2014 Draft Prep: Picking No. 10 overall
Picking from the No. 10 spot on Draft Day has its advantages. Our Dave Richard builds two distinctly different teams from the tenth overall position.
Pick No. 1 | Pick
No. 2 | Pick
No. 3 | Pick
No. 4 | Pick
No. 5 | Pick
No. 7 | Pick
No. 8 | Pick
No. 9 | Pick
No. 11 | Pick
Pick No. 7 | Pick No. 8 | Pick No. 9 | Pick No. 11 | Pick No. 12
What's that saying about two out of 15 not being bad?
Oh right, that's not a saying. That's a consolation prize for drawing the 10th pick in a Fantasy draft.
Ask any owner if they could land two of their Top 15 and they'd rush to say yes. But add the caveat that it means not getting a consensus stud running back or Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham and they'd probably cry on the inside a little bit.
But picking 10th isn't that bad. This is a spot where coming away with two running backs with your first two picks is encouraged, because it should mean two Top 12 running backs. It also is acceptable to go with a stud running back and an elite receiver, bolstering two starting spots without hesitation. And when you're up in Rounds 3 and 4 you can pick off two more very good players you'll probably not bother to bench.
The other cool thing about going 10th is that you can sabotage the plans of those at Picks 11 and 12. There are examples of that below, but the general idea is that you can use their needs against them -- if they need a quarterback and you do too, you can take one before they can in the odd-numbered rounds. Or if you need a quarterback and they each have one already, and it's not quite the time to take a backup, you can probably wait a round and steal a running back or a receiver before they get their paws on them. It's beautiful to have an edge in drafting -- creating value is what makes a good draft a great draft.
Prepare for your draft by breaking down the running backs ranked sixth through 10th. You're promised one of those for sure. Rank them so that when you're finally up to pick you'll know exactly who you want. If you're lucky, one will be back in your hands in Round 2. Hard to argue with that!
Editor's note: The percentages listed are what position you should target based on that round for each pick.
|Round 1 - Standard||QB||5%||RB||75%||WR||15%||TE||5%|
|Round 1 - PPR||QB||0%||RB||75%||WR||20%||TE||5%|
Most owners won't have to worry about picking Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham at 10 -- they'll be gone. Instead the best plan of attack is to start with a running back and then re-evaluate your options in Round 2 with the expectation that an elite receiver or very good running back will be worth your while at 15th overall. If you had an earlier pick you'd more than likely take a running back with a shot at 20 touches per week along with the goal-line job. You can still find those kinds of backs at 10th overall, they're just not coming off of prolific seasons like the ones taken earlier. That's pretty much the only difference. Big deal? That's up to you, but there will be a back you'll end up warming up to. As for quarterbacks, you're in good shape to find one from Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in Round 2 -- if you want one of them. In PPR leagues you might consider a receiver, but the best ones will still be around when you pick in five spots.
Players you can get here (Standard): Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, Alfred Morris, Peyton Manning
Players you can get here (PPR): Giovani Bernard, DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Eddie Lacy, Brandon Marshall
My selection at No. 10 standard: Marshawn Lynch
My selection at No. 10 PPR: Arian Foster
|Round 2 - Standard||QB||10%||RB||50%||WR||35%||TE||5%|
|Round 2 - PPR||QB||0%||RB||40%||WR||50%||TE||10%|
This is a tough call, and one that will be made based on personal preference with a nod toward your league's scoring system. When you're up here, 14 names will have been called. Most of them will have been running backs, but there will still be some rushers with great appeal on the board -- names like Giovani Bernard, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy and Doug Martin. There will also be some top-tier receivers like Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall. Plus there's a chance Peyton Manning will be there. What's a Fantasy owner to do? If it's a standard league, I'd lean toward the running back (wait until you see what receivers are left in Rounds 3 and 4) and if it's a PPR league, I'd lean toward the receiver assuming a highly targeted back isn't on the board. Manning's another good option if he's there, but the hunch is that you should go RB-RB or RB-WR, assuming Top 10 options at running back and Top 5 options at receiver are in the mix. You'll be able to get a quarterback later.
Players you can get here (Standard): Giovani Bernard, Dez Bryant, Peyton Manning, Doug Martin, Julio Jones, Zac Stacy, Julio Jones
Players you can get here (PPR): Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Le'Veon Bell, Andre Ellington
My selection at No. 15 standard: Giovani Bernard
My selection at No. 15 PPR: Julio Jones
|Round 3 - Standard||QB||10%||RB||30%||WR||40%||TE||20%|
|Round 3 - PPR||QB||5%||RB||30%||WR||45%||TE||20%|
By the time you're up in this round the running backs will have dropped off but the receivers haven't. It'll be worse in standard leagues than PPR leagues. Expect to go receiver here while the gettin' is still really good, particularly if the owners in Picks 11 and 12 went running back heavy and are aiming for receivers too. The real bonus is that if you started your draft with two running backs, you'll be thrilled with who's available, not just at this pick but also in Round 4. And if you went running back and receiver in Rounds 1 and 2, you should be satisfied going with a receiver and then a back in Round 4. Only a Top 3 quarterback in a standard league and just Peyton in a PPR league would change the plan.
Players you can get here (Standard): Bishop Sankey, Michael Crabtree, Larry Fitzgerald, Julius Thomas, Andre Johnson
Players you can get here (PPR): Bishop Sankey, Peyton Manning, Michael Crabtree, Julius Thomas, Pierre Garcon
My selection at No. 34 standard: Larry Fitzgerald
My selection at No. 34 PPR: Pierre Garcon
|Round 4 - Standard||QB||15%||RB||35%||WR||40%||TE||10%|
|Round 4 - PPR||QB||15%||RB||35%||WR||35%||TE||15%|
How many receivers do you have? If it's one or none, get one while you can still pick a player you can feel reasonably good about. If you have two or more, then look toward the best available running back. Pretty straightforward. If Julius Thomas falls here, pounce. If an elite quarterback is here you could also think about it, but know this: By the time you're up in Round 5, there will be a very limited supply of appealing running backs and wideouts, whereas quarterbacks and tight ends will start heating up in Round 6.
Players you can get here (Standard): Michael Crabtree, C.J. Spiller, Pierre Garcon, Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Shane Vereen, Matthew Stafford
Players you can get here (PPR): Michael Crabtree, C.J. Spiller, Vincent Jackson, Drew Brees, Keenan Allen
My selection at No. 39 standard: Michael Crabtree
My selection at No. 39 PPR: C.J. Spiller
|Round 5 - Standard||QB||30%||RB||25%||WR||30%||TE||15%|
|Round 5 - PPR||QB||25%||RB||30%||WR||25%||TE||20%|
If you've snared two running backs and two wide receivers, you should be in the perfect spot to nab a quarterback. Matthew Stafford would be an incredible bargain but expect Colin Kaepernick to be a name in the mix, particularly in standard leagues (we'd wait on him in a PPR). If Vernon Davis tumbles to 58th overall, that's a better choice than the quarterback, since you can still get a real good passer in Round 6. You could also apply the Davis advice to any running back or receiver you see on the board that floats your boat. Maybe the only motivation to take a quarterback here is if he's a small bargain (a prerequisite for drafting one) and if the owners in Picks 11 and 12 don't have a passer yet. You can beat them to the punch.
Players you can get here (Standard): Vernon Davis, Colin Kaepernick, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, Rashad Jennings, Chris Johnson
Players you can get here (PPR): Frank Gore, Matthew Stafford, Rashad Jennings, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Witten
My selection at No. 58 standard: Colin Kaepernick
My selection at No. 58 PPR: Matthew Stafford
|Round 6 - Standard||QB||30%||RB||30%||WR||20%||TE||20%|
|Round 6 - PPR||QB||25%||RB||30%||WR||25%||TE||20%|
This is just as good of a spot to take a quarterback as it was in Round 5. It's also pretty much the last chance you'll have at adding one of the second-tier tight ends to your team (Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Jason Witten). But above all, it's probably also the last chance at finding a running back or receiver you'd comfortably take as your flex. Aim for a rusher or pass catcher with a shot at 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. You'll be surprised how many there are who fit that qualification. That might be enough to sway you in that direction since there will still be some good values at quarterback and tight end in Round 7.
