Touchdowns are one of the hardest things to predict in the NFL, and I ascribe to the theory that we're better off focusing on opportunity rather than scores when projecting in Fantasy. But past touchdown performance does play a huge part in setting ADP each year, so it's far from unimportant.
With that in mind, I sat out to find eight wide receivers who were outliers in terms of touchdown rate in 2016. In theory, these guys should regress towards the norm, and it's quite possible they're being over- or undervalued based on last year's touchdowns.
As a quick aside, I know how bent out of shape people can get when I say regression and then say someone should be better. I also do not like the term "positive regression." What we're talking about is regressing from an extreme to the norm, but just to keep the comments section under control, we'll lay this out as positive regression and negative regression candidates. I'm sorry in advance to the math majors.
| 1 | 
Julio Jones
Atlanta WR
|
| Julio Jones is one of the best receivers in the NFL, so it's kind of weird to think he could actually be better. He hasn't caught double-digit touchdowns since 2012, and last year's touchdown-every-21.5-targets wasn't that far off his career average of 19.4. But when you add in the fact that Jones only played 14 games last season, it creates an opportunity for a 50 percent increase in touchdowns. The Falcons have talked about using Jones more in the red zone, and with their variety of weapons it may actually work this time. 2017 touchdown expectation: 9 | |
| 2 | 
Amari Cooper
Oakland WR
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| Amari Cooper is another elite receiver who has had disappointing touchdown production. Yes, I said he's elite. He's only the fourth receiver ever to start a career with 150 receptions and 2,200 receiving yards in his first two years. The other three are Odell Beckham, A.J. Green and Marques Colston. Cooper caught 11 more passes in 2016 than he did as a rookie but scored one less touchdown. That's largely because he went 0/7 on targets inside the ten yard line. He's too good for that trend to continue. 2017 touchdown expectation: 8 | |
| 3 | 
Mike Wallace
Baltimore WR
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| It seems like Mike Wallace has had an up-and-down career, but the truth is he's had one season in his eight-year career when he finished outside of the top 30 wide receivers in Fantasy. What has been a bit up and down are his touchdowns. Wallace averaged a touchdown every 12.5 targets his first four seasons in Pittsburgh. That fell to one score every 17.6 targets his two seasons in Miami. Last year he had 116 targets and just four touchdowns. Even if he only scores once every 20 targets, you should expect a bounce-back because he's going to be a target monster. 2017 touchdown expectation: 6 | |
| 4 | 
Stefon Diggs
Minnesota WR
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| Stefon Diggs profiles as a slot receiver who just won't score any touchdowns, right? Kind of. As a rookie he scored once every 21 targets, which isn't terrible for a guy who profiles as a 120-plus target receiver over a full season. You could compare Diggs to Jarvis Landry, but I kind of think Landry's poor touchdown numbers are a bit of a fluke as well. If Diggs stays healthy, he'll at least double last year's three touchdowns. 2017 touchdown expectation: 6 | |
Honorable Mention: Larry Fitzgerald, Terrelle Pryor, DeSean Jackson
| 1 | 
Tyreek Hill
Kansas City WR
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| Tyreek Hill only scored six receiving touchdowns, so this may seem like an odd choice. But he also scored three touchdowns on the ground and three more in the return game. In 2017 the team wants him to be their No. 1 receiver (as long as you don't count Travis Kelce) and will limit his exposure in the run game. It's also highly unlikely he scores on an eighth of his run attempts again. Hill is a fine borderline No. 2 receiver, but don't expect a big leap. 2017 touchdown expectation: 6 | |
| 2 | 
Davante Adams
Green Bay WR
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| Davante Adams is your touchdown regression poster child. Adams was the third receiver in the past decade to score 12 or more touchdowns with fewer than 1,000 yards receiving. It just doesn't happen outside of Green Bay, and it doesn't happen in back-to-back seasons. Adams should still be a reliable No. 2 wide receiver, but expecting production like you got in 2016 will leave you disappointed. 2017 touchdown expectation: 8 | |
| 3 | 
Rishard Matthews
Tennessee WR
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| Rishard Matthews would be an obvious selection for regression even if the team hadn't added Eric Decker and Corey Davis. Matthews caught a touchdown once every 12 targets in 2016. He had eight touchdowns in 170 targets before that breakout. His 2016 wasn't sustainable when he was the only show in town, and it sure isn't now. 2017 touchdown expectation: 5 | |
| 4 | 
Sterling Shepard
N.Y. Giants WR
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| Sterling Shepard scored eight touchdowns in 2016, and like Matthews, he's got more company this year. The Giants added Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram, both players who should have an impact in the red zone. I say should because Marshall was terrible last year and Engram is a rookie tight end. I still believe that Shepard is the team's second best pass-catcher, but even I wouldn't expect eight touchdowns. If you think Marshall will be good again, you should just avoid Shepard altogether. 2017 touchdown expectation: 6 | |
Honorable Mention: Jordy Nelson, Kenny Stills, Donte Moncrief
