheeler, SP, PHI | 16 | |
| Brandon Lowe, 2B, TB | 15 | |
| Cavan Biggio, 2B, TOR | 15 | |
| Trent Grisham, CF, SD | 15 | |
| Lourdes Gurriel, LF, TOR | 15 | |
| Max Fried, SP, ATL | 15 | |
| Giancarlo Stanton, DH, NYY | 15 | |
| Aroldis Chapman, RP, NYY | 14 | |
| Sandy Alcantara, SP, MIA | 14 | |
| Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, STL | 14 | |
| Teoscar Hernandez, RF, TOR | 14 | |
| Yoan Moncada, 3B, CHW | 14 | |
| Zach Plesac, SP, CLE | 14 | |
| Chris Paddack, SP, SD | 14 | |
| Eddie Rosario, LF, CLE | 14 | |
| Edwin Diaz, RP, NYM | 14 | |
| Keston Hiura, 2B, MIL | 14 | |
| Carlos Correa, SS, HOU | 13 | |
| Charlie Morton, SP, ATL | 13 | |
| Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL | 13 | |
| Max Muncy, 1B, LAD | 13 | |
| Jeff McNeil, LF, NYM | 13 | |
| Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC | 13 | |
| Ian Anderson, SP, ATL | 13 | |
| Ramon Laureano, CF, OAK | 13 | +6 |
| Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK | 12 | |
| Mike Moustakas, 2B, CIN | 12 | |
| Jesus Luzardo, SP, OAK | 12 | |
| Pablo Lopez, SP, MIA | 12 | +3 |
| Joey Gallo, RF, TEX | 12 | |
| Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC | 11 | |
| Dylan Bundy, SP, LAA | 11 | |
| Salvador Perez, C, KC | 11 | |
| Willson Contreras, C, CHC | 11 | |
| Lance McCullers, SP, HOU | 11 | |
| Raisel Iglesias, RP, LAA | 11 | |
| Sonny Gray, SP, CIN | 11 | |
| Luke Voit, 1B, NYY | 11 | |
| Wil Myers, RF, SD | 10 | |
| Brad Hand, RP, WAS | 10 | |
| Dominic Smith, 1B, NYM | 10 | |
| Dinelson Lamet, SP, SD | 10 | |
| Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD | 10 | |
| Alec Bohm, 3B, PHI | 10 | |
| Alex Verdugo, RF, BOS | 10 | |
| Mike Yastrzemski, RF, SF | 9 | |
| Joe Musgrove, SP, SD | 9 | |
| Eric Hosmer, 1B, SD | 9 | |
| Shohei Ohtani, DH, LAA | 9 | -1 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, PIT | 9 | |
| Gio Urshela, 3B, NYY | 9 | |
| Ryan Pressly, RP, HOU | 9 | |
| Josh Bell, 1B, WAS | 9 | |
| Tommy Pham, LF, SD | 9 | |
| Dustin May, SP, LAD | 9 | +2 |
| Michael Brantley, DH, HOU | 9 | |
| Julio Urias, SP, LAD | 9 | |
| Victor Robles, CF, WAS | 9 | |
| Jorge Soler, DH, KC | 8 | -2 |
| Trevor Rosenthal, RP, OAK | 8 | |
| Franmil Reyes, DH, CLE | 8 | |
| Rhys Hoskins, 1B, PHI | 8 | |
| Patrick Corbin, SP, WAS | 8 | |
| Dylan Moore, LF, SEA | 8 | |
| Will Smith, C, LAD | 8 | |
| Ian Happ, CF, CHC | 8 | |
| Aaron Civale, SP, CLE | 8 | |
| Gary Sanchez, C, NYY | 7 | |
| Kevin Gausman, SP, SF | 7 | |
| Frankie Montas, SP, OAK | 7 | |
| Josh Donaldson, 3B, MIN | 7 | |
| Didi Gregorius, SS, PHI | 7 | |
| Trey Mancini, RF, BAL | 7 | |
| Tyler Mahle, SP, CIN | 7 | |
| Carlos Carrasco, SP, NYM | 7 | |
| Marcus Semien, SS, TOR | 7 | |
| Miguel Sano, 1B, MIN | 7 | |
| Dylan Carlson, RF, STL | 7 | |
| Alex Reyes, RP, STL | 7 | +2 |
| Trevor Rogers, SP, MIA | 7 | +6 |
| Travis d'Arnaud, C, ATL | 7 | |
| Yasmani Grandal, C, CHW | 7 | |
| German Marquez, SP, COL | 7 | |
| Tommy Edman, 3B, STL | 6 | |
| Andrew Vaughn, 1B, CHW | 6 | |
| Ryan Mountcastle, LF, BAL | 6 | |
| Framber Valdez, SP, HOU | 6 | |