Players you can get here (Standard): Matt Ryan, Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta, DeSean Jackson, Ben Tate, Jordan Cameron, Andrew Luck
Players you can get here (PPR): Rashad Jennings, Golden Tate, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Jordan Cameron, Ben Tate, Dennis Pitta
My selection at No. 63 standard: Torrey Smith
My selection at No. 63 PPR: Rashad Jennings
|Round 7 - Standard||QB||20%||RB||35%||WR||30%||TE||15%|
|Round 7 - PPR||QB||20%||RB||35%||WR||30%||TE||15%|
One of the perks of the No. 10 slot is seeing what your opponents need at Picks 11 and 12 and adjusting your needs accordingly. For instance, if you're up in Round 7 and need a tight end but both the teams picking after you (and before you in the ensuing round) already have a tight end, you can wait. Take another position player first and double back in Round 8. It also works for the other positions -- for instance, say the rival teams are thin on running backs when you're up in Round 7. Take one yourself (someone with 200-touch potential), leaving less for them to pick from. Finally, expect to see the big-time breakout players start to get noticed in Round 7. It's never a bad idea to take them since we're basically at the mid-point of the draft and you don't have much to lose.
Players you can get here (Standard): Maurice Jones-Drew, T.Y. Hilton,
Dolphins RBs, Eric Decker, Sammy Watkins
Players you can get here (PPR): Fred Jackson, Steven Jackson, Sammy Watkins, Andrew Luck, Terrance West, Darren Sproles
My selection at No. 82 standard: Lamar Miller
My selection at No. 82 PPR: Sammy Watkins
|Round 8 - Standard||QB||20%||RB||35%||WR||25%||TE||20%|
|Round 8 - PPR||QB||20%||RB||30%||WR||30%||TE||20%|
The plan here is simple if you waited through Round 7 to take a player you knew your opponents would pass on. But if you didn't have such a plan, maybe now is a good time to double check your lineup and see if there are any empty spots. No quarterback? No tight end? Those positions will start to get gross soon, so think about going that way. If not, there's always the opportunity to get deeper at receiver and running back. In fact, this is when you'll find sleepers as well as high-profile handcuff rushers and modest, older players that still carry some value.
Players you can get here (Standard): Fred Jackson, Mike Evans, Devonta Freeman, Knowshon Moreno, Jordan Reed, Brandin Cooks
Players you can get here (PPR): Darren Sproles, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Maurice Jones-Drew, Tony Romo, Lamar Miller
My selection at No. 87 standard: Knowshon Moreno
My selection at No. 87 PPR: Greg Olsen
|Round 9 - Standard||QB||15%||RB||35%||WR||30%||TE||20%|
|Round 9 - PPR||QB||15%||RB||30%||WR||35%||TE||20%|
Turn your focus to sleeper and breakout candidates in Round 9 and beyond. The cool thing is that you can pick players who double as sleepers/breakouts. That's a smart move -- always better to have a guy come out firing in your lineup, helping your Fantasy team dominate. To that end, Round 9 might see the likes of Jay Cutler, Kyle Rudolph, Rueben Randle and Zach Ertz get taken, with some running backs that double as handcuffs getting in the mix here and in Round 10. And don't pass up the old guys -- some of them are still worth a draft pick and Round 9.
Players you can get here (Standard): Jay Cutler, Rueben Randle, Kyle Rudolph, Andre Williams, Reggie Wayne
Players you can get here (PPR): Marvin Jones, Christine Michael, Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Hill, Charles Sims, Tre Mason
My selection at No. 106 standard: Kyle Rudolph
My selection at No. 106 PPR: Reggie Wayne
|Round 10 - Standard||QB||15%||RB||35%||WR||35%||TE||10%||K||0%||DST||5%|
|Round 10 - PPR||QB||15%||RB||35%||WR||35%||TE||10%||K||0%||DST||5%|
Keep putting pressure on your opponents by picking off appealing players. How's that for advice? PICK GOOD PLAYERS. Seriously, there are still some guys who either have underrated skills or are one injury away from dominating playing time just sitting there this late in drafts. Those are the kinds of players that get picked in Round 10. Taking a DST is another option and it's not a bad option if you're really happy with your first nine picks. Just make sure it's the best DST in Fantasy -- the Seahawks have finished in the Top 6 each of the last three years. That's good.
Players you can get here (Standard): Philip Rivers, Dwayne Bowe, Charles Sims, Riley Cooper, Tavon Austin, Carlos Hyde, Seahawks
Players you can get here (PPR): Carlos Hyde, Hakeem Nicks, Tavon Austin, Stepfan Taylor, Chris Ivory, Seahawks DST
My selection at No. 111 standard: Philip Rivers
My selection at No. 111 PPR: Carlos Hyde
|Round 11 - Standard||QB||15%||RB||35%||WR||30%||TE||15%||K||0%||DST||5%|
|Round 11 - PPR||QB||15%||RB||30%||WR||35%||TE||15%||K||0%||DST||5%|
These are either fun picks or "necessary evil" picks. If you're drafting a player who has potential for a nice year, really what's the harm? It's Round 11 after all. The "necessary evil" is picking a backup quarterback or a handcuff running back, someone you know you need but isn't overly flashy. That's just being smart, not necessarily fun. If things work out for you, a player or two you were looking at in Round 10 makes his way back in Round 11.
