We're just over two weeks into the NBA season, and there have been plenty of surprises. Returning first-round value are most of the usual suspects, but there are some shocking names as well, including Miles Bridges and Al Horford. There have also been some late-round selections and undrafted players making waves, like De'Anthony Melton and Franz Wagner.
Who's been booming early in the year?
Ja Morant, Grizzlies
It's hard to find someone pessimistic about Morant, but even the biggest optimists weren't predicting this. Morant is ranked seventh in Fantasy behind gaudy two-way numbers – the 1.7 steals per game being the most surprising given that he was under a steal per game in his first two seasons. Aside from that, the point guard is averaging 28.3 points, 7.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds while shooting 52/39/83 – every number representing a would-be career high. I'm expecting his steals and percentages to regress, but he should still finish above his ADP (21).
Miles Bridges, Hornets
Bridges was an afterthought in most drafts. His ADP before the season was 115. He turned down a contract extension from the organization in the offseason to bet on himself. He's clearly en route to a much bigger payday. The 23-year-old forward is in the midst of a career year. In 35.5 minutes per game, Bridges is averaging 23.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.7 combined steals-plus-blocks.
The main factor in his breakout is increased usage, with Bridges boasting a 25.2 percent usage rate (higher than Darius Garland) compared to a previous career high of 20.0 percent, and he's creating more of his own shots than ever. Chances are, his steal rate will decrease, but it won't regress enough for him not to be one of the steals of this year's Fantasy drafts.
Al Horford, Celtics
Along with Bridges, Horford is returning first-round value early into the season after being drafted outside the top 100. After two seasons of bad fits in Philadelphia and Oklahoma City, the veteran big has found a more comfortable role back in Boston. His rebounding (10.4), steals (1.2) and blocks (3.2) would all be career highs if sustained for the whole season, and he's currently leading the NBA in blocks per game. He's also been spending more time around the basket on offense, leading to an increased field-goal percentage (46.7%) and free-throw rate (2.2 FTA) compared to the past two seasons. The blocks will subside, but Horford should return his best Fantasy season since leaving Boston in 2019.
Desmond Bane and De'Anthony Melton, Grizzlies
Bane and Melton have thrived in the absence of Dillon Brooks, who is recovering from a broken left hand. It seems like Brooks will return sometime in November but, until then, the pair should continue seeing increased minutes and touches. Bane is splashing 3.3 3s per game, fueling 17.7 points per game to go along with 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.0 steals. Melton is making 2.4 3s per game to fuel 13.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.4 combined steals-plus-blocks. Once Brooks comes back, things might get complicated, and it seems most likely Melton sees a reduction in minutes and usage given his positional overlap with Ja Morant.
Chris Duarte, Pacers
Duarte was the hottest waiver wire pickup after Week 1, as the rookie was given a bigger role than expected and stepped up. In 34.9 minutes, he's averaging 17.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists while notably hitting 2.8 3s at a 42.3 percent clip. While Duarte should be 12-team relevant for the whole season, his role might get squeezed by the recent return of Caris LeVert, especially if Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holiday can also stay healthy. A small usage decrease has already started, with Duarte playing 30.3 minutes and taking 11.0 shots over the past two games with LeVert available. Prior to LeVert's return, he was playing 36.5 minutes and taking 17.0 shots.
Carmelo Anthony, Lakers
It's this simple: Melo is scorching hot from 3. He's making 3.4 triples per game at 52.9 percent. It's also surprising that he's seeing 27.3 minutes per game given his positional overlap with not only LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but plenty of other bench players. Still, what choice does coach Frank Vogel have if Melo is going to be this kind of knock-down 3-point shooter alongside LeBron? Expect the veteran's 3-point percentage and minutes to dip due to regression and the Lakers getting healthier, but he's still a hold or sell-high in 12-team leagues.
Alex Caruso, Bulls
Caruso is seeing the biggest role of his career and has been monstrous on the defensive end, where he's been regarded as a specialist. He's averaging 2.6 steals and 0.6 blocks in 27.3 minutes per game. While his usage rate is relatively low, he's still providing 1.0 3-pointers per game and is dishing 3.9 assists. He's worth a roster spot for the steals alone, even if they begin to regress a bit.
Franz Wagner, Cole Anthony and Mo Bamba, Magic
Wagner has looked surprisingly good for the rebuilding Magic. He's scoring 15.6 points while shooting 50.5 percent from the field and 46.3 percent from distance. He's also providing decent ancillary stats with 3.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.7 combined steals-plus-blocks. And, he's keeping his turnovers low (1.0). Wagner is a great glue guy for Orlando right now, and that shouldn't change anytime soon. Just don't expect him to continue shooting quite this hot.
Anthony and Bamba both showed flashes last season, but now they're getting the minutes and trust of the organization to go out and demonstrate their potential. Anthony is averaging 19.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists. Last season, he proved to be a shockingly-good rebounder for his size, so don't expect that number to crash hard. Bamba has always been a per-minute monster. Now that he's getting 32.2 minutes, he's averaging 12.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.1 blocks.
Ricky Rubio, Cavaliers
Unexpectedly, Rubio is finding 27.8 minutes per game as a reserve in Cleveland. While his shot has never really improved since he joined the league, Rubio's passing ability and defense remain great for Fantasy. He's handing out 6.8 dimes per game and grabbing 1.4 steals – numbers consistent with his career averages. His success seems sustainable, and the veteran is worth a roster spot even in 10-team leagues.
Montrezl Harrell, Wizards
After an irrelevant 2020-21 season with the Lakers, Harrell was shipped off to the Wizards, where he's been allowed to do what he does best – grab offensive rebounds and finish with dunks around the basket. Recently, he's gotten a bump due to Daniel Gafford dealing with an injury, but Harrell was already getting more minutes than Gafford. In 31.7 minutes per game, Harrell is averaging 18.4 points on 59.7 percent shooting, 9.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.0 blocks.
Robert Williams, Celtics
Williams' ADP was all over the place between different websites and formats, but regardless of where he was drafted, he's probably returning positive value for whoever selected him. The big man is seeing 32.0 minutes per game and averaging 9.7 points on 68.6 percent shooting, 8.5 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, 1.7 assists and 1.0 steals. Those numbers are consistent with his per-minute career averages, and he actually has room to improve as a rebounder and passer, though it'll be tougher this season with Al Horford around.
Harrison Barnes, Kings
Who is this person, and what have they done with the real Harrison Barnes? He had a mini-revival last season, and now the 29-year-old is in the midst of a full late-career breakout. Barnes is the 28th-best player in Fantasy on semi-sustainable shooting percentages (48.6 FG%, 44.9 3P%). Coach Luke Walton is giving him the 37-minute-per-game Tom Thibodeau treatment, and Barnes is responding with 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists. He's boasting his highest usage rate since the Mavericks tried to turn him into a mid-post star from the 1980s (still completely baffling). I am alarmed to announce that I believe this is mostly real and he's a must hold in all formats.