| Jose Urquidy, SP, HOU | 6 | |
| Craig Kimbrel, RP, CHC | 6 | |
| Matt Barnes, RP, BOS | 6 | |
| Mark Melancon, RP, SD | 6 | |
| Diego Castillo, RP, TB | 6 | |
| Nick Madrigal, 2B, CHW | 6 | |
| James Paxton, SP, SEA | 6 | |
| Max Kepler, RF, MIN | 6 | |
| Kyle Lewis, CF, SEA | 6 | |
| Anthony Santander, RF, BAL | 6 | |
| Will Smith, RP, ATL | 5 | |
| Marcus Stroman, SP, NYM | 5 | |
| Clint Frazier, RF, NYY | 5 | -2 |
| Marco Gonzales, SP, SEA | 5 | -2 |
| Justin Turner, 3B, LAD | 5 | +1 |
| Jameson Taillon, SP, NYY | 5 | |
| C.J. Cron, 1B, COL | 5 | |
| John Means, SP, BAL | 4 | |
| Michael Pineda, SP, MIN | 4 | |
| Mike Soroka, SP, ATL | 4 | -2 |
| Triston McKenzie, SP, CLE | 4 | -1 |
| Jordan Romano, RP, TOR | 4 | |
| Nick Senzel, CF, CIN | 4 | |
| A.J. Pollock, LF, LAD | 4 | |
| Alex Colome, RP, MIN | 4 | |
| Kyle Schwarber, LF, WAS | 4 | |
| Yusei Kikuchi, SP, SEA | 4 | |
| Carlos Rodon, SP, CHW | 4 | |
| Freddy Peralta, RP, MIL | 4 | +3 |
| Jake McGee, RP, SF | 4 | N/R |
| Ryan McMahon, 2B, COL | 4 | N/R |
| Jarred Kelenic, CF, SEA | 4 | |
| Christian Vazquez, C, BOS | 4 | |
| Dallas Keuchel, SP, CHW | 4 | |
| Tony Gonsolin, SP, LAD | 4 | |
| Andrew Heaney, SP, LAA | 4 | |
| Rafael Montero, RP, SEA | 4 | |
| Aaron Hicks, CF, NYY | 3 | |
| James McCann, C, NYM | 3 | |
| Austin Riley, 3B, ATL | 3 | |
| Jorge Polanco, SS, MIN | 3 | |
| Christian Walker, 1B, ARI | 3 | |
| Andrew McCutchen, LF, PHI | 3 | |
| Corey Kluber, SP, NYY | 3 | -2 |
| Mitch Garver, C, MIN | 3 | |
| J.D. Davis, 3B, NYM | 3 | |
| Sean Murphy, C, OAK | 3 | |
| Jean Segura, 2B, PHI | 3 | |
| David Price, SP, LAD | 3 | |
| Kolten Wong, 2B, MIL | 3 | |
| Jurickson Profar, LF, SD | 3 | |
| Emmanuel Clase, RP, CLE | 3 | |
| Jared Walsh, 1B, LAA | 3 | +1 |
| Wander Franco, SS, TB | 3 | |
| Mark Canha, RF, OAK | 3 | |
| Jake Cronenworth, 2B, SD | 3 | |
| Nick Solak, LF, TEX | 3 | |
| Andrew Benintendi, LF, KC | 3 | |
| Gavin Lux, 2B, LAD | 3 | |
| Mitch Haniger, RF, SEA | 2 | |
| Carlos Santana, 1B, KC | 2 | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, BOS | 2 | |
| Brady Singer, SP, KC | 2 | |
| Jordan Montgomery, SP, NYY | 2 | |
| Zach Eflin, SP, PHI | 2 | |
| Elieser Hernandez, SP, MIA | 2 | |
| Eduardo Escobar, 3B, ARI | 2 | |
| Jonathan Villar, 2B, NYM | 2 | |
| Jesse Winker, LF, CIN | 2 | |
| Andres Gimenez, SS, CLE | 2 | -2 |
| Leody Taveras, CF, TEX | 2 | -1 |
| James Karinchak, RP, CLE | 2 | |
| Devin Williams, RP, MIL | 2 | |
| Sixto Sanchez, SP, MIA | 2 | |
| Alex Kirilloff, RF, MIN | 2 | |
| Paul DeJong, SS, STL | 2 | |
| Raimel Tapia, LF, COL | 2 | |
| Brian Anderson, 3B, MIA | 2 | |
| Amir Garrett, RP, CIN | 2 | |
| Jazz Chisholm, 2B, MIA | 2 | |
| Hector Neris, RP, PHI | 2 | |
| Yimi Garcia, RP, MIA | 2 | N/R |
| Akil Baddoo, OF, DET | 2 | N/R |
| Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK | 2 | N/R |
| Griffin Canning, SP, LAA | 2 | |
| Austin Nola, C, SD | 2 | |
| Joakim Soria, RP, ARI | 2 | |
| Ha-seong Kim, SS, SD | 2 | |
| Kole Calhoun, RF, ARI | 2 | |
| Jo Adell, RF, LAA | 2 | |
| Victor Reyes, CF, DET | 2 |
