The final rankings in any given season are pretty hard to predict, but if you had to place a bet, you would probably take Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Clayton Kershaw against the field to finish No. 1 overall.
There is a clear, elite tier in Fantasy baseball this season, with one of those four going No. 1 overall pretty much universally, and for good reason.
However, every season it seems there is a surprise or two at the top of the leader board. Last season, Jake Arrieta and Harper surprisingly stormed the party with historic seasons, as they absolutely blew away expectations. However, with the benefit of hindsight, you could see how their paths to the top spots could come about, even if they were unlikely.
So, the question is, "Who will be this year's Arrieta and Harper?" Which player will come out of the woodwork and stake their claim at the top of the hill? Here are 10 players -- a few obvious calls and a few decidedly not so obvious -- I think have the talent and opportunity to end up there at the end of the season.
Giancarlo Stanton is the most obvious of the crew, coming off a season that had him on pace for nearly 60 homers and 130 RBI. His power is probably unmatched in the majors -- he sported a truly absurd 49.7 percent hard-hit average last season -- but he is also one of the biggest injury risks in the first round. Still, despite the fact that he has missed 190 games over the last four seasons, Stanton has as much upside as anyone. His strikeout rate probably makes it hard for him to ever hit .300, though he did log a .288 average in 2014, so it's not crazy. If he puts it all together and stays healthy, it's not hard to see him challenging for the No. 1 overall spot by season's end. Oh, and one more thing: the Marlins moved the fences in this offseason. Stanton could make everyone who let him fall to No. 7 overall look foolish.
One thing Nolan Arenado has going for him many of the other elite sluggers don't is a strong ability to avoid strikeouts. He actually regressed in that regard in 2015; he went down on strikes in 16.5 percent of his trips to the plate, but that is still an extremely strong rate for someone with the kind of power Arenado has. What you like about low strikeout power hitters is the potential for one of those big BABIP seasons that allows them to hit in the low .300's to go with their huge power and run production. So far, Arenado has now showed much BABIP skill, with a .291 career mark and no single season above .296. That trend mostly held true in the minors, and given his lack of footspeed, that isn't totally surprising. Still, Arenado is the type of player who might need just a little bit of luck to really shoot up the rankings -- a BABIP in the .320 range could put him in the running for a batting title, to go along with his 40-homer power. Playing in Coors Field certainly doesn't hurt his case.
If you're looking for the roadmap to how Mookie Betts challenges for the No. 1 overall spot, just look at Michael Brantley's 2014 season. Brantley technically finished seventh overall -- third among hitters -- but he sported a remarkably similar profile to Betts:
Brantley 2014: 676 PA, .327/.385/.506; 20 HR, 94 R, 97 RBI, 23 SB; 7.7 BB%, 8.3 K%
Betts 2015: 654 PA, .291/.341/.479; 18 HR, 92 R, 77 RBI, 21 SB; 7.0 BB%, 12.5 K%
Betts is extremely strikeout averse, but he didn't quite reach Brantley's level, which makes it hard for him to challenge for a batting title as Brantley did. Of course, that assumes Bets won't continue to improve his skill set, which seems unlikely for the preternaturally talented 23-year-old. If he can continue to trim from his strikeout rate, there's plenty of room to grow into a .300-plus hitter, and he almost certainly has more power potential than Brantley, being more flyball prone. Betts clubbed 18 homers last season, and he did that with just 8.2 percent of his flyballs going over the fence. As he continues to fill out, Betts' raw power should increase, possibly putting a 30-30 season in play. Without Springer's contact concerns. That's how high Betts' ceiling is.
You won't find many players with as many tools as George Springer. He has mammoth raw power, and he proved he could leverage that into huge in-game production as a rookie, clubbing 20 homers in 78 games. He also brings 30-steal potential to the table, having nabbed 16 in 102 games last season and 37 in 149 games in the minors in 2012 and 45 in 135 games in 2013. It's fair to say he disappointed in 2015, though a fractured wrist carries much of the blame for his disappointing power production in the second half of the season. Strikeouts will always be a concern, but if he can manage to keep his rate at one in every four plate appearances like last season, while finding the power stroke that put him on a 40-homer pace as a rookie, Springer could emerge as the game's elite power-speed threat now that Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen aren't swiping many bases.
Corey Kluber was one of the best pitchers in baseball two years ago, when he sported a 2.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He was nearly as good in 2015, when his WHIP actually dipped to 1.05, but his ERA ballooned to 3.49 with the help of a subpart Indians' defense. Kluber has turned into one of the game's great strikeout artists, with 514 K's since the start of the 2014 season. He pairs that with elite control and solid homer prevention abilities, a combination that gives him the third-best FIP in baseball since the start of 2014. Kluber lags behind the Jake Arrieta-Clayton Kershaw class, and in many ways looks like a slightly lesser version of Chris Sale. However, if the Indians' defense can build on its second-half improvements, Kluber has every tool he needs to make a run at the No. 1 spot.
