In Back to the Future Part II, an old Biff Tannen travels to the past to deliver a copy of the Grays Sports Almanac to himself, in order to help him win a bunch of money gambling and live a more comfortable life.
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Player | % increase | |
1. | Ernesto Frieri, RP, Angels | 30 |
2. | Roy Oswalt, SP, Rangers | 28 |
3. | A.J. Ellis, C, Dodgers | 25 |
4. | Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox | 21 |
5. | Homer Bailey, SP, Reds | 20 |
6. | Dayan Viciedo, OF, White Sox | 19 |
7. | Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals | 17 |
8. | Carlos Quentin, OF, Padres | 15 |
9. | Andy Pettitte, SP, Yankees | 14 |
10. | Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox | 14 |
We often talk about predicting the future in Fantasy, but here's a harsh fact: even if we knew the results of every baseball game this season, it still might be tough to take that information and use it to win a league.
Say, for instance, that we discover Tom Wilhelmsen manages 20 saves on the season. Unless we know which game he started getting the saves, the information could turn out to be useless. Should we start him every game? Should we have picked him up as a Draft Day guess and kept him activated? Wilhelmsen, it might turn out, went nutty in August and set a record in 2012 for saves in a month (20). But if all we knew was that he gets those 20 saves -- and not when -- it could do more harm than good having him sit in our lineups every day.
So what's the point of this sci-fi digression? That situational and split stats matter, to a degree. Hidden beneath 162 games of data are little quirks that can help us divine some Fantasy knowledge. For a pitcher like Ervin Santana, who has massive home/road splits buried beneath his overall numbers, knowing where the good numbers came from could be a tremendous boost for a Fantasy owner, and could help explain why some players are seeing jumps in ownership at otherwise random-looking times during the season.
On to the Roster Trends!
Most Added Highlights
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Player | % owned | |
1. | Jordan Schafer, OF, Astros | 49 |
2. | Brian Fuentes, RP, Athletics | 48 |
3. | A.J. Burnett, SP, Pirates | 46 |
4. | Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks | 41 |
5. | Casey Janssen, RP, Blue Jays | 36 |
Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox
Jump in ownership: 20
percent (from 45 percent to 65)
Reason for the jump: Doubront
is 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA through 10 games and is in the midst of a
two-start week.
Why you should join the crowd: Besides getting
off to a spectacular start in 2012, Doubront has relief pitcher
eligibility in most CBSSports.com formats, allowing owners in H2H points
leagues to rack up starting pitcher value from a RP slot. For those
owners looking at Doubront as a starter, he's been surprisingly
effective so far this year. He has also managed to throw a little over
one strikeout per inning.
Devil's Advocate: Doubront's minor
league numbers were good, but they didn't indicate anything that would
translate to wild success in the majors. Additionally, his 1.36 WHIP
suggests that his ERA may currently be a bit low, meaning he could be
due for a correction. On top of all that, the Red Sox have Daisuke Matsuzaka and Andrew Bailey
coming back from injury soon, which could create a crunch of both a
direct (Matsuzaka will require a spot) and indirect (Bailey could
push Alfredo Aceves to the rotation,
sending Doubront to long relief) nature.
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Royals
Jump in ownership: 14
percent (from 60 percent to 74)
Reason for the jump: Francoeur
has four multi-hit games in his last six.
Why you should join the
crowd: Blink and you missed Francoeur's batting average rise from
.235 (on May 19) to .282 (on the 28th). Of his five home runs on the
season, four have come in the last seven games. He even picked up his
first steal of the season against the Orioles. Francoeur put up a 20-20
campaign in 2011 and has as many as 29 home runs in a single season.
Devil's
Advocate: Those 22 bases he stole last year marked the first time in
Francoeur's career that he produced double-digits in the category. And
while he has a lifetime batting average of .271, that number has dipped
as low as .239 during his career. He's streaky and can be one of the
more frustrating players in Fantasy, rotating from extremely cold to
extremely hot without warning. So beware. His season may look great in
September, but there may be plenty of peaks and valleys along the way.
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Player | decrease in start % | |
1. | Henry Rodriguez, RP, Nationals | 31 |
2. | Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins | 25 |
3. | Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Yankees | 24 |
4. | Brandon League, RP, Mariners | 24 |
5. | Edinson Volquez, SP, Padres | 23 |
Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
Jump in ownership:
15 percent (from 28 percent to 43)
Reason for the jump: Beckham
entered May with a .153 average; as of Tuesday, it sat at .224.
Why
you should join the crowd: Beckham, a former first-round pick, has
turned his season around in the month of May. He's hit .264, with five
home runs and 14 RBI. His OPS jumped .300 points over April, going from
.434 to .763. Over the last 14 days, Beckham ranks as the seventh-best
second baseman in Fantasy.
Devil's Advocate: Before the recent
hot streak, Beckham was experiencing a three-year slide in nearly every
offensive category (from 2009 to 2011). His average went from .270 to
.252 to .230; His RBI, doubles, OPS, and walk totals all dropped over
the three-season span while his at-bats increased. In fact, if the
season ended today, his OPS would be only slightly higher than it was
last year and his average would be the lowest of his four-season career.
Roy Oswalt, SP, Rangers
Jump in ownership: 10
percent and rising (from 29 percent to 39)
Reason for the jump:
Oswalt has signed with the Rangers.
Why you should join the crowd:
Oswalt isn't really a big mystery. Over 2,154 innings pitched, he has a
career 3.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He's a three-time All-Star who has
finished in the top five for Cy Young voting on five separate occasions.
The only mystery right now is how long it will take him to get in to
playing shape (guessing it will be three or four weeks).
Devil's
Advocate: Oswalt's career splits at Rangers Ballpark: 2-5, 4.78 EA
and 1.44 WHIP in eight starts. Granted, that's playing against
the Rangers, not playing with them, but when you run into a pitcher of
Oswalt's caliber, you have to look somewhere for the downside to it all.
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Player | % owned | |
1. | Delmon Young, OF, Tigers | 53 |
2. | Phil Hughes, SP, Yankees | 54 |
3. | Russell Martin, C, Yankees | 56 |
4. | Jake Westbrook, SP, Cardinals | 58 |
5. | Trevor Bauer, SP, Diamondbacks | 60 |
Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, Mariners
Jump in ownership:
Nine percent (from seven percent to 16)
Reason for the jump:
Wilhelmsen looks to be the favorite for saves in Seattle with Brandon League being demoted to setup duty.
Why you should join
the crowd: Besides being an awesome story -- Wilhelmsen was out of
baseball for six years, backpacking around the world and serving as a
bartender in Arizona -- he does look like the early favorite to get
saves in League's absence. So far this season, he has 30 strikeouts in
24 1/3 innings pitched.
Devil's Advocate: Wilhelmsen also has
a 4.44 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Furthermore, League hit a bit of a bump last
year and responded by not allowing a run from May 17 to July 5. So while
he has a great story (the movie will end with Wilhelmsen pitching in the
ALCS with a full count in the bottom of the ninth to Daniel Nava), it's not the most ideal of scenarios: Wilhelmsen has
some pretty high ratios, manager Eric Wedge indicated that he would let
matchups dictate who comes in for saves, and League could take a week
off and come right back into his closer role.
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .