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In the third version of my busts column, I'm going strictly by Average Draft Position and looking at players I don't want this year based on their current value through the second full week of preseason games.
You can see the players highlighted in Busts 1.0 and Busts 2.0 . And there are some players from those lists I would remove now since their circumstance or value has changed.
For example, it appears Carlos Hyde, Rob Kelley and Spencer Ware have solidified their starting jobs when it looked a little bleak for them coming out of the NFL Draft. Keenan Allen got a boost with Mike Williams (back) getting hurt, and Kelvin Benjamin got himself in shape for training camp.
There could be things that change for the players on this list as well over the final two weeks of the preseason, which might coincide with your Draft Day. With that in mind, you'll want to check back to this list as we'll update it as news warrants.
For Busts 3.0, I'm going to use the ADP from Fantasy Pros instead of CBS Sports because that list could be influenced by my rankings, as well Dave Richard and Heath Cummings. I want an independent source, and Fantasy Pros compiles ADP from five different sites.
You might disagree with the players listed here, and there are some repeat names from the first two columns because they are still being drafted too soon. But these are guys I plan to avoid in the majority of my leagues because their price will likely be too expensive on Draft Day.
And remember, everything you need can be found on our
Cam Newton Carolina Panthers QB
|Newton will be better than he was last season, but it's hard to say by how much. And I don't expect him to finish as a top-10 quarterback in 2017 even though he's being drafted that way. He's still working his way back from shoulder surgery in March, which limited his practice time in training camp. But the worst news for Newton this year could be the expected downturn with his rushing production, and Panthers coach Ron Rivera wants Newton to rely less on his legs this season. Newton had a career-low 90 carries for 359 yards and five touchdowns last season, and he might stay in that range this year after rushing for at least 539 yards in each of his first five years in the NFL. Newton might have the best receiving corps of his career with Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess, Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, but he's still a career 58.4 percent passer. His rushing ability made him an exceptional Fantasy option, and if that production slips, even slightly, Newton loses value. I would only draft him as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in Round 8 or later.|
Marshawn Lynch Oakland Raiders RB
|We're all glad that Lynch decided to come out of retirement after sitting out last season, and it's a great story that he gets a chance to play for his hometown team in Oakland. But should he really be drafted as a No. 1 running back in the beginning of the third round? As great as Lynch once was, he's still 31 and didn't play last season. Now, while he does step into the starting job vacated by Latavius Murray, who scored 12 rushing touchdowns last year, Lynch should still contend with second-year running backs Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington taking away touches, which happened to Murray in 2016. The Raiders' stout offensive line is also not as solidified, at least as of now, with left tackle Donald Penn away from the team due to a holdout. Lynch should still have several good moments this season, but he's not worth his current price. If you can draft him in Round 5 as a No. 2 running back, that's the time he should come off the board.|
Ty Montgomery Green Bay Packers RB
|Montgomery was featured in Busts 2.0, but since then I started to come around on him based on all the positive reports out of Green Bay. But little by little, things are starting to work against Montgomery, and I don't like his ADP. Rookie Jamaal Williams has proven to be better in pass protection, which is big for the Packers when the star attraction is Aaron Rodgers. Montgomery also fumbled in the first preseason game against Philadelphia. And now he's dealing with a leg injury, which will keep him out of the second preseason game against Washington. Williams could potentially leapfrog Montgomery on the depth chart, which wouldn't be a huge surprise. Remember, while Montgomery had several positive moments in 2016, he wasn't exactly a great Fantasy option. He only had one game with double digits in carries despite the Packers being depleted in their backfield, and he only scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league three times. Williams is being drafted as the No. 50 running back at No. 162 overall. That's good value. Montgomery, right now, is not.|
LeGarrette Blount Philadelphia Eagles RB
|Blount is an obvious bust candidate because there's no way he can repeat his performance from 2016. In helping the Patriots win the Super Bowl, Blount led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns while also getting 299 carries for 1,161 yards. He's not going to come anywhere close to that in Philadelphia, and there should be some fear of a complete drop-off for a running back who turns 31 in December. He does benefit with one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but the Eagles will also give plenty of work to Darren Sproles and potentially mix in Wendell Smallwood and Donnel Pumphrey. I'm OK with Blount as a mid-range No. 3 Fantasy running back because of his touchdown potential, but this ADP makes him a low-end starter. Just keep in mind that last year was the first time he's scored more than seven touchdowns in his career and just the second time he's had more than 800 rushing yards.|
Adrian Peterson New Orleans Saints RB
|Name recognition and history really go a long way based on where Lynch, Blount and Peterson are being drafted, especially since all three are over 30. At least with Lynch and Blount they have the chance to be a starter in Week 1. Peterson would need Mark Ingram to get hurt for that to happen, and Ingram should remain the starter for the Saints all season. It's actually shocking that Peterson is being drafted just one round later than Ingram on average because the expectation should be that Peterson will be a better version of Tim Hightower this season as the No. 2 running back in New Orleans. Last year, Hightower had 133 carries for 548 yards and four touchdowns and 22 catches for 200 yards and one touchdown. Maybe Peterson gets another 100 total yards and a couple of more touchdowns, but he's 32 and coming off a season where he was limited to three games because of a knee injury. He should not be drafted before Round 8, and Ingram is the Saints running back to target this year.|
