2013 Draft Prep: Latest draft trends
Which players are trending up and down in the minds of Fantasy owners as we hit the second weekend of the preseason? Our Jamey Eisenberg examines the latest draft averages.
We're getting closer to when the majority of drafts happen for Fantasy owners, but drafts are going on all the time at this point in August. And the Average Draft Position data is starting to change.
There are subtle movements from a week ago like Trent Richardson dropping two spots to No. 9 overall. And some guys are moving dramatically like Chris Givens, who has jumped up 18 spots to No. 136 from our first look at ADP. You can see the trends in the data showing all the movement up and down for each player.
Studying those trends should give you an indication that those players might be worth looking into. Maybe they had a big preseason performance that you missed. Or maybe there's an injury or position battle going on you should monitor prior to your draft.
The ADP is a great tool to help you prepare, and we're giving you a snapshot into some players rising and falling heading into the second weekend of preseason action. More will change after this week, so stay on top of the ADP data to help you on your Draft Day.
The first round looks like this ...
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
2. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
3. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
4. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
5. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
6. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
7. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
8. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
9. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns
10. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
11. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
12. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
How you start your team in the first round will dictate the rest of your roster, and there aren't many surprises with the first 10 picks. Calvin Johnson will likely be drafted higher in point-per-reception leagues, and he moved up one spot from last week.
Richardson dropped two spots because he has missed practice time as a precaution for his injured shin, but he played in the second preseason game Thursday against Detroit and ran well with six carries for 33 yards. He will fluctuate from No. 7 to No. 10 over the next few weeks.
Rice moved past Richardson, but based on his performance Thursday against the Falcons (eight carries for 10 yards and two catches for 7 yards), he could slide down again. And we'd expect McCoy to rise based on his outing Thursday with eight carries for 47 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 16 yards.
Rodgers has also moved into the Top 12, replacing Alfred Morris, who dropped to No. 13. We don't recommend drafting Rodgers or Brees in the first round, but Fantasy owners who love their quarterbacks find it hard to resist those two standout passers.
Robert Griffin III moving up: We're going to focus on guys who have moved up or down at least five spots in the previous week, but subtle changes are worth looking into as well. For example, Tom Brady has moved into the third round, and he's now being drafted ahead of Cam Newton as the No. 4 quarterback behind Brees, Rodgers and Peyton Manning.
Fantasy owners were originally concerned with Brady after losing his Top 4 targets from last year with Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and Danny Woodhead gone, but a solid preseason opener against the Eagles apparently put all those doubts to rest. We'd still take Newton and even Matt Ryan ahead of Brady, but he's still an elite Fantasy option even with a revamped receiving corps.
Other quarterbacks on the rise include Robert Griffin III (up nine spots to No. 56 overall), Colin Kaepernick (up six spots to No. 60), Andy Dalton (up seven spots to No. 112), Sam Bradford (up five spots to No. 131) and Carson Palmer (up five spots to No. 150). Of these guys, Griffin might continue to improve his ADP as reports of his health remain positive.
Dalton, Bradford and Palmer remain backups to covet, and they should be among the first No. 2 quarterbacks off the board with late-round picks. As for Kaepernick, I'm not buying his ADP at the end of Round 5, and I'd rather draft Tony Romo (No. 65 overall).
Tannehill came into training camp as a sleeper with the additions of Mike Wallace, Dustin Keller and Brandon Gibson, but he's been uninspiring to date. And Rivers lost his best receiver in Danario Alexander (ACL) and is showing more flaws than upside.
Running back breakdown
Richardson running in right direction: While Trent Richardson is falling in the first round, Daryl Richardson is among the biggest running back risers in ADP. The St. Louis Richardson's ADP has improved seven spots to No. 99.
He will continue to rise as he separates himself from Zac Stacy and Isaiah Pead as the starter in St. Louis, and we consider him a No. 3 Fantasy running back in all formats. Some other running backs on the rise include Giovani Bernard (up five spots to No. 66), DeAngelo Williams (up five spots to No. 104), Bilal Powell (up 10 spots to No. 191) and Knile Davis (up 11 spots to No. 196).
Bernard has the chance to be a Top 20 running back this season (he's currently being drafted as the No. 28 running back), and his ADP should continue to rise. Williams (Jonathan Stewart), Powell (Chris Ivory) and Davis (Jamaal Charles) are all moving up as a result of injuries to the initial starters on the depth chart. Williams should open the season as the starter in Carolina, but Ivory and Charles should be fine, leaving Powell and Davis as handcuff options.
