2014 Draft Prep: Breakouts, 2.0
Who is our Dave Richard targeting in his Fantasy drafts at this late stage of the preseason? He shares his final list of breakout candidates for 2014.
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Apologies to Khiry Robinson and Tavon Austin, breakout candidates chewed up and spit out by the preseason machine. They've been replaced by Shane Vereen and Kelvin Benjamin, both of whom not only have had a stellar preseason, but also have potential for big, fat stats.
That's what we live for -- fat stats.
Remember that breakout players aren't just guys you'll look at in the first five rounds of your draft. Mid- and late-round picks also qualify, many of which are listed below. Arming yourself with some of these names will ease your concerns when you get toward the back half of your draft and have no idea who to pick. These players aren't just names to know, they are potential starters you could lean on from week to week. If you had a list like that last year with Josh Gordon, Keenan Allen and Giovani Bernard on it, you would have probably made a run at a title in your league.
Even though we've updated our breakouts, many still remain from our first version, complete with analysis that still applies even though it was written in late July. Consider the original breakout list a supplement to this list.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers
I'm sticking with Kaepernick despite the weak preseason start. The
biggest problem with the Niners isn't him -- it's the O-line. Frankly,
the coaching staff is too savvy to not work around the line if they
can't fix it outright. It's been a staple of their team since Jim
Harbaugh took over and it seems odd to think that all of a sudden it
will be a weakness. When Kaepernick wasn't on his back this preseason,
he was on point with most of his passes. It's clear from watching
their formations and reviewing their offseason moves that the passing
game is going to be a big point of emphasis for them. I'm counting on a
career-high in passing yards and total touchdowns from Kaepernick in
I'd take him ahead of: Jay Cutler, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton
Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
Appendectomy what? Soon after Ball had emergency surgery he was back in
Denver's preseason games. And they need him -- backup Ronnie Hillman had two starts to make a bid for touches and couldn't
come up with a big game. Maybe if you're a fan of Hillman's you'll argue
that he ran into tough defenses in Seattle and San Francisco, but the
bottom line is that Hillman did zilch to suggest he could be the
Broncos' lead tailback. So, Ball is back in the big boy spot next to Peyton Manning by default. That's a good spot to be in -- running
backs have accumulated at least 12 touchdowns and over 1,800 total yards
next to Peyton in each of his last five full seasons. Just ask Knowshon Moreno how it worked out for him working with Manning. Ball's
in line for a slew of stats as defenses shy away from slowing him down
since it'll mean Manning throwing over the top to any one of his
I'd still take him ahead of: Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell
Toby Gerhart, RB, Jaguars
It's been a rough start for Gerhart as he's totaled 51 yards on 16
carries and an 8-yard catch through two preseason games, but he's a guy
worth keeping faith in. Gerhart is easily Jacksonville's top back after
auditions for Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson went nowhere. It might not be pretty -- we could see a
lot of 17-carry, 60-yard days in our future -- but he should do enough
catching passes and working the goal line to make up for it. I've
research into Gerhart previously and still view him as a
trustworthy No. 2 Fantasy running back.
I'd still gladly take him ahead of: C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson
Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants
So far this preseason the only bright spot for the Giants offense has
been the run game. That could mean the team leans on its backs in the
early going. When we called Jennings a breakout before, David Wilson was still in the picture for the ground game. Wilson's
football career is over and his track career is beginning, eliminating
one player from the workload. Andre Williams
is a threat to steal touchdowns from Jennings, but it remains to be seen
just how many overall touches he'll take away. Both Giants running backs
are breakout candidates, but Jennings is the one you'll consider first
in drafts. In PPR leagues he's safer as a No. 2 Fantasy rusher, but he
can fill that role if you're needy for help in standard leagues.
I'd still take him ahead of: Ben Tate, Maurice Jones-Drew, Trent Richardson
Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots
Stevan Ridley might have looked like the best rushing option
for the Patriots this preseason, but his track record of fumbles has
either caught up to him or is about to catch up to him. In New England's
third preseason game we noted Ridley on the field for 11 snaps with the
starters while Vereen had 30. Vereen also won't tip the Patriots' game
plan from play to play to opponents like Ridley has. So even though
Vereen has a paltry 3.6 rushing average this preseason (Ridley has 3.9
on a dozen more carries) he's still the Patriots' best running back.
Further evidence could be found in his receiving totals this preseason:
seven catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns, both coming against the
Panthers in their third exhibition game. Through three seasons, Vereen
has 1,092 total yards and nine touchdowns. We think he'll combine for
more than 1,092 yards in this upcoming season while delivering close to
nine scores, if not nine on the button. Health is an issue -- he's
played in just 21 games over the last two seasons -- but his potential
to be a monster in the Patriots backfield cannot be ignored. He's on my
breakout list for the second year in a row.