Allen Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars WR
|This doesn't have as much to do with Robinson as it does with the talent around him, namely at quarterback. After last year's disaster, it appears like things are getting worse in Jacksonville with Blake Bortles on the verge of being benched for Chad Henne. Think about that for a minute. Maybe Henne will be an upgrade for Robinson, but he struggled last season with Bortles. Robinson was one of just three receivers with at least 129 targets to finish outside the top 24 in Fantasy production, along with DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall. As talented as Robinson is, he needs a competent passer to get him the ball, and he could falter as a fourth-round pick, just as he did in 2016. I still have Robinson as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver, but he makes me nervous given his quarterback situation. The Jaguars also could be more run-dependent this season, which will also hurt Robinson in a negative way.|
Sammy Watkins Los Angeles Rams WR
|I was so excited about Watkins this season. He appeared to be healthy after last year's foot injury, and he was poised for a breakout campaign in a contract year and with Tyrod Taylor back with the Bills. Well, Taylor didn't go anywhere, but Watkins did when he was traded to the Rams following the first preseason game. While Watkins can still perform at a high level in Los Angeles, there are three things working against him. For starters, Rams quarterback Jared Goff was mediocre at best as a rookie and has plenty to prove. Watkins now plays in a brutal division in the NFC West, where he should face Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson and Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman twice each. And you still have the risk of injury with Watkins until he proves otherwise. I consider Watkins a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver, and I wouldn't draft him until Round 5 at the earliest. Maybe Goff takes a huge step forward this season and helps Watkins dominate. And maybe coach Sean McVay gets the best out of Watkins in an offense that desperately needed a No. 1 receiver. Watkins could be a beast this year if things go right, but he could also flop, especially with a pick in the fourth round.|
Jarvis Landry Miami Dolphins WR
|Landry has been amazing so far in the NFL, and he's actually tied with Odell Beckham for the most receptions for a player in the first three years of their career with 288. Both should pass the four-year record of 342 catches from Anquan Boldin this year, but there's a big difference between Landry and Beckham -- touchdowns. Landry has 13 over three seasons, and Beckham has 35. Now, it's not fair to compare Landry to Beckham, but Beckham doesn't have to work with a new quarterback like Landry does with Jay Cutler replacing the injured Ryan Tannehill (knee). Cutler and Landry need to develop a rapport, and Cutler seems to have big eyes for DeVante Parker, who is more in line with the type of receivers to have success with Cutler over his career. We're not completely giving up on Landry, especially in PPR. But it's hard to justify drafting him in Round 4 in a standard league with the quarterback change and Landry's history of struggling to find the end zone.|
Tyreek Hill Kansas City Chiefs WR
|Hill is the one player on this list who wouldn't surprise me if I'm wrong. It's hard to bet against his big-play ability, and he plays in an offense that needs him -- desperately. But I'm not sure he's worth drafting toward the end of the fourth round or beginning of the fifth as the No. 22 receiver. He was a standout as a rookie last season when he finished as the No. 20 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues with 61 catches for 593 yards and six touchdowns on 83 targets and 24 carries for 267 yards and three touchdowns. I expect his catches and yards to go up, and the six receiving touchdowns are realistic to repeat. But the nine total offensive touchdowns will come down, and we're banking on Alex Smith to morph into a downfield passer to support Hill's upside. Let's keep in mind that just three years ago Smith went an entire season without throwing a touchdown to his wide receivers. Yes, that happened. I'll take Hill in Round 6 if he's there, but I'm not reaching for him at his current ADP.|
Delanie Walker Tennessee Titans TE
|Think about the Titans receiving corps over the past two seasons and the impact it had on Walker. In 2015, Walker played with guys like Dorial Green-Beckham, Harry Douglas and Kendall Wright, and he had 94 catches for 1,088 yards and six touchdowns on 134 targets. Then last year, Tennessee upgraded its receiving corps slightly with the additions of Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe, and Walker took a dip in production to 65 catches for 800 yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets. Now, this season, the Titans are loaded with Eric Decker, Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor joining Matthews, and Walker is going to suffer. He should still be a prominent weapon for Marcus Mariota, but Walker should continue to trend down with his targets, receptions and yards. And if his touchdown production starts to slide, it could be messy for Fantasy owners who invest in Walker this year. Let someone else draft Walker at his current ADP, and you can have potentially better options like Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry and Jack Doyle at a reduced price.|
Martellus Bennett Green Bay Packers TE
|Imagine a college student having to transfer from Princeton to Harvard. That doesn't seem like a downgrade, right? That's kind of like what Bennett is doing this season in going from Tom Brady to Aaron Rodgers. Credit Bennett for his career choice in signing with Green Bay this offseason after winning a Super Bowl in New England, but he might be overvalued as a Fantasy option. One Fantasy analyst who I respect told me Bennett was his No. 5 ranked tight end, and I'd be surprised if he finished that high. I don't even like his ADP as the No. 9 tight end off the board. Last year, with Gronkowski out for half of the season, Bennett finished as the No. 7 Fantasy tight end in standard leagues. But Rodgers hasn't really relied on his tight ends as a focal point during his career, with Jared Cook having some great moments in the playoffs last year when Jordy Nelson was hurt and Richard Rodgers having a quality year in 2015 with 58 catches for 510 yards and eight touchdowns. Before that it was Jermichael Finley in 2011 with 55 catches for 767 yards and eight touchdowns. Bennett might be the best tight end Rodgers has ever had, but his seven touchdowns last season were a career high. He also has just two seasons over 60 catches and 750 yards. I'll settle for Bennett in Round 9 or later, but I won't draft him in Round 7 or as a top-10 option.|