If you want a good example of why you might want to still believe in Stephen Strasburg, you don't have to look very far. The situation is different for a couple of reasons, but Strasburg's teammate Bryce Harper had plenty of doubters and detractors just a year ago; look how that turned out. Like Harper, Strasburg entered the majors with an insane amount of hype, and simply All-Star level production wasn't enough to keep the unwashed, egg-avatar sporting masses from shouting "Bust" every time his name comes up. Of course, Strasburg is already quite a bit more experienced and older than Harper, so the comparison isn't perfect, but there are plenty of reasons to remain excited about Strasburg nonetheless. He led the NL in strikeouts in 2014, and actually managed to improve his strikeout rate in 2015 -- without increasing his walk rate. Strasburg's overall numbers last season make No. 1 overall talk seem laughable, however once he got healthy, he was practically Kershaw-esque: 92 strikeouts to just eight walks, with a 1.90 ERA and 0.734 WHIP. Other younger pitchers have passed him in our collective hearts, but Strasburg still has that mid-90's fastball and bugs bunny curveball that first caught our fancy. He could be Jose Fernandez without the innings limit.
In a rotation that features Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, it's tough to stand out, but Noah Syndergaard just might end up the best of the bunch before long. As a 22-year-old, Syndergaard combined massive swing-and-miss stuff with pinpoint control, finishing his rookie season with 10.0 K/9 and just 1.9 BB/9. If not for some struggles keeping the ball in the yard (1.14 HR/9), Syndergaard would have finished with an even better ERA than the 3.24 mark he sported in 150 innings. The fact that he did that as a rookie should give you all kinds of optimism. He combines an above-average groundball rate with elite control and strikeout rate, the kind of combination that tends to lead to a mantle full of Cy Young awards, especially when you bring them to the table riding high-90's heat. Syndergaard might not just be the best pitcher in New York next season; he could be competing for the top spot in baseball.
If the same issues plague every pitcher on a team, can we really chalk them up to luck? That is the question we need to figure out about the Indians, who have two potential contenders for the top of the pitching leaderboard. Corey Kluber is the more reasonable option, given his workload and track record, but it isn't crazy to suggest Carlos Carrasco might have more upside of the two. He sported one of the best strikeout rates in baseball last season at 10.58, and combined that with just 2.11 walks per nine and a strong 51.2 percent groundball rate. And yet, somehow, those numbers added up to just a 3.63 ERA, nearly a full run higher than his FIP. The biggest issue came at home, where Carrasco allowed a .356 BABIP and 17.6 percent HR/FB rate; outrageous numbers for a pretty generous home park. He is another pitcher who showed what he could do in the second half of the season, posting a 2.99 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 75 1/3 innings after the All-Star break. If the Indians' staff-wide BABIP and homer issues were just a fluke, Carrasco could have an Arrieta-esque breakout season. OK, maybe not that good; but 2014 Kluber is in play.
Miguel Sano's case isn't that much different from Stanton's. Sano doesn't have the long track record of nagging injuries Stanton does, but it might be easy to forget he did have Tommy John surgery in the minors, a major red flag. Another red flag is his propensity to strike out; he fanned 119 times in just 80 games as a rookie. And, like Stanton, he has the kind of off-the-charts power that could elevate him to the No. 1 spot if everything goes right. As a 22-year-old with no exposure to Triple-A and coming off an entire missed season in 2014, Sano clubbed 18 homers and sported a .530 slugging percentage in his first taste of the majors. That's serious hitting ability, and his 25.9 percent strikeout rate in the minors indicate he could have some room for improvement in his contact rate. If he can improve that just a bit, Sano could evolve into a Stanton-esque hitter. There aren't many players with that kind of upside.
If I had to make one pick for this year's Harper, Yasiel Puig is the most obvious choice. Like Harper, Puig came into the league with massive hype, and like Harper, has caught more than his share of criticism for his failure to live up to that hype. It says a lot about how much we expect from Puig that his career line -- .294/.371/.487 -- constitutes disappointment, but that talent is still there. A hamstring injury kept Puig from taking off last season, and his numbers ultimately declined in just about every meaningful respect. He has a number of rough edges to his game, and still needs to figure out how to turn his impressive raw power and speed tools into home runs and stolen base production. Puig has a tendency to be a wild hacker at the plate and a mistake-prone baserunner, and there is a fine line between aggression and reckless. However, Puig is one of those rare players who could legitimately combine a .300/.400/.500 triple-slash line with 30 homers and 20 steals -- a true five-category threat. A lot of people piled on Puig this offseason, but that negativity can't hide the fact that Puig is one of the most talented players in the game. If he puts it all together, you're getting the best value in baseball at his draft position.