I'd take him ahead of: Lions running backs, Bills running backs, Ravens running backs
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
You're going to come to a point late in your draft where you're looking
for low-risk breakout candidates. Baldwin's the one I turn to. When
we last wrote about Baldwin, Sidney Rice was still on the
active roster. He's since retired. Percy Harvin
is still on the active roster and healthy, which is good for Baldwin
since he'll command coverage and leave Baldwin in favorable situations.
He caught over 70 pct. of his targets last season and postseason and
looked just as good if not better than Golden Tate in 2013. If he can grab 70 of 100-to-110 targets he could
be in line for a 1,000-yard season (his track record suggests he can do
I'd take him ahead of: Anquan Boldin, Riley Cooper, Kenny Stills
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers
Cam Newton could be in for a rough season, but we've seen
quality receivers put up big numbers without their quarterback doing the
same. One such guy is Steve Smith, who
for years put up nice numbers with the likes of Jake Delhomme as his quarterback. Smith totaled over 1,100 yards
from Newton in Cam's first two seasons as a result of a lot of targets
and his game-breaking skills at the time. We can already tell that
Benjamin is in line to lead the Panthers in targets this season --
everyone else in the Carolina offense is just pedestrian. And we can
tell that Benjamin has taken well to the pro game and has shown off
quite a catching radius to go with his long-stride running style and
insane height (he's 6-foot-5). Because of the improvements we've seen
from him along with Newton leaning on him, he's become my favorite
rookie receiver. Don't rule out a 1,000-yard season from him.
I'd take him ahead of: Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace and any rookie receiver.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings
The more we watch him, the more we fall in love. Patterson's incredible
size/speed skill set and solid finish to last season combined with Norv
Turner's arrival to blend some spice into what was a vanilla Vikings
offense makes the second-year receiver a legit threat to topple 1,200
total yards and seven touchdowns. The Vikings will start the year with Matt Cassel under center and he seems to have a good connection with
Patterson, as evidenced by their 53-yard touchdown at Kansas City in the
third week of preseason action. This one's a no-brainer -- Patterson
should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy receiver with No. 1 potential,
which will make him a guy to target on Draft Day.
I'd take him ahead of: Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd, Roddy White
Rueben Randle, WR, Giants
With only three catches this preseason, Randle leads all starting Giants
wideouts in yards per catch (17.7) and touchdowns (one). Of course, that
shouldn't be the reason to take Randle. This is: He remains a playmaker
in the Giants offense, one that should round into form soon after the
first couple of games. The new scheme will yield easier routes to run
and passes to catch, making him more efficient while also giving him a
shot at breaking off long gains for touchdowns, which he did a decent
amount of in 2013. Victor Cruz might be
the top banana and will draw a lot of attention, opening up
opportunities for Randle.
I'd take him ahead of: Brandin Cooks, Jeremy Maclin, Reggie Wayne
Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys
This is a pretty simple equation: Bad Cowboys defense plus good Cowboys
offense equals a lot of points per week. And if Dallas is going to
average, say, 27.4 points per game like they did last year, then getting
pieces of the offense is a good idea. Williams is quite affordable in
drafts with a pick around 90th overall and should be able to do better
than the 736 yards and five touchdowns he had as a rookie. He's third
Fantasy receiver material with potential to be a Top 20 pass catcher.
I'd still take him ahead of: Eric Decker, Kendall Wright, Percy Harvin
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles
Even with the Eagles offense showing some warts this preseason, there's
a ton to like about Ertz. He's big, strong, fast and has some nice mitts
to reel in passes from Nick Foles, whom
he's spent time with this offseason developing chemistry. Through three
preseason games, Ertz is second on the team in receiving with 110 yards
on a second-best eight catches along with a score, the overwhelming
majority of which came with the first-team offense. Interpret this as a
sign that the targets are going to be there for him this season,
especially in the red zone, where defenses can't match up well with him.
I referenced earlier this offseason, Chip Kelly used tight
ends more last year than all but one of his seasons as a college coach.
Ertz isn't going to fade away or lose a lot of work to Brent Celek.
I'd take him ahead of: Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed
Ladarius Green, TE, Chargers
Green's preseason hasn't been filled with highlight reel receptions or
big stats, but he's been working a good amount with the Chargers
first-team offense. He's even tied with the team lead in receptions with
five -- and the only starting receiver/tight end with at least three
grabs. The thought here is that the Bolts have a stud wideout in Keenan Allen and a tried-and-true favorite in Malcom Floyd along with Antonio Gates.
Green is their next best player and getting his 6-foot-6, 240-pound body
on the field will cause all sorts of mismatch problems. Head coach Mike
McCoy said he wished he used Green more last season and seems like he
won't hesitate to go with Green this season.
I'd take him ahead of: Martellus Bennett, Eric Ebron, Antonio Gates
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