Players you can get here (Standard and PPR): Doug Baldwin, Dexter McCluster, Harry Douglas, Lance Dunbar, Ben Roethlisberger, Jordan Matthews
My selection at No. 130 standard: Harry Douglas
My selection at No. 130 PPR: Andre Brown
|Round 12 - Standard||QB||10%||RB||30%||WR||30%||TE||10%||K||0%||DST||20%|
|Round 12 - PPR||QB||10%||RB||30%||WR||30%||TE||10%||K||0%||DST||20%|
This pick is early in Round 12, meaning that when you're up again in Round 13 (the second-to-last round), a number of owners will have already taken a DST. So ... how much do you value DSTs? If you don't value them much, or if you have a sleeper in mind that you want to grab, then go ahead and pass on a DST. Otherwise, this is your chance to snake a DST from the rest of the league and still get some kind of sleeper or handcuff or backup or whatever in the next round. It's an option, particularly if you can still get a Top 5 DST.
Players you can get here (Standard and PPR): Top 5 DST, Russell Wilson, Justin Hunter, Kelvin Benjamin, any middle- to low-end running back handcuff
My selection at No. 135 standard: Travaris Cadet
My selection at No. 135 PPR: 49ers DST
|Round 13 - Standard||QB||10%||RB||20%||WR||15%||TE||10%||K||20%||DST||25%|
|Round 13 - PPR||QB||10%||RB||20%||WR||15%||TE||10%||K||20%||DST||25%|
If you need a DST, look for one with a good early schedule or one that has added an infusion of talent this offseason. But if you don't need a DST (maybe you took one already, maybe you don't need to draft one) then take a big swing at a running back or receiver who could develop into a stud. Think younger than older, not necessarily a rookie, and someone with a shot at playing right away. Let's put one last thought into your head: What about a kicker? Some call it crazy to take a kicker before the final round of a draft, but it might be worth doing if you can get the top kicker in the game, Stephen Gostkowski. Here's the thinking: If you're the first to get a kicker and everyone else in your league is going to take a kicker in the next round, the guy you'd pick here has a really good chance of making it back to you in Round 14 and you have arguably the best kicker in Fantasy.
Players you can get here (Standard and PPR): Any middle- to low-end
running back handcuff, any DST not ranked in the Top 5, any kicker
My selection at No. 154 standard: Stephen Gostkowski
My selection at No. 154 PPR: Stephen Gostkowski
|Round 14 - Standard||QB||0%||RB||5%||WR||0%||TE||0%||K||80%||DST||15%|
|Round 14 - PPR||QB||0%||RB||5%||WR||0%||TE||0%||K||80%||DST||15%|
And now if you've already taken a kicker you can pretty much get whichever DST you'd like. Or if you have a kicker and a DST, feel free to gorge on one last sleeper, perhaps a running back? Naturally, if you're like most of the Fantasy universe, this will be a kicker pick. Make it someone with a good track record of success and someone who plays with a good offense.
Players you can get here (Standard and PPR): A kicker or whatever else
My selection at No. 159 standard: Bears DST
My selection at No. 159 PPR: Bryce Brown
Here's what the teams look like following the draft:
The two teams
|QB||Colin Kaepernick||Matthew Stafford|
|RB||Marshawn Lynch||Arian Foster|
|RB||Giovani Bernard||C.J. Spiller|
|WR||Larry Fitzgerald||Julio Jones|
|WR||Michael Crabtree||Pierre Garcon|
|FLEX||Torrey Smith||Rashad Jennings|
|TE||Kyle Rudolph||Greg Olsen|
|K||Stephen Gostkowski||Stephen Gostkowski|
|DST||Bears DST||49ers DST|
|BENCH||Lamar Miller||Sammy Watkins|
|BENCH||Knowshon Moreno||Reggie Wayne|
|BENCH||Philip Rivers||Carlos Hyde|
|BENCH||Harry Douglas||Andre Brown|
|BENCH||Travaris Cadet||Bryce Brown|
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