Giants starting to shrink: Two Giants are among the prominent running backs on the decline in David Wilson (down five spots to No. 39) and Andre Brown (down five spots to No. 81). The thought of them splitting carries must have Fantasy owners concerned, which is a mistake.
If Wilson is there in Round 4 then consider it a steal. And Brown could be even better value in Round 7. Both have the chance to be quality Fantasy options this season.
Other prominent running backs slipping in ADP include Ivory (down nine spots to No. 58), Eddie Lacy (down five spots to No. 64), Ahmad Bradshaw (down five spots to No. 68), Rashard Mendenhall (down 10 spots to No. 71), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (down six spots to No. 87). Stewart (down eight spots to No. 108), Stacy (down 11 spots to No. 109), Bernard Pierce (down five spots to No. 117), Bryce Brown (down five spots to No. 118), Fred Jackson (down six spots to No. 120), Danny Woodhead (down five spots to No. 128), Johnathan Franklin (down six spots to No. 134) and Mikel Leshoure (down 14 spots to No. 138).
Ivory, Lacy, Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Stewart, Pierce, Brown and Woodhead have battled injuries, which have owners concerned. Brown is also competing with Chris Polk for the No. 2 job behind McCoy, and Green-Ellis, Stacy, Jackson, Franklin and Leshoure have concerns about their role this season.
Of these running backs, I'd be happy drafting Ivory, Lacy and Mendenhall in Round 6, and Pierce and Brown in Round 10. I think those are quality investments, and if they continue to fall that will be even better, assuming all of them are healthy.
Wide receiver breakdown
Givens gaining on pack: Four receivers have seen a dramatic rise in their ADP from last week: Golden Tate (up 11 spots to No. 115), Chris Givens, Vincent Brown (up 14 spots to No. 149) and Cordarrelle Patterson (up 15 spots to No. 161). All have sleeper potential this year and could be the No. 1 receiver on their respective teams.
Tate, Givens and Brown make for excellent No. 4 receivers, and Patterson is a definite late-round flier in standard leagues. I like Givens the best of this group.
Some other receivers with their ADP on the rise include Pierre Garcon (up nine spots to No. 55), Steve Smith (up five spots to No. 63), DeSean Jackson (up seven spots to No. 79), DeAndre Hopkins (up seven spots to No. 124) and Malcom Floyd (up nine spots to No. 165). Floyd will likely start to decline after he suffered a knee injury in practice this week.
Jackson and Hopkins might present the best value from this group. Jackson's value improved when Jeremy Maclin (ACL) went down, and he could be an excellent No. 3 receiver in Round 7. And Hopkins is a great sleeper in Round 11 as the No. 2 receiver for the Texans opposite Andre Johnson. There should be a lot of single coverage for him all year.
Injury helping Nelson's value: Jordy Nelson is among the more prominent receivers with their ADP on the decline, and it's because his recent knee surgery could keep him out for the start of the season. He's dropped nine spots to No. 59.
That actually could work out in your favor if he continues to slip. Getting Nelson in Round 6 or 7 could be a tremendous bargain, especially if he ends up being ready for Week 1. When healthy, he's the second-best Packers receiver behind Randall Cobb.
Other receivers with their ADP on the decline include Josh Gordon (down five spots to No. 116), Denarius Moore (down five spots to No. 126), Justin Blackmon (down six spots to No. 145), Sidney Rice (down eight spots to No. 146) and Ryan Broyles (down six spots to No. 153).
I'm not sure why Gordon and Broyles are falling, but I like their value in Round 10 and 13, respectively. I'd also gamble on Blackmon in Round 13 even though he's suspended for the first four games.
Tight end breakdown
Finley flying up draft boards: I'm excited to see Jermichael Finley among the tight ends on the rise. He is up 13 spots to No. 91.
I consider Finley a sleeper, and I expect him to improve dramatically on last year's No. 17 finish in standard leagues. Draft him with confidence in Round 8.
Other tight ends with their ADP on the rise include Tyler Eifert (up eight spots to No. 162) and Coby Fleener (up 24 spots to No. 179). Both are quality sleepers, especially Fleener with Dwayne Allen (foot) banged up.
Allen is among the two tight ends on the decline with Jermaine Gresham. Allen is down nine spots to No. 190, and Gresham is down five spots to No. 176. These two moves coincide with Eifert and Fleener getting more attention as better Fantasy options this year.
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